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New Year's Day has traditionally been one of the biggest days in college football, and it's no different during the College Football Playoff era, with a trio of quarterfinal games on Thursday's slate. The January 1 CFP schedule begins with No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl at noon ET, followed by No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl at 4 p.m. ET, and finally No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl at 8 p.m. ET.

The SportsLine projection model and SportsLine's team of experts have you covered on the incredible CFP slate. The model is backing a pair of underdogs later in the day, projecting Alabama to cover as 7-point underdogs and Ole Miss to cover as 6.5-point underdogs in its College Football Playoff best bets. SportsLine expert Chip Patterson is backing Oregon to cover as 2.5-point favorites for Thursday's college football best bets. Before locking in your college football picks, be sure to check out the top college football betting picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model and team of college football experts. 

New users can also target the all-new DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if their first $5 wager wins:

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. 

College Football Playoff quarterfinal best bets for New Year's Day (odds subject to change): 

  • Oregon (-2.5) vs. Texas Tech
  • Alabama (+7) vs. Indiana
  • Ole Miss (+6.5) vs. Georgia

Combining the model's three picks into a Thursday College Football Playoff parlay would result in a payout of +567 (risk $100 to win $567). Bet it now at BetMGM: 

Oregon (-2.5) vs. Texas Tech

"This game sets up to be a chess match throughout the afternoon, with both Oregon and Texas Tech looking to set up and eventually execute explosive plays against elite defenses," SportsLine expert Chip Patterson said. "It's a chess match that will be fascinating to watch play out and likely set up a close game deep into the second half. It's just at some point, we're going to need a quarterback to make a game-saving or game-winning play, and right now, I'd rather side with Dante Moore in that discussion. He's made some huge throws late in games this season, and I like his odds more to be able to do so again." Back Oregon at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins:

Alabama (+7) vs. Indiana 

Indiana defeating Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game left no doubt that the Hoosiers are capable of winning a national championship. However, defeating Alabama by more than a touchdown is a tough task for any program. Alabama had a shocking opening-week loss to Florida State, but has since won 11 of 13 games, and its only loss by more than a touchdown came in a 28-7 final against Georgia in the SEC championship game. Indiana is 13-0 in a historic season, and the deserved favorite led by Heisman Trophy winner and possible No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. However, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is sixth in the nation with 3,500 passing yards, and the model views seven points just too many to give a program like Alabama. The model projects the Crimson Tide to cover in 63% of simulations. Back Alabama at Caesars, where new users get their first bet matched up to $250 in bonus bets:

Ole Miss (+6.5) vs. Georgia

Georgia needed a furious fourth-quarter comeback to defeat Ole Miss despite being the home team in their regular-season matchup this year. Ole Miss led, 35-26, in Athens entering the fourth quarter before Georgia scored the game's final 17 points to win, 43-35. Although that means Georgia over this number, that was at home, and on Thursday, they'll meet at a neutral site. Ole Miss will be without head coach Lane Kiffin, who is now with LSU, but many of the assistants from their regular-season meeting will be on the sideline. Ole Miss went 12-1 this season and had no issue in a 41-10 win over Tulane in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The model projects Ole Miss to cover in 57% of simulations. Bet Ole Miss at FanDuel, where new users get $250 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:

Want more college football picks?

You've seen the model's College Football Playoff best bets for Thursday's quarterfinals. Now, get against the spread, total and money line picks for every college football bowl game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.