2023 NFL Mock Draft: Bryce Young among five quarterbacks drafted; plus more Fantasy Football fallout
The QB landscape is about to get a major shake up if this mock plays out Thursday night
By
Adam Aizer
•
1 min read
I don't know about you, but I'm ready for Bijan Robinson to be on my Fantasy teams! First he'll have to be on an NFL team, and that will presumably happen on Thursday night. Robinson is the Fantasy headliner of the 2023 draft class and one of the best overall prospects. Good luck figuring out when he'll be drafted. Do the Falcons take him eighth overall? Does he make it all the way to the Cowboys at 26? He'll be at worst a second-round pick in Fantasy drafts with Top 5 potential if he ends up in the right spot.
While much of the Fantasy-relevant draft picks will be made on Friday, Thursday should provide us plenty of non-Bijan storylines particularly at quarterback as this could be the third time since 2018 that five quarterbacks are selected in the first round. Don't get too excited about the signal callers. The outcomes could range anywhere from Josh Rosen to Josh Allen.
My mock draft does have five quarterbacks coming off the board along with a running back, four wide receivers and two tight ends. Based on reports, I'm probably too low on Will Levis, but if he doesn't go second overall he could slide. And don't get lazy! Read the whole thing because we've got some Fantasy fireworks toward the end of the first round.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
My sources tell me Bryce Young is the pick here for Carolina. My sources, of course, are the actual reporters with actual sources who are reporting that Bryce Young will be the pick for Carolina. Young is incredibly talented, and we've learned that he is a great processor with enough mobility to avoid the pass rush. We'll soon find out if he can be an inspiration for short quarterbacks everywhere! From a Fantasy standpoint, Young is strictly a 2-QB league kind of guy, and he is a borderline Top 20 QB. Young will be behind Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr, but perhaps ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo and Desmond Ridder. This pick makes Adam Thielen a borderline Top 120 pick and Miles Sanders remains an RB2.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
No one seems to know what the Texans will do with this pick, but we'll give them a battle-tested stud edge rusher. Will Anderson is another young piece for a defense that has potential. Houston somewhat shockingly allowed the fewest Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2022, but that was mostly because they were so dreadful against the run. With this pick, it's not hard to envision the Texans boasting a strong pass defense if last year's rookie defensive backs Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre have strong seasons. Watch out, Trevor Lawrence!
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Round 1 - Pick 3
The Cardinals seem likely to trade this pick, but this mock will not feature any trades (if it were me, I'd trade Kyler Murray and draft a quarterback. But nobody ever listens to me). While Arizona badly needs offensive line help, the best non-quarterbacks available here are on the defensive side of the ball. Tyree Wilson has all the buzz right now as a high upside pass rusher who has emerged as the Vegas favorite to be selected third overall. Arizona's pass defense needs the help after losing cornerback Byron Murphy and edge rusher Zach Allen in free agency.
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Pick 1 - Round 4
C.J. Stroud is strong-armed, accurate, and hopefully willing to use his legs as he did against Georgia in the CFP semifinals. A reportedly low score on a cognitive test is taking some of the shine off Stroud right now, but looking at the overall body of work and the physical tools will get Colts fans excited about finally getting a long-term solution at quarterback. As a rookie, Stroud will be a borderline Top 20 quarterback just like Bryce Young. This changes nothing for Jonathan Taylor who remains a Top 5 running back in Fantasy. Michael Pittman gets a boost. He dealt with a ghastly passing game in 2022 that relegated him to short area targets and failed to utilize his skillset. I could see a nice bounceback season for Pittman with something like WR18 as a realistic upside. Stroud is QB3 in Dynasty for me. More on that later. Actually, right now …
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Geno Smith's team-friendly contract makes it easy for the Seahawks to move on from him after 2023 if they so choose. Anthony Richardson is a perfect complement to Smith. Richardson's 53.8% completion rate in 2022 is an obvious concern, but his outrageous athleticism makes him one of the most athletic quarterback prospects ever and one of the most intriguing prospects in this draft. If there were any player who could use a year behind a veteran QB, this is the player. Let Richardson sit and learn. It worked for Aaron Rodgers. It worked for Daunte Culpepper. It can work for Anthony Richardson. While I like the pick for Seattle, I don't love it for the Seahawks wide receivers. If Geno Smith struggles and the Seahawks go to Richardson, that will not be good for the pass catchers. Nor is it great from a dynasty perspective for Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Richardson, meanwhile, would be my QB2 in Dynasty behind Bryce Young.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
The Lions just traded cornerback Jeff Okudah to the Falcons but added Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency. Regardless, they badly need to upgrade at cornerback and will do so with Devon Witherspoon. The Lions allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2022 but could be much improved this season especially if they add pass rush help later in the first round (spoiler alert).
