With Week 1 of the 2018 college football season starting on Thursday, there's a palpable excitement thanks to the legalization of sports betting in multiple states throughout the nation. Our team of expert handicappers from SportsLine will be with you all year long providing picks to individual games, but with the season about to begin, we have reached out to one expert better suited than anyone else to look at must-bet win totals for 2018.

Coming up with the win totals themselves is an easy but time-consuming process for handicapper Kenny White, who is in his second year with SportsLine and stands as a 20-year veteran of the industry with experience both setting and picking win totals.

First, White starts from scratch. What's the two-deep look like? Who's coming back? Then, White gives each player ratings based on stats, tape and other background research. A team is then assigned an average rating. That can take up to three hours. He also weighs factors like who the head coach is strolling the sideline. He'll tend to underrate teams with new coaching staffs and overrate teams with established coaching staffs. 

White's best bets this season reflect that. "There's a natural Year 4 jump for Harbaugh," White said. Meanwhile, SMU and Arizona State are breaking in new coaches. It all affects how a team is rated.  

"Some years, those ratings are on," White said. "In other years, they're on but funny things tend to happen in games: a ball bounces a certain way, a team doesn't get breaks with turnovers, that type of stuff. And some years, my ratings are way off." 

When he is off, White says the key is adjusting ratings and win totals quickly, especially towards the beginning of the season when information is still being gathered.

"For instance, I had to adjust Wyoming and New Mexico State," White said. The line opened at -5.5 for Wyoming, but the Cowboys won 29-7 in a game that didn't even feel that close." White was then forced to adjust to improve Wyoming's defensive rating while lowering New Mexico State's offensive rating. 

It's an area that requires constant monitoring, but now that sports betting is an even bigger part of college football, it's all the more fascinating to watch unfold. 

Let's take a look at White's five best win total picks ahead of the season.

  • Michigan over 9: "I'm drinking the Harbaugh cool aid. Shea Patterson was a great addition to a team that has a top-five defense."
  • Texas over 8.5: "How could I not be on the Big 12 winner and a team that I feel could be in the national championship picture? I have the Longhorns 3.5 points better than the Sooners." 
  • SMU under 6: "The Mustangs welcome in Sonny Dykes to Dallas; however, it might take a year or two for the players to adjust to the new language on both sides of the ball.  The schedule is devastating as well with battles against TCU, at Michigan, at UCF and Navy all in the first six weeks."
  • Appalachian State under 8.5: "The Mountaineers are breaking in a new quarterback and lose five of their top nine tacklers. I have ASU rated the fourth-best team from the Sun Belt, and Coastal Carolina has a shot at the upset."
  • Arizona State under 5: "Herm Edwards returns to the sidelines, which we have no idea how it will work out. The language has changed 10 times since Edwards was last coaching. The style of play is drastically different, and the schedule just doesn't warrant five wins for a team with no defense."

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