Friday Five: Teams likely to fall back down to Earth in the second half
This week's Friday Five looks at five teams off to hot starts that probably won't be able to maintain them
By
Tom Fornelli
•
5 min read
Every Friday, the Friday Five ranks something in the world of college football -- anything and everything from the logical to the illogical. This week we rank five teams that are off to strong starts, but will likely have a hard time maintaining their current pace.
In last week's Friday Five, I ranked five teams that were off to slow starts to the season, and I believed were unlikely to turn things around. After doing that, it only made sense to come back this week and look at five teams who are off to strong starts in the 2016 season, but will likely find the road a bit more difficult over the second half of the season.
The parameters in which I am working are that a team must have one or less loss this season to even be considered, leaving me with quite a significant share of options, because non-conference schedules in September are always so useful when it comes to inflating a team's record.
Now, by putting a team on this list, I'm not sitting here saying it's a bad team, or that it's a fraud and soon the world will be exposed to its charade. I'm just saying that I don't believe it's going to be able to maintain its current pace. Be it because of a specific flaw, or just the fact it has a difficult schedule down the stretch.
Think of it more as a "they may be 5-1 now, but they'll probably finish 8-4 or 7-5" kind of assessment.
Anyway, let's get to raining on some parades.
5. Wake Forest: It's funny, when I first came up with the idea to do this topic for this week's Friday Five, Wake Forest was one of the inspirations. I figured for sure that it would be one of the top two schools on this list, but after looking around and investigating a bit further, it's still here, but it's probably not in as much trouble as some other schools. The Demon Deacons are 5-1 right now, but I don't see them finishing worse than 8-4. They've games remaining against Florida State, Clemson and Louisville, which barring a major upset, will all be losses. Their other three games, however, are all at home and against Virginia, Army and Boston College. The Deacons can win all three of those games.
4. Arizona State: This is just a strange case right here, as Arizona State continues to do nothing but confuse me. Last season I picked the Sun Devils as my surprise team to win the Pac-12 and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Things didn't quite work out so well there! This year I figured would be more of the same, yet here we are and they're 5-1, but they've done nothing that you would considered impressive yet. Outside of the season opener against Northern Arizona, the Sun Devils' largest margin of victory is 13 points in a 68-55 shootout against Texas Tech. Other than that, there's been close wins against Cal, UTSA and UCLA. The most telling result there was Arizona State struggling with UTSA, because that's one of two road games it has played this year. The other was a 41-20 loss to USC. Four of Arizona State's final six games are on the road, starting this weekend against Colorado, and Oregon, Washington and Arizona still remaining. Home dates with Washington State and Utah won't be easy, either. With a defense this bad, Arizona State could easily finish at 7-5.
3. West Virginia: The Mountaineers are one of only two unbeaten teams remaining in the Big 12, but I don't know how much longer they'll be able to say that. This is a team that is yet to play a true road game, and has had a couple of close calls with BYU and Kansas State in recent weeks. When we think of the Big 12 and we think of Dana Holgorsen teams, we think of teams that put up a lot of points every week. Well, even at 4-0, this West Virginia team really doesn't score a lot. In three games against FBS competition, it's averaging 26 points per game. The only Big 12 team scoring fewer points than that is Kansas. So when I look at the remaining schedule and I see Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU and Baylor just to name a few, I don't have much confidence in the Mountaineers to score as many points as they'll need to beat these teams. We're looking at an undefeated team with five or six possible losses remaining on the schedule.
2. Maryland: The biggest problem for Maryland is what's left on its schedule. This is a team that got off to a 4-0 start to the season, but did so while playing teams like Howard, FIU, UCF and Purdue. Last week, it went on the road to face Penn State and ended up losing 38-14, which I believe is a bit more accurate a portrayal of how good this team really is. Not so much the losing by 24 points part, but more along the lines of being a team that's not at the top of its division. It's also a team that still has to play Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska, and an Indiana team on the road that just beat the Spartans in Bloomington two weeks ago. Life is just going to be a lot more difficult for the Terps from here on out.
1. NC State: If there's one team off to a great start to its season that I feel could end up missing a bowl game entirely, it's this NC State team. The Wolfpack is off to a 4-1 start, but that loss was a 33-30 loss against an East Carolina team that has since lost its last four. The wins came against William & Mary, Old Dominion, Wake Forest and Notre Dame in a hurricane. A Notre Dame team that's now 2-4. When we look at the rest of NC State's schedule, we see a lot of hurt coming. Its next two games are on the road against Clemson and Louisville. After that it returns home for Boston College, but Florida State looms the week after that. Then it's a road trip to Syracuse, and it finishes up with Miami and North Carolina. I see five losses coming, and if the Pack slips up against either BC or Syracuse, it's staying home in December.
