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The final installment of my busts column is going to look a little bit different this year. And I want to start by saying I'm really proud of you guys. Generally I have no trouble putting together a list of 12 players being drafted way too high in CBS drafts, even this late in August. This year there was no such luck.

Starting with the top-12 in ADP, there's a whole lot we agree on. Patrick Mahomes is the only player in the top 12 by ADP who is not in either my PPR or non-PPR top-12. But even he is No. 1 in my Superflex Top 200. And that similarity doesn't stop in Round 1. Josh Allen, George Kittle, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Antonio Gibson are the only players in the top 24 by ADP who are not in one of my top 24s. But I have Kittle 25th, Gibson 27th, and Edwards-Helaire 34th. 

Heath's 3.0 Breakouts | Sleepers

If we diverged at that point, I'd have no trouble leading off the busts with Allen and Edwards-Helaire, followed by a bunch of mid-round busts. But we do not diverge very much at all until the later rounds, and I don't think anyone wants to see a bunch of late-round busts. 

So, yeah, this busts column is going to be a little bit different. There are still plenty of busts, just with a lot more context than general. But first, we'll start with an annual tradition that needs no context.

Do not draft a defense in the first 10 rounds

The Rams currently have an ADP early in Round 8. The Buccaneers and Steelers are at the end of Round 9. This never ends well. And this has nothing to do with the Rams themselves. 

In 2017 the Jacksonville Jaguars outscored every other defense by more than a full point per game. The next year they finished outside the top 15 defenses. In 2018 the Bears were 1.5 Fantasy points per game better than any other defense. Again, they finished in the bottom half of the league the following year. The Patriots were the No.1 defense in 2019 and--well--I probably don't have to tell you.

The funny thing is that the Rams weren't even No.1 last year; the Colts were. The Rams' current ADP is 147 overall. Four picks after them are the Broncos, my No. 5 defense, who start the year with Daniel Jones and a pair of rookie quarterbacks. 

To be clear, I have the Rams ranked as my No. 1 defense. I expect them to be very good. But there will be good defenses available in the final rounds of every draft. The difference each year between the No. 1 and the No. 12 defense is generally around two to three Fantasy points per week. Certainly not nothing, but also not worth picking a defense while there are still impactful offensive players with upside available. 

Don't bet on the lunacy of 2020 QB scoring repeating itself.

I could have gone with another tried and true bust column take: "Don't take a QB in the first round!" It's still true, and I do think Patrick Mahomes is a bust in the first round. I also hate to call him that because he's my most drafted quarterback when he falls to Round 3. So drafting Mahomes in Round 1 is a mistake, but not as big of a mistake as betting on a repeat of last year's quarterback numbers.

How much of an outlier was 2020? Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill tied for QB11 at 25.65 Fantasy points per game. That would have been a top-four season every year going back to 2011. What happened in 2011? A lockout that impacted training camp and the preseason. It's not a perfect comparison to last year without a preseason, but I think it's fair to say that the defenses struggled last year in a way we shouldn't expect them to repeat.

Three quarterbacks whose ADP appears to be heavily impacted by 2020 are Josh Allen (QB2, 17.6 overall), Aaron Rodgers (QB5, 38.7 overall), Justin Herbert (QB6 43.3 overall). 

Herbert is the toughest to gauge because 2020 was his only season. But we also know his numbers were greatly influenced by the fact that the Chargers ran 1,127 offensive plays (100 more than league-median). With a new head coach and offensive coordinator, that number should regress, giving Herbert little chance of matching his 2020 volume. 

Allen and Rodgers are particularly in comparison to Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, who both have ADPs in Round 5, where I have them ranked. Prescott was better than both Allen and Rodgers on a per game basis in both 2019 and 2020. Wilson was considerably better than both 2019, improved by 2.5 points last year, and finished behind both last year. 

We really have no reason to believe Allen will be three rounds better than Prescott and Wilson or 18 picks better than Lamar Jackson for that matter. And the case for Rodgers and Herbert is even shakier. Don't get caught reaching for the guys who popped last year when there are so many similar options available later.