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Round 1 - Pick 7
The Raiders could go in a lot of different directions here with offensive line, pass rusher and cornerback as needs. I'm giving them cornerback Christian Gonzalez to help a defense that allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL. I'm also giving them Gonzalez because Gonzalez has elite speed and well, ya know, the Raiders like speed. Fun fact: Only one of the last six quarterbacks to face the Raiders in 2022 scored more than 19 Fantasy points and it was Brock Purdy (21 Fantasy points in Week 17). Let's hope the Raiders can keep that momentum going as they add a top cornerback.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
It's very hard to pass up a pass rusher here as the Falcons had the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL according to TruMedia and recorded the second fewest sacks. But this is a mock draft and I love Fantasy Football, so let's put Bijan Robinson on one of the best run offenses in the NFL! Atlanta was the best run blocking team in football in 2022 according to PFF, and while Tyler Allgeier finished strong and showed some promise, Bijan Robinson can take this running game to a new level. Robinson's breakaway speed behind an elite run blocking offensive line makes for a dangerous combination. Robinson would enter Round 1 discussion in Fantasy drafts, but he may not catch a lot of passes in this offense so you might prefer some wide receivers ahead of him in PPR. The impact on Kyle Pitts and Drake London is difficult to predict and will probably depend on Desmond Ridder's play. I'll call this a downgrade for the pass catchers as there is little chance the Falcons are not one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. If Bijan Robinson is the pick, I'd start looking at London and Pitts in Round 6 of a 12-team league.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
I wouldn't be surprised to see Jalen Carter get drafted third overall, but I have him slipping to the Bears here. Carter is one of the most talented players in the class. The Bears desperately need help up front as they could not get any pressure on quarterbacks and allowed the second most Fantasy points to opposing running backs. Carter is an easy pick for Chicago.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
The fact that Nolan Smith recorded only 12.5 sacks in four seasons at Georgia should not deter any team from betting on his talent and upside. This may not be an immediate need for an Eagles team that led the NFL with 70 sacks in 2022, but they did lose Javon Hargrave in free agency and they could use some youth on the defensive line.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Tennessee was the worst pass blocking team in football according to PFF. The Titans need to re-establish their identity as a physical team that wins up front, and Peter Skoronski will help with that regardless of his position. While there is some debate as to whether Skoronski is a tackle or a guard, there doesn't seem to be much debate about how good of a player he is. I don't see a huge Fantasy impact but adding a quality offensive lineman is never a bad thing. Now let's see if Skoronski is blocking for Derrick Henry or if the Henry trade rumors have any legs.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
The first wide receiver is off the board as the Texans select Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a slot receiver who recorded just five catches in an injury-plagued 2022 season but absolutely dominated in 2021 (95 catches, 1,606 yards, 9 touchdowns). JSN was the best wide receiver on a team with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and dazzled in the Rose Bowl with 347 yards and three touchdowns against Utah. As far as the fit goes, I kind of hate it. I already mocked Will Anderson to the Texans instead of C.J. Stroud which means it's probably Davis Mills for the Texans. What would I expect from a rookie wide receiver with bad quarterback play? Well, let's start with the aforementioned Wilson and Olave. They finished as WR31 and WR27 per game, respectively, in PPR. Or we could focus on the Texans and look at the 2021 version of Brandin Cooks (90 catches, 1,037 yards, 6 touchdowns in 16 games) who finished as WR22 per game catching passes from Mills. The safe bet on JSN would be to rank him around WR24 with a limited ceiling because the Texans simply will not throw for a lot of yards or touchdowns. JSN has a good chance to be a target hog which should provide a good floor. He's a starter in 3-WR leagues beginning in Week 1. In Dynasty, he's WR1 and the second pick in a rookie draft behind Bijan Robinson, assuming it's a 1-QB league.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Christian Watson or Zay Flowers? Who would you prefer if the Packers select Flowers here? I'd stick with Watson and I'd draft him in Round 5. Flowers would be more like a Round 8 pick for me. While he is small and probably plays mostly in the slot, Flowers has great YAC ability and can beat defenders deep. I do see a big difference between him and Jaxon Smith-Njiba. Had JSN been the pick here, I probably would rank JSN ahead of Watson. But I don't see Flowers having the same kind of immediate impact, so Watson remains set for a Year 2 breakout. Of course the big concern for these guys is Jordan Love. Will he be an above average starter? Will the Packers let him throw enough? You have to wonder about how prolific this passing offense will be. It's why I can't commit to Flowers as WR2 in Dynasty (behind JSN) until I see where the other top wide receivers end up. While we're on the subject of Love, this pick definitely makes him an intriguing 2-QB pick and someone I would draft ahead of the rookie quarterbacks.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Interesting! Just two years after the Patriots used the fifteenth pick on Mac Jones, they are using the fourteenth pick on his replacement. Jones could get traded or he can fight it out with Will Levis in training camp to see who becomes the starting quarterback for Bill Belichick and new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien. Levis is an interesting prospect who was better in 2021 before struggling in a new offense while playing through foot and shoulder issues in 2022. Evaluators are split on Levis but we know he has a great arm and mobility. I think there is a lot of upside with Levis which makes this pick very interesting for Juju Smith-Schuster. As of now, Rhamondre Stevenson is the only Patriot I am excited to draft, but a promising preseason from Levis would move Juju up the draft board, perhaps to Round 8 in PPR. For Dynasty, Levis will be my QB4. I would not draft him in a 1-QB league in 2022.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
