Fantasy Football Week 1 Quarterback Preview: Starts, Sits, Waivers, Numbers to know, and more
Everything you need to know about quarterback for Fantasy Football in Week 1
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3 min read
Changing the rankings over from a season-long view to a Week 1 view is always a bit of a shock. While many rankings appear similar, there are always some outliers based on injuries, matchups, or other unexpected factors. This week at quarterback, it is incredible how much of a difference there is. Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff fell out of the top 12. Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, and Jordan Love are in.
This massive change highlights something significant that we talk about in the summer, but matters when you are making your lineup decisions as well. The difference between QB12 and QB21 in my Week 1 projections is 0.85 Fantasy points. Even the difference between QB7 and QB12 is only 1.28 Fantasy points. One fumble could drop a guy from seventh to 20th and fumbles are about the most impossible thing to forecast.
First, note that any small changes in who is playing, any slight shifts in the betting lines, and a major change in weather could significantly impact a quarterback's position over the next five days. In other words, do not make your lineup decisions based on projections or rankings on Tuesday morning. Wait as long as you can and check back with us regularly. My projections will be updated on SportsLine whenever I make an update in my model.
But back to those betting lines. A team's implied point total at FanDuel drives my point expectation for them for the week. How many points we think a team is going to score is directly correlated with how many Fantasy points we expect them to score. So, yes, when Trevor Lawrence's Jaguars have an implied total of 25 and Dak Prescott's Cowboys are at 20, that will make a big difference in the projections. I do have Prescott projected for 20 more passing yards, but Lawrence for 0.27 more touchdowns.
That is not to say that I think you should make your lineup decisions the same way I do. I am just thankful if my projections are a part of your process. You always find all of my updated projections over at Sportsline.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
Week 1 QB Preview
QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 22.5 -- The Lions have an implied total of 22.5 points. They averaged more than 33 points per game last year and only had two games where they scored fewer than 23. This year may be different for Jared Goff and the offense.
- 63 -- The Denver Broncos led the NFL with 63 sacks last season. I don't really want to start Cam Ward, even as a QB2.
- 7.1 -- The Jacksonville Jaguars gave up the highest net yards per attempt to QBs last year. The Panthers were second. It could be a great day through the air for both Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young.
- 6.2 -- Patrick Mahomes' 6.2 intend air yards per attempt ranked 34th out of 36 starters last year. The Chiefs say they will be more aggressive through the air, we'll be watching closely in Week 1 for evidence of that.
- 21.1% -- Caleb Williams had the third highest bad throw % at 21.1% last year. If he cleans that up the Bears offense could soar under Ben Johnson, and Williams could quickly more into the top 12.
- 4.7 -- Drake Maye averaged 4.7 rush attempts per game from Week 6-17. That is great for Fantasy but there has been some talk that Josh McDaniels may pull back on the reigns.
- 242.1 -- Jayden Daniels averaged mroe than 240 passing yards per game in his 18 complete games including the playoffs. Even a small boost to that could make him QB1 overall this year. That is where I have him ranked in Week 1.
- 207 -- Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton combined for 207 targets last year. As of Tuesday morning we don't expect any of them to play Week 1.
- 28.3 -- Jordan Love averaged just 28.3 pass attempts per game in 2024. We are expecting that number to regress back towards the 34.1 he averaged in 2023, but not all the way.
- 0 -- J.J. McCarthy isn't a rookie, but he has never attempted a pass in the NFL. He only attempted 713 in his career at Michigan. Don't be surprised if the Vikings are a little more run heavy early in the year.
QB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)
Lawrence is still available in more than a third of leagues. I wouldn't drop Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Justin Fields, or Brock Purdy for him, but if you have an open roster spot at the end of your bench, I would add Lawrence and start him over those guys. The additions of Liam Coen and Travis Hunter give Lawrence an excellent chance to produce the best season of his career. A great matchup against the Panthers in Week 1 could get him off to a running start. Baker Mayfield was the top suggestion in this section a year ago. That worked out okay.
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Young is on the other side of this potential shootout with the Jaguars and if Lawrence is rostered in your league Young is probably the top streamer available. Young has a great matchup and a new WR1 in first round pick Tetairoa McMillan. Young was much improved as a passer in the second half last year and even ran for five touchdowns in his final five games. For what it's worth, Dave Richard prefers Young to Lawrence this week.
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I was disappointed Flacco didn't come out higher in my Week 1 projections. The main problem is that he loses more Fantasy points to turnovers than he gains in rushing production. The other problem is despite a great matchup against the Bengals, his Browns have a mediocre 21 points implied by the lines this week. Still, he's thrown for over 4,700 yards and 32 TDs in his last 17 starts so I wouldn't blame you for running him out there Week 1.
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One To Stash (QB Preview)
I know, I should give it up. I can't yet. Richardson is the top Qb I want to roster that isn't starting this week. I know what Shane Steichen said about Daniel Jones, but I also know the history of Daniel Jones. If something goes terribly wrong early in the season Richardson will be the starter and there will be a rush to the waiver wire to add him. He should already be rostered in any league where you can start two QBs, and Dynasty league, and any league with deep benches where all the starting QBs are already rostered. If he gets a chance to start for the Colts, there is a good chance we will rank him as a starter for Fantasy purposes.
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QB Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Unsurprisingly Lawrence is my favorite QB value on FanDuel in Week 1. This is also my favorite game to stack and Young would be my second QB if I was playing multiple lineups. These are two below average defenses and two young, cheap QBs who added elite weapons in the draft. Lawrence has the advantage of also having added an elite offensive coordinator after last year's disaster. Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter, and Brenton Strange are the top guys to stack Lawrence with, but Travis Etienne and Dyami Brown could be overlooked.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I don't particularly love Fields this week He has a terribly difficult matchup and for DFS purposes he's a hard guy to build stacks around because he does so much on his own. But his roster rate should be extremely low, for all the reasons I mentioned above, and because of what he does with his legs, he always has the potential to score 30-plus points in a game.
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QB Preview
Heath's projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
