We would love to give you multiple championship plot lines for the season. You know, the endless possibilities for upsets, dark horses, chaos!

We would love to. We can't. The 2017 season is shaping up to be chalk. Same names, same powers, same bat time, same bat channel. Take a top 10, any top 10. Throw a blanket over it. Mostly likely, this season's four College Football Playoff teams are underneath it.

To that point: It's possible Alabama-Florida State this week is for CFP seeding. You've probably read -- mostly here -- the FSU-Bama loser can easily get back to the CFP Football Four.  Why not? The game is already being called the greatest season opener of all-time. You put that much talent on one field, how can there be an elimination in Week 1?

This is exactly what the commissioners didn't want when they cobbled together the CFP. Remember "Every Game Matters" and all that? Well, if the Tide and Noles rematch in the CFP … the regular season, in fact, doesn't matter as much. Don't forget: A big reason we're here is most folks didn't want to see Alabama and LSU play twice in 2011.

The only thing college football dislikes more than Cinderellas is rematches. (Just don't tell the Big 12, which is guaranteed to have one each season in its championship game.)

Back to the chalk: The same teams have dominated since the dawn of college football time. Only 30 teams have won national championships in the wire service era (since 1936). Only 16 teams have played for a national championship since the BCS started in 1998. Only 12 have won it.

That chalk enough for you?

The top five in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 (Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, Southern California and Clemson) have won nine of the past 14 national championships.

In the interest of inclusion, below we list 17 teams who have the best chance to win the national championship this season. Yes, that's a lot considering what I just wrote. It's also the fewest in the three years we've been doing this. Stow your chaos. Eleven of the 17 have already won a national championship.

American -- South Florida: Even if the Bulls run the table, their nonconference schedule stinks (San Jose State, Stony Brook, Illinois, Massachusetts). I'm telling you as a friend, the CFP Selection Committee isn't going to award South Florida a spot with its only Power Five win over Illinois.

Basically, every Power Five champ would have to end with two losses for USF to even be considered. However, a 14-0 season allows coach Charlie Strong to bounce after one season.

ACC -- Florida State, Clemson, Louisville: We already told you about the Noles. Clemson is probably overrated just a bit at No. 5, mainly because you're asking Kelly Bryant to do what Deshaun Watson just did -- lead the Tigers to a 14-1 championship season. Oh wait, Watson actually got the Tigers to the title game in consecutive seasons.

We'll know real quick about Clemson. It plays Auburn, at Louisville and at Virginia Tech before Oct. 1. Louisville is a legit playoff dark horse. Heisman winner Lamar Jackson is a singular talent. Nine guys come back on defense. Clemson has to come to Louisville in Week 3.

The Cardinals have a soft enough nonconference slate while playing in the country's strongest league. Louisville has to rid itself of the mystery of last season's late collapse. Only 13 teams enter the season with a longer losing streak than Louisville's three.

Big Ten -- Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan: The Buckeyes won 11 games in a season they were the youngest team in the country. What are they going to do this year at "full strength?" The defensive line is up there with Clemson as one of the best in the country. There might be three past, current or future All-Americans on the offensive line. The key is getting championship play out of quarterback J.T. Barrett. Cue new offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, who coached a couple of Heisman winners at Oklahoma.

Big Ten champ Penn State has the conference's best player (tailback Saquon Barkley) and renewed confidence. The Oct. 28 game at Ohio State might determine the Big Ten's best team.

Wisconsin has a (long) shot because it should win the West Division, and with a one-shot Big Ten title game to get to the CFP, who knows? The Badgers get Michigan, Iowa and Northwestern at home. We're being a bit charitable with Michigan. The Wolverines take a step back this season and might be out of the playoff race by Sunday morning if they lose to Florida.

Big 12 -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State: The Cowboys get a slight nod as the Big 12 champ because of the coaching change at OU. That being said, for either of these teams to get to the CFP, it's going to have to play some defense.

Oklahoma defensive coordinator Mike Stoops' unit has finished above No. 39 in total defense once since he returned in 2012. It was 82nd last year. Oklahoma State can outscore most everyone and probably has to beat Oklahoma twice to get to the CFP. That's what the Big 12 knew when it reinstituted its championship game. That's also a big ask.

Pac-12 -- USC, Utah, Washington, Stanford: The Trojans have to be favored because -- beyond the loads of talent -- they don't have to play Washington in the regular season. That game would occur only in the Pac-12 title game. The Trojans and Huskies are clearly the Pac-12's best. Before that, USC's two toughest games (Stanford, Utah) are at home. The Huskies are here to stay as a top-10 team as long as Chris Petersen is around.

For Utah to break through, the Utes probably have to win at USC and Washington. Stanford will win at least 10 because it has done exactly that in six of the past seven seasons. Based on early results, Bryce Love looks like a capable replacement for Christian McCaffrey.

SEC -- Alabama, Auburn, LSU: Might as well pencil in Alabama, but elsewhere the SEC has some work to do. It starts the season as the nation's No. 3 conference (behind the Big Ten and ACC). That doesn't mean things can't change quickly. The issue last year was finding a No. 2 team behind Alabama.

Auburn went to the Sugar Bowl only because the contract with the SEC made it so. This season, there is a bit more depth. Auburn is definitely the second-best team. The addition of Jarrett Stidham gives Gus Malzahn his best offense since 2013.

LSU still doesn't have a quarterback (Danny Etling), which is sort of important in a championship race. Another loss to Alabama would be the program's seventh straight in Ed Orgeron's first season. I just can't bring myself to pick anyone from the East Division. The division champ has to win the SEC first. It hasn't since Florida in 2008.