Kentucky Derby 2025 weather forecast: Muddy track conditions could be in play with rain expected
The 151st Kentucky Derby is expected to be run in wet track conditions on Saturday
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2 min read
The Kentucky Derby has managed five straight years of dry weather, but when they run the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday, that streak is expected to change.
For the first time since 2019, the forecast for the first weekend in May is calling for all day rain in Louisville, which should make for sloppy, muddy track conditions at Churchill Downs. The good news is any electricity in the forecast is expected to come earlier in the day. The projected thunderstorms should move out of the area by 7 a.m. ET, with some isolated storms possible into the early afternoon. However, it is supposed to just be rain showers for most of the morning and afternoon, with a half-inch of rain expected to fall.
There could be a break in the rain in time for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby, as the rain probability drops to 40% from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m., but even if it's not actively raining, the track will undoubtedly still be quite wet by the Derby's post time at 6:57 p.m.
Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, betting odds: Top win, place, show, trifecta, exacta, superfecta expert picks
CBS Sports Staff
That will matter to bettors, as track conditions always play a role in a race, and we could see odds shift throughout the day based on how sloppy the track looks leading up to post time and how that will impact the race's pace.
If you are looking for an underdog to follow this year, Neoequos (47-1) and Owen Almighty (39-1) are the biggest longshots. Those two don't compare, however, with some of the biggest longshots to win all time. Look no further than 2022 when Rich Strike (80-1) took home the roses after being a late addition to the field. Plus, horses like Mine That Bird (50-1) in 2009 and Giacomo (50-1) in 2005 have also come up big on the grandest stage of them all. Whoever wins on Saturday, all attention will soon turn to Baltimore, Maryland and Pimlico Race Course for the Preakness Stakes and the second leg of the fabled Triple Crown.
2025 Kentucky Derby weather forecast
| Time of Day | Temperature | Precipitation |
|---|---|---|
Morning (9 a.m.-12 p.m.) | 60 degrees | 75% chance of rain/thunderstorms |
Early Afternoon (12-4 p.m.) | 65 degrees | 75% chance of rain |
Late Afternoon (4-6 p.m.) | 64 degrees | 40% chance of rain |
Post Time (6:57 p.m.) | 63 degrees | 40% chance of rain |
Forecast via AccuWeather
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Visit SportsLine to see Jody Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed a colossal 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
