Computer model reveals college football picks, best bets for New Year's Eve

SportsLine's model reveals its college football picks and best bets for Wednesday, Dec. 31

By Ryan Wooden

Dec 31, 2025 at 9:45 am ET • 3 min read

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College football's postseason continues on Wednesday with five New Year's Eve bowl games, including a College Football Playoff quarterfinal between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 10 Miami in the 2025 Cotton Bowl. That matchup kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET, and will be preceded by regular bowl matchups like Iowa vs. Vanderbilt in the ReliaQuest Bowl at noon ET and Utah vs. Nebraska in the Las Vegas Bowl at 3:30 p.m. ET. According to the latest college football odds, Ohio State is favored by 9.5 over Miami while the over/under is 41.5 points, and the Over is one of the SportsLine Projection Model's top plays on Wednesday.

The model is also backing Nebraska (+14) to cover the spread against Utah and Iowa to win outright (+154) against Vanderbilt. Before locking in your college football picks for Wednesday, Dec. 31, be sure to check out the top college football betting picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following those college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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College football best bets for Wednesday, Dec. 31 (odds subject to change):

Iowa money line vs. Vanderbilt (+157)
Nebraska +14 vs. Utah (-108)
Over 41.5 points in Ohio State vs. Miami (-117)

Combining the model's three picks into a college football parlay would result in a payout of +818 (risk $100 to win $818). Bet it now at Caesars Sportsbook:

Iowa money line vs. Vanderbilt

Kirk Ferentz expects his team to be fully intact for the 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Wednesday, but the Commodores will be down Mackey Award winning tight end Eli Stowers after he opted out to begin preparing for the 2026 NFL Draft. With Diego Pavia's top receiver out of action, expect the Iowa defense to load up to stop the Heisman Trophy runner-up and for Iowa to be the more motivated program with Vanderbilt feeling snubbed by the CFP selection committee. The model predicts that Iowa wins outright in 51% of simulations, while these odds imply a 39.2% chance to win.

Nebraska +14 vs. Utah

Dylan Raiola had Nebraska looking like it was on the verge of a turnaround before suffering losses to Minnesota and USC, where he also suffered a season-ending injury. Now he's entering the transfer portal, and Matt Rhule is turning to true freshman quarterback TJ Lateef, who took over as the starter when Raiola was injured. Lateef suffered a hamstring injury against Iowa to end the regular season, but has been given a clean bill of health. Meanwhile, Utah just lost Kyle Whittingham to Michigan and is down its two starting offensive tackles, two best defensive ends, and its leading receiver because of either opt-out or injury. The model predicts that the Cornhuskers cover in 63% of simulations.

Over 41.5 points in Ohio State vs. Miami

Miami just won a 10-3 slugfest against Texas A&M in the first round, while Ohio State suffered a 13-10 loss to Indiana in its most recent outing at the Big Ten Championship Game. Those recent results and the fact that both defenses rank in the top five nationally in points allowed are obviously driving this total down. However, the Buckeyes' offense came alive during last year's national title run. Ohio State scored 145 points combined in wins over Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame, and the Buckeyes have the skill-position talent to force the Hurricanes to try to keep up. The Over hits in 57% of the model's simulations.