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The Dallas Stars can close out their first-round series with a win over the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday as they enter the contest with a 3-2 series lead. The Stars won Game 5 in dominant 6-2 fashion to take the series lead over a veteran Avs team that won the Stanley Cup in 2022. If Dallas wants to wrap things up in Game 6, it will have to do so in Colorado. If the series needs a seventh game, it goes back to Dallas.  

The Avalanche are -193 favorites on the money line at home (bet $193 to win $100), according to SportsLine consensus odds, and the Stars are +160 road underdogs (bet $100 to win $160). The over/under is 6 total goals, with the Over favored at -120. 

Colorado has plenty of stars on its roster, with none bigger than Nathan MacKinnon, who led the NHL in assists and ranked second in points. He has seven total points in this series against Dallas, with three coming in the Avs' 5-1 win in Game 1. His total points prop comes in at 1.5, and the SportsLine Projection Model has one side of that prop rated as a 5-star play. That prop is one of three legs of today's NHL same-game parlay for Stars-Avs. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, and you can see all of the model's top-rated prop picks for every game under the "Prop Picks" tab. There are ratings of up to five stars assigned for all sorts of different prop bets for players. Those picks can be key for creating winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy as well as same-game parlays on any available betting site. 

Here are the SportsLine model's three top-rated player prop picks for Thursday's Stars-Avalanche Game 6 clash, including what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay. 

Stars-Avalanche SGP (+338)

  • Nathan MacKinnon Under 1.5 total points (-146): 5 stars 
  • Brock Nelson Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-146): 5 stars
  • Martin Necas Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-184): 5 stars 

All three of the model's top prop plays for Thursday's Game 6 are are rated at 5 stars, and all three players involved are Colorado skaters. We'll start with MacKinnon, who's arguably the biggest star in this game. With seven points through five games this series, he's averaging 1.4 points per game. But over the last four games, he's averaging a single point per contest. The model is projecting MacKinnon to score just 0.4 points in Game 6. He's gone Under his total points prop in each of his last five home games with an average of 0.8 points per contest. Nelson came to Colorado from the New York Islanders in a midseason trade and has two assists this series. The model is taking the Over on his 1.5 total shots on goal prop, projecting the veteran center to record 2.5 shots on goal. Nelson is averaging 2.2 shots on goal per game this series, and he's averaging 3.4 shots on goal over his last five home games, all of which he went Over his prop line. Necas also joined the Avalanche this year at the trade deadline and like Nelson, is projected to go Over 1.5 shots on goal. The model projects Necas to record 2.9 shots on goal in Game 6, and he's gone Over that prop line in eight of his last 15 games against teams with a winning record, averaging 2.7 shots on goal per game over that span.