This is the easiest pick of the draft. I would be shocked if the Jets did not draft an offensive lineman - specifically an offensive tackle - with this selection. The Jets are loaded just about everywhere with offensive line being a glaring exception. Paris Johnson is a great prospect who could be a Week 1 starter. I tend to have low expectations for rookie offensive linemen. For every Rashawn Slater there is an Evan Neal. I can't project Johnson to be a big difference maker as a rookie, but that upside does exist and if Johnson is a rookie sensation, the Jets are a Super Bowl contender and Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will be Fantasy studs.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Washington's front office is seen smashing desks and throwing notebooks and papers across the office as Paris Johnson is selected just before the Commanders can draft him. In complete disarray, the Commanders pivot to speedy defensive back Deonte Banks. A low-level staffer quietly emerges from the background and says, "Ya know, with Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott in the division, defending the pass is a huge priority." After taking a moment to reflect on what has happened, the front office realizes they made a sensible pick and everyone is happy again.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The last time the Steelers selected an offensive tackle in the first round, Americans were swept away by "The Macarena," Mel Gibson reminded us of the real meaning of FREEEEEEEDOOMMMMM while starring in Braveheart, and I still had a Blockbuster card. The year was 1996 and Pittsburgh drafted Jamain Stephens with the 29th pick. This year it will be Broderick Jones in the first round. Jones will try to protect Kenny Pickett and pave the way for Najee Harris. Jones may not be great out of the gate as he is not as NFL-ready as Paris Johnson, but he has a high ceiling.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
You can begin to see the Lions defense being much more formidable. I mocked cornerback Devon Witherspoon to the Lions with the sixth pick, and now they add a pass rusher to pair with Aiden Hutchinson. You have to wonder if the Lions would consider a wide receiver given the six-game suspension for Jameson Williams, but that feels like a reach in the first round.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
The Buccaneers need a lot of help. I'm very tempted to give them Hendon Hooker here, but I'm probably not going to be the GM that drafts a 25-year-old quarterback in the first round. Offensive line used to be a strength for the Bucs, but it feels like an obvious need at this point which makes Darnell Wright a logical pick. The only problem with Wright is that he is viewed by many as strictly a right tackle. The Bucs already have a star right tackle in Tristan Wirfs. Wirfs, however, said he is already working at left tackle in case he asked to switch sides. If Wright is the pick, Wirfs will likely be a left tackle in 2023.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Interior defensive line was obviously a point of emphasis for Seattle this offseason as they signed Dre'Mont Jones and Jarran Reed. That won't preclude them from adding more at the position. Bryan Bresee can help the Seahawks run defense and hopefully provide some interior pass rush. The Seahawks allowed the third-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2022. Given their offseason acquisitions and this draft pick, they could show significant improvement in 2023.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
He went to Pitt and plays defensive tackle, so he must be the next Aaron Donald! OK, we won't get too far ahead of ourselves with Calijah Kancey, but there is a lot to like. Kancey is rising up mock draft boards. The Chargers desperately need help against the run. At this point, Kancey might be better as a pass rusher. Still, the Chargers need some talent up the middle and Kancey makes sense here.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
I expect Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez to be the first two cornerbacks selected. After that, it feels like a toss up. I have Joey Porter Jr. going to Baltimore as the fourth cornerback off the board. This would be the second consecutive season the Ravens are selecting a defensive back in the first round (Kyle Hamilton in 2022). The Ravens actually allowed only 20 touchdown passes in 2022 and six of them were by Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2. Their pass defense wasn't so bad. If they feel like they don't need a cornerback here, a wide receiver is certainly in play.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Ok I just couldn't pass up Hooker to the Vikings! No 2023 Fantasy impact here as Kirk Cousins is Minnesota's guy perhaps for only one more season. Hendon Hooker could take over after that. It's difficult to evaluate a quarterback who had such a great season as a 24-year-old. In his two seasons at Tennessee after transferring from Virginia Tech, Hooker threw 58 touchdowns to only five interceptions! Was he a product of the system? A grown man competing against boys? Or is he just a stud? We'll find out beginning in 2024. He is my QB5 in Dynasty.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Emmaneul Forbes had more pick sixes than the CBS Sports Pick Six Podcast! That doesn't make any sense! Here's the point: Forbes is a playmaker. He intercepted 14 passes in three college seasons and took six of them to the house. The Jaguars may already have a star at cornerback in Tyson Campbell. A pairing of Campbell and Forbes could be fun to watch unless you're an opposing quarterback.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