Beware of the crowded receiving rooms

It's great for NFL teams to have a loaded pass corps, but it can be a problem for Fantasy Football. The Buccaneers, Cowboys and Steelers all have target equations that are difficult to parse. Thankfully, in CBS leagues, none of the Steelers are being drafted in the first five rounds, so they can all still return value. The same is not true for the other offenses.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both bust candidates with a fourth-round ADP. That's because we know Tom Brady will heavily involve his running backs and tight ends, plus he'll have Antonio Brown for a full season. Last year, Brown actually led the Buccaneers in targets and receptions per game. 

Evans is my biggest concern, just because we can feel quite confident touchdown regression is coming. We've already seen it twice in his career. In 2014 and 2016 he scored 12 touchdowns. In 2015 he scored three and in 2017 he scored five. The problem is that last year he saw a career-low 6.8 targets per game and caught a career low 4.4 passes per game. Those numbers, combined with likely touchdown regression could make Evans a mid-range No. 3 receiver.

In Dallas, CeeDee Lamb has pulled convincingly ahead of Amari Cooper, and that doesn't make much sense to me. By all accounts, Cooper is fully healthy and he was better than Lamb with and without Dak Prescott last year. Cooper has been a bona fide star with Prescott, averaging nearly 80 yards per game and 9.4 yards per target in 29 complete games they've played together. But also, if Lamb, Cooper, and Michael Gallup play 17 games, I'm not sure any of them can justify a Round 4 price tag because I don't think anyone is getting more than a 21% target share.

The problem with both of these situations is that one injury could make the top two receivers on the team stars. So fading them is a bit of a risk, but the math doesn't work out at their ADP.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire and potential running back busts

Before talking about any other running backs, it's probably best to address Edwards-Helaire. Like the receivers above, I don't deny he has the upside to justify his ADP. He has first-round upside even. Here's what I don't like:

Edwards-Helaire was barely a top five running back prospect before the draft last year, but the Chiefs drafted him 32nd overall and he instantly jumped to No. 1 in Dynasty drafts and the first round in redraft after Damien Williams opted out. The Chiefs played him at least 60% of the snaps in each of his first six games and he averaged 21 touches per game. They liked what they saw so much that they went and signed Le'Veon Bell and only played Edwards-Helaire in 60% of snaps once the rest of the year. In the Super Bowl, Darrel Williams was played short yardage and passing downs over Edwards-Helaire.

He was a rookie, so I don't want to discount the chance of him improving and receiving that big role again. If he does, and stays healthy this time, he'll be a value, not a bust, at the two-three turn. But I don't think that's more likely than it is for James Robinson, David Montgomery, Chris Carson, or D'Andre Swift, and they're all being drafted well after him. 

The other two running backs who worry me are Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Hunt is pretty simple; his role greatly diminished when Chubb returned from injury last year and he's being drafted ahead of backs who could become Fantasy starters without an injury. Chubb is a PPR-only discussion, but he needed a huge touchdown rate to justify a first-round cost last year. As we saw at the end of the 2019 season, that isn't guaranteed. I don't want to draft an early-downs back in a timeshare in Round 1, even if he is one of the best pure runners in football.

Unicorn or bust?

I've written plenty about why I don't like Kyle Pitts' ADP this summer, so I'll try to keep it brief. It is possible Kyle Pitts could have the best rookie tight end season of the modern era and still not live up to his ADP. View him more like a receiver? He needs to have a great season for a rookie wide receiver to justify his ADP. No rookie receiver from this class is being drafted within a two rounds of him by CBS ADP. I also think there's a little more risk than people are letting on that Arthur Smith could unveil an offense much more run-heavy than what we're used to seeing in Atlanta. And Hayden Hurst isn't going to completely disappear either.

I love Pitts the prospect. I've targeted him in Dynasty. I'm just not willing to bet a fourth- or fifth-round seasonal pick on a historical outlier. But I think it's fine if you do, as long as you know what you're betting on going in.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.