The SEC title is on the line Sunday when Kentucky meets Tennessee at 1 p.m. ET. This game opened as a pick'em, but the Vols are now favored by one point. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 137, unchanged from the opening line.

Before making any kind of pick on this title game, you need to see what SportsLine college hoops expert Josh Nagel has to say.

Nagel, a veteran college sports specialist who has won multiple handicapping contests, has nailed 11 of his last 17 picks involving Kentucky hoops and enters Selection Sunday on a blistering 15-5 run on all of his college basketball ATS picks. Anybody who has been following him is up huge.

Now he's studied Tennessee vs. Kentucky from every possible angle and his pick is in.

Nagel has taken into account Tennessee's scorching run late in the season. The Vols (25-7) have won six in a row and blasted Arkansas 84-66 in the SEC semifinals on Saturday.

They've done it with a balanced attack, but forwards Grant Williams (15.4 ppg) and Admiral Schofield (13.5) have been the biggest catalysts. Schofield, especially, has been on fire, averaging over 20 points in Tennessee's past five contests.

The Vols also swept the season series against Kentucky, winning 76-65 in Knoxville and 61-59 in Lexington.

But just because recent history points to Tennessee doesn't mean the Vols will be able to complete the season sweep.

The Wildcats (23-10) have also been strong down the stretch, winning six of their past seven. They easily knocked out Alabama on Saturday in an 86-63 final. It was an up-and-down campaign overall for Kentucky this season, but the young, talented Wildcats are hitting their stride in March.

And Kentucky has won the SEC tournament 17 times since the Vols last claimed the crown in 1979. It will take a historic effort from Tennessee on Sunday to turn that trend around.

Nagel has evaluated all of these circumstances and has jumped all over one side. He knows a big X-factor will determine what side prevails.

So what side of Kentucky-Tennessee do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick for Kentucky-Tennessee, and find out what the x-factor for this matchup will be, from a veteran handicapper on an insane 15-5 run.