England squad for Euro 2024 qualifiers; Raheem Sterling out with hamstring issue amid concerning dip in form

While Sterling's absence seems routine, he could be nearing the end of his time with the Three Lions

On the face of it there should be little cause for Raheem Sterling to feel concern at his absence from England's squad for their Euro 2024 qualifiers. There is precious little that anyone in Gareth Southgate's party could do against Malta and North Macedonia that would prompt a serious reevaluation of their standing among the Three Lions. Equally Sterling has already proven on innumerable occasions his value on the international stage.

Sterling's absence was, the England manager noted, as much the player's decision as anyone else's. "I spoke with him a week or so ago, a general catch-up," said Southgate. "He is not happy with his condition physically, carrying a hamstring problem. He wasn't really in consideration. He doesn't think he is operating at the level he needs." It takes a significant level of certainty as to your standing to be able to withdraw yourself from contention at a time when, even if you are playing through an issue, you are starting matches for your club side.

Sterling has been one of Southgate's most trusted lieutenants over the last six and a bit years. Following a down year with Manchester City, he was England's player of the tournament when they reached the final of Euro 2020. Had he not been forced to return home due to a burglary of his family home in December, he may well have been a starter in the knockout stages of the World Cup. The 28 year old delivers whatever is required of him when he dons an England shirt, whether that is chasing long balls in behind, coming back in defense or delivering clutch goals. Every indication is that Sterling remains part of England's long term.

It will take a trying set of circumstances for this coach to lose faith in one of his most consistent performers. Unfortunately for both, that is exactly what Sterling finds himself in at Chelsea. This season could well be the first in a decade, going back to when he was first establishing himself in the Liverpool side, that he fails to reach double figures for goals in all competitions. The hamstring issue that has kept him out of contention for England has troubled Sterling throughout 2023, sidelining him for most of January and March. In each of the last six seasons, the forward hit well over 3,000 total minutes in all competitions. He is still 46 short of 2,500 this season.

Twenty3

It is not, however, immediately apparent that minutes alone would fix the output. Premier League shot data is publicly available since 2017-18. In each of those seasons Sterling averaged well in excess of two shots per 90 minutes, clearing the three mark in 2019-20. In his first year with Chelsea he has not even got all that close, averaging 1.85. His non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 have similarly cratered, a player who would routinely average 0.5 over the course of a season now at 0.28. It's the same story for his npxG per shot. He is taking fewer shots and they are worse. Those shots from around the penalty spot that were his bread and butter at City are almost nowhere to be seen in his Chelsea shot map above.

Twenty3

Sterling might be 28, perhaps the back end of most players physical peaks, but having broken into the Liverpool side as a teenager he is an old 28 with 402 club level 90 minute games as well as 82 England caps. It's not unimaginable that this season was the start of the downswing on the age curve. However the likeliest explanation is that this merely reflects a player having moved from European football's most consistent attacking force to European football's most consistent comedic force. Bad organisations make for bad teams that draw bad performances out of good players. 

Chelsea are not going to become a good team overnight even if Mauricio Pochettino is all they hope he can be (and if he is could that spell trouble for Sterling playing under a coach who likes to build with youngsters?). Outgoings may clear some of the logjam at Sterling's favoured position on the left of a front three but at the very least Mykhailo Mudryk and Christopher Nkunku will still be around, more recent big money signings who will have to get minutes in a season with no European football. 

When Sterling was struggling at City it was far easier for Southgate to trust that he could deliver on the international stage, just as he is doing with Kalvin Phillips in next month's qualifiers. Training with Pep Guardiola, one could reasonably argue, is as valuable as first team football with mid-tier Premier League clubs. But when Sterling is fighting for form with that very level of team as Marcus Rashford, Jack Grealish and Bukayo Saka shine on the Champions League stage, the place that has long been viewed as his by right could be harder to keep a grip on.

England squad in full

Goalkeepers: Sam Johnstone (Crystal Palace), Jordan Pickford (Everton), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal)

Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Lewis Dunk (Brighton and Hove Albion), Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Harry Maguire (Manchester United), Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), John Stones (Manchester City), Kieran Trippier (Newcastle United), Kyle Walker (Manchester City)

Midfielders: Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Conor Gallagher (Chelsea), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Kalvin Phillips (Manchester City), Declan Rice (West Ham United)

Forwards: Phil Foden (Manchester City), Jack Grealish (Manchester City), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), James Maddison (Leicester City), Marcus Rashford (Manchester United), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Callum Wilson (Newcastle United)