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Italy were one of the best, if not the best, national team of 2021. Roberto Mancini's Italy were the winners UEFA Euro 2020 last summer, taking an incredible difficult path where Azzurri managed to beat Belgium, Spain and  finally England after an emotional final went to penalties at Wembley Stadium in London. It was a dream month for Italy, where an entire country supported the team and celebrated in the same streets that had been mostly empty for over a year thanks to COVID-19. But, despite that amazing summer, one which is still in the minds of every single Italian, the same squad and coach struggled in the aftermath of the tournament and are now forced to play a playoff in order to secure their spot in World Cup 2022 in Qatar. 

If Mancini's side don't win the next two matches then Italy will miss soccer's premier event, which kicks off November 21 this year. The first match is set to be played in Palermo on Thursday against North Macedonia, which really shouldn't worry Italy too much. But the catch is what happens next. If Italy win they face the winner of the other match, where Portugal and Turkey  face off. That means a road trip to Lisbon or Istanbul with a trip to Qatar on the line. 

So what exactly happened to Italy to land them in such a tough spot after being so high last summer? 

Did Italy overachieve at the Euros? 

It's possible that Italy just overachieved last summer to take home the prize at Euro 2020. Sure, Mancini's team played some very good games, especially in the group stage against Turkey, Switzerland and Wales, but that wasn't exactly top quality competition.. And their performance against Austria in the round of 16 really was disappointing, even as they managed to slip into the quarterfinals, it's just that that match was easy to forget after a statement win against Belgium in the next round in Monaco. 

Then, both semifinal and final ended in penalties with Italy winning both times against Spain and England. Azzurri were defensively solid and played well enough upfront thanks to the hard work of midfielders like Manuel Locatelli contributing to the goal scoring. But the margins were extremely fine. Had Italy lost their semifinal shootout, it wouldn't have seemed quite so surprising if they struggled thereafter. 

This was an organized team, but not a dominant one and that made it all the more challenging after that summer when Italy lost a bit of confidence. In September the fine margins of penalties went they other way, the team drew against Bulgaria and Switzerland where Chelsea midfielder Jorginho missed a crucial penalty that could have given Italy an early qualification to the World Cup directly from the UEFA qualifying group stage. The side, in fact, only won twice after Euro 2020, one of which was against minnow Lithuania (5-0), and the other in the Nations League's third place game against Belgium after losing against Spain in the semifinal at San Siro. 

Then consider that Italy actually had another opportunity to qualify for the World Cup against Switzerland at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome but they drew 1-1 when Jorginho missed another penalty in their second to last qualifying match and then also drew 0-0 in the last match against Northern Ireland. So, it's a big disappointment for the current European champions but one way to understand what happened is that over the summer, Italy made their penalties, and afterwards the team did not. That, of course, will be cold comfort for the Azzurri should they fail to make their second World Cup in a row.

Italy's injuries take their bite

To be fair to Mancini, he's had to deal with several injuries in the last few months as well. Captain, and titanic defender, Giorgio Chiellini was basically not available for most of the matches. Leonardo Spinazzola, a key cog in the team's run at the Euros at wing-back, is still out after tearing his Achilles tendon against Belgium in the run to the Euro victory. Marco Verratti and Ciro Immobile were also out for the key matches against Switzerland and for the key clashes this month Mancini won't be able to count on Juventus star Federico Chiesa who injured his ACL last January or Napoli right-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo who will be out for the next month after picking up a muscular injury last Sunday.

The question, then, is about who will replace these players and are they good enough to take down a side like Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal? Mancini rotated many players through the squad during the last few matches, with defenders such as Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni who played more, as well as midfielders like Sandro Tonali and Stefano Sensi who can now find more space in the lineup. Without Chiesa it's likely that Nicolò Zaniolo will have more game time as well and young strikers like Gianluca Scamacca and Giacomo Raspadori can be good options as well. So, Italy has alternatives to replace the important players their missing, but most of them don't have the experience of Italy's first choice group. In a real sense the team that will have to carry Italy to Qatar will be different than the won that achieved iconic success at Wembley. While that talent should be enough to carry Italy past North Macedonia, it's a real question whether they will be equipped for the harder task in the next round. If they aren't, then it means Italy will go at least 12 years between World Cup appearances.