Penn State vs. USC prediction, Rose Bowl pick, odds, line: Trojans looking good
There is no greater college football spectacle than the Rose Bowl, so let's pick it against the spread
By
Tom Fornelli
•
4 min read
If you can't get into the College Football Playoff, a trip to Pasadena, California, to play in the Rose Bowl is one hell of a consolation prize.
That's the situation Penn State is in. Last we saw the Nittany Lions, they were beating Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. Unfortunately for them, winning what many deemed to be the best conference in the country wasn't enough to earn a playoff berth, even if they had a win over the other Big Ten team chosen for the spot.
So instead of playing Alabama in Atlanta, the Nittany Lions get USC in Pasadena, and that's a pretty fair trade in my opinion. It's the first time Penn State has been to the Rose Bowl since 2008 when it lost to USC team by a score of 38-24.
As for the Trojans, the Rose Bowl is familiar territory. No school has played in this game more often than USC, as this will be the 34th appearance for the Trojans. That's 14 more appearances than Michigan's 20, which finds itself in second place on the all-time Rose Bowl appearance list. Naturally, the Trojans have won more Rose Bowls than any other school. Their 24 wins are three times as many as the next closest school, which is also Michigan.
This year's USC team took an odd road to Pasadena, however, as the Trojans lost three of their first four games. They then put together an eight-game win streak, and although they did not win the Pac 12's South Division, they still managed to finish ahead of Colorado in the final CFP Rankings to earn the bid.
Players to watch
Saquon Barkley, Penn State RB: If you haven't watched Penn State football in a while, you may be confused by what you see in this game. The offense has entered modern times, and now moves at a quicker tempo and tries to space defenses out a bit more. Still, even with a new look, this is still an offense that's led by its running back.
A sophomore, Barkley had a spectacular freshman season in 2015 but didn't get much attention for it due to Penn State's struggles. Still, when you consider the offensive line he had to run behind last year, the numbers Barkley managed to put up were damn near miraculous. This year, he's been behind a stronger line and life's been a bit easier, and Barkley has taken advantage of the holes suddenly appearing in front of him.
He's rushed for 1,302 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Nittany Lions, but he was a threat in the passing game as well. Barkley caught 23 passes for for 347 yards and another three touchdowns as a receiver. If Penn State is going to pick up a win over the Trojans, it will need Barkley to be at his best.
Adoree Jackson, USC CB: I have Jackson listed as a cornerback, and he is, but the truth is he's a lot more than that. If there were a Really Fun To Watch position, that's how I'd list him. And he's not just fun, he's also really good at a lot of different things.
When he's covering a receiver, you don't really want to test him. He has the skill and ability to be a shutdown corner, and when he messes up, he's such a gifted athlete that his speed can make up for the error. That's why he's picked off four passes this season and broken up another 11. He's also not afraid to throw himself into a pile and make a play, as he has 51 tackles on the season, 42 solo.
Where things get more exciting is when USC uses Jackson on special teams and occasionally offense as well. He wasn't used in many offensive sets this season, but considering this is a bowl game, don't be surprised if you see Jackson line up at wide receiver or even running back.
And cross your fingers and hope Penn State is daring enough to kick to him. Jackson is one of the most dangerous returners in the country this season, returning two kicks and two punts for touchdowns.
Prediction
One of the things that always makes picking a bowl game so difficult is you don't always know how motivated each team will be to play in that particular game. Thankfully, when it comes to the Rose Bowl, motivation isn't something you need to worry about. Both of these teams want to be here, and both of them want to win.
So which one will?
I have to lean USC's direction in this game. As impressed as I have been by Penn State this season, I just believe that USC has the talent edge against the Nittany Lions at a lot of the key positions. I also believe that while Penn State's offensive line has improved, it could struggle against USC's front seven. So when I look at everything as a whole, I can't help but believe that USC wins this game more often than not, and I'm even willing to lay the points with the Trojans as well. Pick: USC -7.5
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