The Kansas State Wildcats are 20-2 in home non-conference games in Bill Snyder's second stint as head coach, but that will be tested on Saturday when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs at noon ET in a key SEC/Big 12 showdown. The Bulldogs are seven-point favorites installed by Vegas, up a point from the opening line in the latest Kansas State vs. Mississippi State odds. The Over-Under, or total points oddsmakers expect to be scored, is 52.5. Before you make any Kansas State vs. Mississippi State picks, you need to hear to what SportsLine expert Emory Hunt has to say.

His expertise has earned him the nicknamed "The Czar of the Playbook," and Hunt already has spent endless hours breaking down the rosters of every FBS club. More important, he has been locked in on the tendencies of these Wildcats, with a perfect 5-0 record in their games over the past two seasons. Anyone who has followed him is up big. Now, he has zeroed in on Saturday's game and locked in a strong pick against the spread that's only available at SportsLine.

Hunt knows Vegas might be overreacting to Kansas State nearly losing to an FCS opponent last week before an Isaiah Zuber punt return for a score and a touchdown pass from Skylar Thompson to Zuber secured a fourth-quarter rally.

The Wildcats return eight offensive starters from last year's 8-5 team, led by Alex Barnes, who gained 819 yards (5.6 per carry) and scored seven touchdowns last season despite battling injuries. All five offensive linemen are also back. Alex Delton, the dual-threat quarterback who last year passed for 637 yards and ran for 500 more, will also play Saturday as K-State goes with a committee approach. 

The Bulldogs got Joe Moorhead his first head coaching victory last week, building a 35-3 lead by halftime against Stephen F. Austin on their way to a 63-6 win. And that was without starting QB Nick Fitzgerald, who served a one-game suspension for violating a team policy. Instead, Keytaon Thompson went off for 364 yards and five TDs, and the offense gained 618 yards.

Fitzgerald is back for the K-State game. Last year he threw for 1,782 yards, ran for 894 more and totaled 29 TDs. His backfield mate of RB Aeris Williams (1,107 yards, six TDs) is also back, forming one of the nation's more-dynamic duos.

The defense of MSU took a huge step forward last year, allowing just 20.9 ppg, nearly 11 fewer than the year before. The expectations haven't dipped with eight returning starters, including Mark McLaurin, who led the team in tackles (79) and the SEC in INTs (6), 

We can tell you Hunt is leaning Over on total points, but he also knows there's a critical factor that determines which side of the spread is a must-back, and he's only sharing it at SportsLine.

Who covers Mississippi State-Kansas State? And what critical factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you should jump on Saturday, all from a seasoned expert who's 5-0 on Kansas State games.