2021 Suburban Stakes odds, predictions, lineup: Expert who hit Belmont superfecta makes surprising picks

Bob Weir just locked in his Suburban Stakes 2021 predictions, bets and picks

By CBS Sports Staff

Jul 3, 2021 at 4:05 pm ET • 3 min read

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An automatic berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic will be on the line when six of the country's top older horses -- including the No. 1-ranked thoroughbred in the country -- leave the starting gate in the 2021 Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y. The Michael Stidham-trained Mystic Guide, who's No. 1 in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, is listed as the 1-1 morning-line favorite in the 2021 Suburban Stakes odds. He last raced in March winning the $12 million Dubai World Cup.

The Todd Pletcher-trained Happy Saver, who is a perfect 5-for-5 in his career, is getting 6-5 odds in the 2021 Suburban Stakes field. The other four horses are 10-1 or higher. Post time is 5:44 p.m. ET. With a well-accomplished field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what racing insider Bob Weir has to say before making any 2021 Suburban Stakes picks.

Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.

Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.

Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5, with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50.

This year, he has hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes, with the Tampa Bay Derby score returning $1,414. He also hit the Pick 6 at Santa Anita Park on May 16. And last weekend he hit the exacta in the Stephen Foster Stakes and the late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs. Those are just some of his scores in 2021.

Now, Weir has handicapped the 2021 Suburban Stakes horses, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see them here.

Top 2021 Suburban Stakes predictions

Weir, who studied the pace scenario and looked at the Beyer Speed Figures of every horse in the race, is not going with Mystic Guide as his top pick even though he is the top-ranked horse in the country and the 1-1 favorite. Bred and owned by Godolphin, Mystic Guide has been terrific as a 4-year-old. In February he won the Grade 3 Razorback by six lengths and returned one month later to capture the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup.

But Weir believes the connections of Mystic Guide will consider Saturday's race as just the first step in a long road toward their end-of-the-year goal and not have the horse 100 percent cranked. "It's fair to assume he's not at his absolute peak for this race," Weir tells SportsLine. "He may still be better than these, but this has to be considered the starting point for his path to the Breeders' Cup Classic." Weir prefers another horse over Mystic Guide.

How to make 2021 Suburban Stakes, bets

Weir's top pick is a horse who "could be on the improve." He also is high on a double-digit long shot who "was a little disappointing" in his last race. Weir is including these horses in his 2021 Suburban Stakes bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Suburban Stakes 2021? And which horse is a must-back? Check out the latest Suburban Stakes odds 2021 below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for Saturday's Suburban Stakes 2021.