It's a battle between two of the Big Ten's hottest teams when the 16th-ranked Michigan State Spartans host the 19th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday afternoon. Both teams have won four in a row, including victories against ranked teams, and the Spartans can clinch a share of the Big Ten's regular-season title with a victory. It is the only matchup between the teams this season, and both will be looking to sustain momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament. 

Tip-off is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at the Breslin Center. The Spartans are seven-point favorites in the latest Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 140. Before considering your Michigan State vs. Ohio State picks or college basketball predictions, make sure you see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 18 of the 2019-20 season on a 72-48 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Ohio State vs. Michigan State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Michigan State vs. Ohio State:

  • Ohio State vs. Michigan State spread: Spartans -7
  • Ohio State vs. Michigan State over-under: 140
  • Ohio State vs. Michigan State money line: Spartans -332, Buckeyes +256
  • MSU: G Rocket Watts is averaging 14.3 points over the past six games.
  • OSU: G CJ Walker is averaging 13.6 points and five assists the past five games.

Why Michigan State can cover

Michigan State is 6-4 against the spread in its past 10 games, and forward Xavier Tillman is the anchor on both ends of the floor for the Spartans. The 6-foot-8 junior averages a double-double at 13.7 points and 10.4 rebounds and also blocks more than two shots a game. He gets plenty of assistance from senior guard Cassius Winston, who scores a team-high 18.3 and dishes out 5.9 assists. Both players average more than a steal per contest, and Michigan State ranks third in the nation in field-goal percentage defense at 37.6.

Tillman and Winston have been getting more help from their teammates in recent weeks for the Spartans, who are 9-5 against the spread at home. Freshman Rocket Watts and sophomore Aaron Henry have stepped up with strong perimeter defense, and they are combining for 18.6 points and 4.6 assists. 

Why Ohio State can cover

Even so, the Spartans aren't a lock to cover the Michigan State vs. Ohio State spread. That's because Ohio State is 6-0 against the spread with the rest disadvantage, and the Buckeyes can play strong defense, as well. They rank 18th in the nation in allowing just 62.4 points per game, and opponents are shooting 39.4 percent against them. Junior Kaleb Wesson is the centerpiece, leading OSU in scoring (14.2 per game) and rebounding (9.4) and blocking a shot per game. Senior foward Andre Wesson chips in 9.2 points and four rebounds, and the two combine for almost four assists.

The Buckeyes are 14-6 against the spread after a win, and sophomore guard Duane Washington Jr. shoots better than 39 percent from three-point range. In addition, the Buckeyes are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games. 

How to make Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with simulations calling for both defenses to hold the opposing stars below their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations.

So who wins Michigan State vs. Ohio State? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ohio State vs. Michigan State spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model on a 72-48 run on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.