World Cup final bold predictions: How Lionel Messi and Argentina can expose France's weak spot
It might have been a 4-3 thriller in 2018, but it is hard to see this World Cup final being a repeat
By
James Benge
•
6 min read
Two double world champions face off on Sunday with each of Argentina and France vying to add a third star to their jersey and hoist the greatest prize in the sport. Can the 2018 champions repeat the trick and carve out a space in the pantheon of back-to-back champions along the Italy side of 1938 and Brazil's legendary 1962 squad? Or will Lionel Messi add that one missing piece to his trophy cabinet, further cementing his standing alongside the very greatest ever to play football? Here's what to look out for on Sunday:
Argentina expose France's weak link
For so much of this tournament, France's left flank has (rightly) been framed as their great strength, the avenue to goal where special adjustments are a necessity for the opposition. It is not just Kylian Mbappe but the devastating support he has behind him from Theo Hernandez, one of the sport's outstanding attacking full backs. As the tournament has worn on and the standard of opposition has risen, Didier Deschamps' great blessing has become something of a headache too. The great World Cup monkey paw has handed him two of the best attackers in the tournament but has given opposition a lane to goals of their own.
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With his goals at the other end, Kylian Mbappe has earned a pass when it comes to events off the ball. He has taken that up. Hernandez, meanwhile, is far more convincing going forward than in reverse and, with Youssouf Fofana offering far less support in the semifinal than the excellent Adrien Rabiot had beforehand, found himself roasted by the combination of Hakim Ziyech and Achraf Hakimi.
The interplay on the Moroccan right is quite wonderful -- all first-touch flicks -- but it is made easier by the leaden-footed defending of Fofana and Hernandez. Mbappe, meanwhile, is in this camera shot. He sees it all but the gods cannot interfere in the affairs of mere mortals. France's left back had taken his time to turn and is ultimately only able to put a little bit of pressure on Hakimi when he delivers the cross. Not for the first time this tournament, a covering French center back bails his left flank out.
These troubles were a mere continuation of the quarterfinal, where Bukayo Saka was merciless in his examination of Hernandez before Mason Mount baited him into the daftest of penalties. As this tournament has worn on, opponents are going at the French left with greater regularity. In the group stage, 43 percent of the attacks Les Bleus faced came down that flank. When they have been leading in the quarterfinal and semifinal (AKA: the time France decide to just defend and counter until the world ends) that number has risen to 51 percent.
Now comes the greatest test. It isn't just Messi, who drifts from a nominal center forward position out to the right half space, but the player that Lionel Scaloni's system provides him with on the outside. With Angel Di Maria battling for fitness, that is not always a natural winger but the Juventus man could be back in time.
There are steps France could take to counter this pressure. Rabiot's return, which is expected but not a given, would be a welcome one if he continues in the vein of form he has reached during the World Cup. One could also drop Hernandez for a more natural defender, but if he were to do so Deschamps would be robbing Mbappe of an overlapping attacking threat that has made him even more effective. That is rather the challenge for France. Their left flank might be their match winner -- as it was when Hernandez snuck in unnoticed against Morocco -- but it could be their opponents' route to glory.
France find aerial route to test Argentine defense
Argentina's defense has stood resolute for so much of this tournament. Through six games, they have given up 6.28 expected goals (xG). Per game, that is a record bettered only by England and a trio of sides who did not make it past the group stages. They are an extremely stout defense and it is important not to get carried away by a quarter-hour of chaos against the Dutch. But that did happen and it offers some indication for how France might discomfort the Argentine rearguard.
After all, France have exploited set pieces like few others. They average 0.46 xG per game from dead balls, a tally bettered only by Cameroon and Mexico, and have perhaps the World Cup's most deadly deliverer in the form of Antoine Griezmann. He has a greater expected assists (xA) output from set pieces alone, 1.78 to be precise, than anyone other than Messi has in totality this tournament. Doubtless, it helps that he is aiming for the likes of Olivier Giroud (who has had the most headed shots at the tournament), Rabiot and Raphael Varane, but his corners and free kicks have been delivered with pace and precision. Of teams to make the last eight, only the Dutch won more aerial duels per match than France.
If one were picking flaws in the Argentine defense, it might be their vulnerability to crosses, as evidenced not just in the Netherlands' comeback but also a few tempting deliveries from Croatian corners that could have headed in a different direction. Don't expect the French to go immediately to the full-out aerial bombardment approach that the Dutch applied as they chased the quarterfinal in the last 10 minutes, but as an addition to their devastating counter attacks, a more direct style of play could prove effective.
Don't expect a final for the ages
It might have been a 4-3 thriller when these two sides met four and a bit years ago in the 2018 quarterfinals, but it is hard to see this game being a repeat of the classic. Both Deschamps and Scaloni have largely found success in caution since the events in Russia, with Argentina in particular building Messi's last dance on gritty defense at one end and trust in his brilliance at the other. Per match, La Albiceleste are giving up a mere three and a third shots inside the box. They are not as expansive as the team that ground their way through the 2021 Copa America, the supply line of quick ball from Rodrigo De Paul has rather dried up. Instead, Scaloni has trusted that Messi is a man seized by a sense of destiny. It has hardly made for sexy football -- only against Poland have they really shot the lights out -- but it has been effective.
One might use the same adjective about France, on whom it is so tough to get a read thanks to their two early goals in the last two games. Les Bleus seem utterly insistent on doing exactly what is required to win a football match and no more, sitting back whenever they take the lead, assured in the knowledge that they are at their most devastating when the opposition are drawn onto them and they can coil up, awaiting the moment for Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele to strike.
Neither of these teams are going to win style points, but then again tournament football tends to have very little truck for those who are easy on the eye but careless without the ball -- as Germany can attest. These two teams take away from their opponents before they stack their own deck. And so, even with the best player of this generation and the next on the field, this may be as tight and tense a final as 2010 and 2014, absorbing but not the standout moment of a thrilling tournament.
Score prediction
You could throw a blanket over these two teams, who have a fair few of the same quirks and qualities, most notably an aversion to possession and a defense that makes that a solid tactic. Neither, however, have faced opponents with quite as many game changing attackers. This feels like a bit of a toss up and in such cases it is rarely a bad idea to back the team that has Lionel Messi. History beckons. PICK: Argentina 2, France 1.
