A trip to the Sweet 16 is on the line Sunday when 3-seed Michigan State meets 11-seed Syracuse in Detroit at 2:40 p.m. ET on CBS. Michigan State is favored by eight points, unchanged from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 129.5, also unchanged from the open.

In a game with so much on the line, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer has to say.

This model entered the Round of 32 of the 2018 NCAA Tournament on a strong 5-1 run on its top-rated college basketball picks. Now, it has simulated Michigan State vs. Syracuse 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

We can tell you it's calling for 127 total points to be scored, clearing the under with 2.5 to spare. But its stronger pick is against the spread, saying that you can bank on one of these sides almost 65 percent of the time. You can get that pick only over at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account Michigan State's shaky opening round performance against Bucknell. The Spartans (30-4) were favored by 14.5 points, but only knocked off the Bison by four.

That might've been, in part, the product of an extend layoff following the Big Ten Tournament, which occurred a week earlier than the other major conference tournaments.

The Spartans, led by a pair of potential NBA lottery picks in forwards Miles Bridges (17.3 ppg) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (11.2 ppg), hope to have the rust knocked off and will look to put together a more complete performance on Sunday.

But Syracuse (22-13) comes into this matchup highly confident, with two NCAA Tournament wins already under its belt.

The Orange knocked off Arizona State 60-56 in the First Four earlier in the week and then took down TCU 57-52 on Friday. Defense has been the key for the Orange, as they've shut down both opponents so far.

They'll try to follow that blueprint against the Spartans while hoping to get an offensive spark from guard Tyus Battle (19.3 ppg). A low-scoring matchup is possible between these two top-25 scoring defenses, so that could help Syracuse keep this one competitive.

So what side should you take? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan State-Syracuse spread hits almost 65 percent of the time, all from the computer model that enters the second round of the NCAA Tournament on a 5-1 run.