After listening to scouting reports of the offensive linemen on the With the First Pick Podcast, I am all in on O'Cyrus Torrance. Pete Prisco had him as his top offensive lineman in the class. Others on the Podcast had him lower simply because he is a guard and not a tackle, but everyone agreed that Torrance is a nasty interior lineman. He could be an immediate starter for a team that lost some depth at center and guard. While Saquon Barkley had a very encouraging season, it's easy to forget that he endured a stretch of six games in which he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry and had Fantasy managers wondering "what's wrong with Saquon Barkley?" Barkley doesn't need much help, but Torrance would provide it. This would be a great pick for Barkley and Daniel Jones.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
I can only hear people compare Michael Mayer to Jason Witten so many times before I mock him to the Dallas Cowboys and pencil him in for the Monday Night Football broadcast booth in 10 years. Mayer is the best tight end in this class because unlike Dalton Kincaid (the best receiving tight end in the class), Mayer can block. We know Fantasy tight ends don't typically excel in their rookie seasons (with some exceptions like Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts). Having said that, I'd be tempted to rank Mayer in the Top 12 this season. Doesn't he have more upside than someone like David Njoku or Greg Dulcich? If Brandin Cooks is past his prime, then Mayer could become the second-most targeted player on the team at some point. That's a recipe for big Fantasy success.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
If the Bills have the choice between Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison, their selection might tell you what they think about Gabe Davis. Johnston is the bigger option and a true outside receiver. Addison checked in at just 173 pounds at the NFL Combine and may be best suited in the slot. I have the Bills taking Johnston which is a significant blow to the Fantasy value of Davis. I'd be tempted to rank Johnston ahead of Davis out of the gate. I am actually a Davis fan, but he has had a fairly underwhelming NFL career and Johnston would arrive with a lot of hype and similar big play ability (he averaged 19.0 yards per catch in his college career). Johnston would be worth drafting somewhere in the Round 7-8 range in 12-team leagues.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Based on reports, it would be surprising for Myles Murphy to be available this late in the draft. Consider this a steal for a Bengals team that had the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL in 2023. As far as Fantasy goes, maybe Murphy can play running back? The Bengals might need one of those. The good news is this draft is super deep at running back and there will be plenty of talent in rounds two and three.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
I love Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid will enter the NFL as a pass catching tight end who adds very little as a blocker. I don't get Fantasy points for blocks so give me the guy who can get downfield and be a game changer at the tight end position. There are some negatives including his age (will be 24 in October) and some medical concerns about his back, but this is an exciting player from a Fantasy perspective. How about the fit? If Michael Thomas and Chris Olave stay on the field, I don't see a huge rookie season from Kincaid. Realistically, while I'd love to see a big bounce back season from Thomas, I can't expect much from him at this point. Kincaid could be thrust into a significant role with significant targets. He has upside even in his rookie season. So that begs the Fantasy question: Michael Mayer with the Cowboys or Kincaid with the Saints? As of now, I'd take Kincaid.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
This pick probably won't matter for Fantasy purposes this season. However, the Eagles need to think about their future as Lane Johnson won't be playing right tackle forever. While I was so tempted to mock Jahmyr Gibbs to the Eagles, I see them focusing on the line of scrimmage and drafting Anton Harrison for 2023 depth and potentially as a 2024 starter.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
As Lt. Frank Drebin once said, "I love it!" Jordan Addison underwhelmed somewhat with USC in 2022 after winning the Biletnikoff Award as the best wide receiver in the country in 2021 with Pittsburgh. He is thin at 173 pounds and might be used mostly as a slot receiver. Would he be the best Fantasy wide receiver on the Chiefs? I'd lean yes. I'd rank him ahead of Skyy Moore without hesitation, but I still believe in Kadarius Toney. Toney is a former first-round pick and he is one of the shiftiest and most exciting playmakers with the ball in his hands. He just doesn't have the ball in his hands all that much. I suspect Addison will be a more complete and reliable receiver than Tony. They might both be worth drafting with a Top 100 pick. Even as I write this sentence I do not know which wide receiver I would rank higher so I'm just going to go for it and say it's JORDAN ADDISON AHEAD OF KADARIUS TONEY THERE I SAID IT I HOPE YOU'RE HAPPY! THIS FIRST ROUND IS COMPLETE!
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