Manchester City's back-to-back losses show a team with unexpected vulnerability in Premier League title chase

With Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri out Pep Guardiola struggled to paper over the cracks as they lost to Arsenal

It is perhaps worth beginning with the obvious after Manchester City paired one Premier League defeat with another for the first time in nearly five years by falling to Arsenal 1-0. The all-conquering treble winners remain prohibitive favorites to be crowned England's preeminent club again in eight months' time. No one in Europe would be shocked to repeat as continental champions too. Even City are not immune to blips, and no one is better at responding to them, especially when they are as well-timed as this slow start to autumn.

"We are in October, sometimes it's good being behind," said Pep Guardiola as he reflected on Sunday's 1-0 defeat at Arsenal. "Sometimes it's good going behind. It's not the first time that [other] contenders are up front, last season we were much [further] behind than here but the season is long."

When it mattered most last season City coalesced, a streak of 43 points from a possible 45 reeling Arsenal in and turning what might have been a great title race into an anticlimax. More than any big team, they know when to hit top speed. Like the best middle distance runners, you do not see these players flying out of the traps only to seize up on the finishing straight.

Then again, it is always possible that they might just misjudge the speed they need to begin the race at. Liverpool found themselves on a procession to the title in 2020 because City didn't get moving early on. That doesn't look like happening this time, not least because none of the potential challengers profile as the sort who can go on the prohibitive run of that Jurgen Klopp side.

City's attack is worse than it was

City may not have to be at their very best to make up ground this season, something of a cause for relief given that they have not looked like that team. Perhaps that is no wonder following a tumultuous summer that saw veterans including Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez depart while Kevin De Bruyne suffered another major injury. Largely, this seems like the same side playing the same way but just lacking a few superstars whose talents tend to be reflected in major output metrics. So, while an average of two goals per Premier League game is not to be sniffed at, it is 0.2 down on last season, 0.4 on 2021-22. Even after being held to four shots by Arsenal, the shots are coming at a similarly consistent rate to years gone by but their expected goals value is lower with City delivering 1.7 npxG (non-penalty expected goals) per game at the moment. That's down from 1.9 last season and 2.4 the season before.

Once more, that is eminently solid, but it should be noted that through eight games City's schedule has been largely favorable, facing only two of last season's top eight while facing off against two newly promoted teams and Nottingham Forest. These were the sorts of games where Erling Haaland and his merry band of wingers racked up shots by the dozen. After Sunday's defeat, the six efforts they had on Fulham's goal and seven on Forest's (albeit down a man after Rodri's early red card) take on a different appearance. The games will get tougher from here on out, in their next six league games the champions face Brighton, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham. There is some work to be done to test those defenses beyond their limit.

Even after a three game scoreless streak, his personal equivalent of a Saharan drought, Haaland's statistical profile remains just fine with seven non-penalty goals from 6.36 npxG. Behind him the impressive Julian Alvarez is delivering De Bruyne quality shot returns even if he, understandably, can't deliver the game changing passes against the likes of Arsenal that have been the Belgian's stock trade.

As last season wore on City gravitated towards something almost akin to a 4-4-2 where Haaland and De Bruyne but they were at least the leading lights in a cast of equals. In 2022-23 the following players averaged over 0.18 npxG per 90 minutes of Premier League play: Haaland, Alvarez, Cole Palmer (in just 358 minutes), Phil Foden, Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez, De Bruyne and Jack Grealish. This season that group numbers just Haaland and Alvarez. Third in terms of npxG -- both per 90 and in total -- and total shots is Rodri. 

Arsenal were certainly in exceptional defensive form as they held City to just four shots total and two over an 85 minute stretch, but for once it never felt like the Gunners were having to play whack a mole at the back just to stave off the pressure on them. William Saliba won his duels with Haaland, Declan Rice plugged up the interplay in the box and Gabriel Magalhaes booted clear anything of great danger. This was defending of the highest level, but the best versions of City could eventually trump even that.

This time, however, there were fewer of those third man runs from midfield for substitute Jeremy Doku to pick out, no penalty area pressure from Jack Grealish, left out of the XI as, with Rodri suspended, Guardiola "wanted to put more protection on the ball with Bernardo [Silva], [Mateo] Kovacic and Rico [Lewis], have players in the middle."

Injuries take their toll on City

Bring Rodri back into this team and the attack would surely flow for even more pronounced reasons than the fact that the anchor gets plenty of headers and shots outside the box. With the world's best defensive midfielder behind them, forwards can be more fearless in their positioning and pressing, safe in the knowledge that cover is there. No one brings greater territorial control in this City team, blocking opposition attempts to break out and offering an option to recycle possession. Similarly, if anyone was going to charm their way around Saliba and Gabriel it was De Bruyne.

This might then be nothing more than an old-fashioned crisis of numbers, the very good version of City capable of upgrading itself to win all games killbot when all its superstars are available. If any team ought to be able to cope, however, it is one backed by Abu Dhabi and at the top of the Deloitte Money League. With no natural cover for Rodri that Guardiola trusts and no one yet stepping into Gundogan's shooting boots, this does seem to be a team more vulnerable to injuries than it needs to be. Last season, for instance, City could pick and choose when De Bruyne played in the run in. Now they look perhaps a body or two short in terms of final third output to do that. Guardiola has always favored a compact squad. That works when injuries are infrequent, but the usable numbers contracted somewhat this summer and the injuries are a little worse than usual. Suddenly they look one or two light.

At peak power there might be no team on earth that can knock City off their axis. The last week, however, has shown that it only takes a few bumps and bruises to leave this team looking altogether more mortal.