UFC 196 Expert Picks: Predicting McGregor vs. Diaz, Holm vs. Tate
A lot of people are picking the champions that will enter the ring on Saturday at UFC 196, but what do our experts think of Nate Diaz and Miesha Tate's chances?
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8 min read
More UFC: Why McGregor wins | Why Diaz wins | Inside the Numbers | How to watch
Perhaps it’s because he’s been a pro fighter for more than a decade.
Perhaps it’s because he’s also the little brother of a pro fighter. Or perhaps it’s because he was brought up in the far-from-glamorous environs of Stockton, California.
Regardless of the reasoning, one thing is clear.
More so than a lot of guys who punch, kick and grapple for a living, Nate Diaz sounds authentic.
And when it comes to his assignment this weekend -- a UFC 196 main event against the sport’s latest tough-talking supernova, Conor McGregor -- authenticity takes the form of awareness that no matter which man emerges from what could be 25 minutes in the octagon, he won’t do so without scars.
“We’re at war here,” he said. “A lot of [McGregor past foes] got real scared. This is the fight game. If you get scared, you shouldn’t have signed up. This ain’t a place to be scared. We’re gonna go in there. We’re gonna fight. One of us is gonna win and one of us is gonna lose.”
The genuineness doesn’t stop there.
In fact, it’s augmented by the notion that -- again, more so than many others -- Diaz isn’t conflicted by an idea that he needs to do something other than fight to get himself over in the eyes of the viewers.
“We’re both good martial artists, good fighters and we put on entertaining fights,” he said. “You’re gonna want to watch this fight. There ain’t no other fights to watch. These fighters out here are confused. They’re trying to be this super athlete and this positive role model and this thing they think people want to see, but let’s not forget that people tune in to see fighting.”
The pre-Saturday consensus is that they’ll get it, even though it’s not gone exactly to plan.
McGregor was supposed to spend March 5 locked up with UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos while engaging in the promotion’s first champion vs. champion match since 2009. Instead, dos Anjos was forced to bow out after suffering a broken left foot in training, which necessitated the call to Diaz just 11 days before Bruce Buffer’s introductions.
The non-title fight will be contested at 170 pounds.
Diaz had his own shot at dos Anjos in December 2014 and dropped a unanimous three-round decision in his first fight in 13 months. He took another 372 days before returning for his most recent performance, a unanimous three-round defeat of Michael Johnson that earned Fight of the Night honors on the undercard of dos Anjos’ successful defense against Donald Cerrone on Dec. 19 in Orlando, Florida.
McGregor, for those who’ve spent recent months under a rock, succeeded Ronda Rousey as the sport’s reigning “it” performer thanks to a 13-second vaporization of Jose Aldo in December -- which came 28 days after Rousey’s momentum was halted by a second-round KO loss to Holly Holm.
Holm, incidentally, will make her first post-Rousey appearance in the night’s final set-up bout, defending her newly won bantamweight title against two-time Rousey victim Miesha Tate.
If things go well against Tate, she’s expected to meet Rousey again later in 2016, though she’s been reticent in Saturday’s run-up to discuss anything beyond Saturday’s opponent.
“You’re never promised another fight,” Holm said. “I want to make sure I make the most of this fight and not look past it.”
The McGregor-Diaz and Holm-Tate matchups will top a five-bout, pay-per-view card that will go live at 10 p.m. ET. Here's how the rest of the card shakes out.
| UFC 196 Main Fight Card | ||
| Weightclass | Favorite | Challenger |
| Welterweight | Conor McGregor (-520) | Nate Diaz (+405) |
| Women's Bantamweight | Holly Holm (-275) | Miesha Tate (+235) |
| Light Heavyweight | Ilir Latifi (-195) | Giant Vilante (+170) |
| Light Heavyweight | Corey Anderson (-300) | Tom Lawlor (+250) |
| Women's Bantamweight | Amanda Nunes (-125) | Valentina Shevchenko (+105) |
Fox Sports 1 will air a separate four-bout preliminary show that begins at 8 p.m. A UFC Fight Pass early prelims show includes three more bouts and airs at 6:30 p.m.
As mentioned, McGregor is a significant favorite. It'll take a $520 wager to return a $100 profit on him, while a $100 outlay on Diaz would return $405 for an upset. Holm is also the betting favorite, and would require a $275 wager to win an extra $100. Tate, meanwhile, would return $235 for a $100 risk.
McGregor, not surprisingly, is not forecasting an upset.
“I just can't see [Diaz] taking the shots,” he said. “He's going to feel a new level of precision, a new level of power and a new level of unorthodox fighting that he's never experienced before. I hope he'll last until the end of the first but I don't see it.”
| McGregor-Diaz Tale of the Tape | ||
| Category | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
| Record | 19-2, 17 KO/Sub | 19-10, 16 KO/Sub |
| Height | 5-foot-9 | 6-foot |
| Reach | 74" | 76" |
| Leg Reach | 40" | 38" |
| Weight | 170 | 170 |
| Age | 27 | 30 |
| Hometown | Dublin, Ireland | Stockton, California |
How McGregor wins: Ask Aldo about McGregor’s standup game. Ask him about the Irishman’s post-fight mantra about precision beating power and timing beating speed. Or, if you prefer, ask anyone who doubted going in that the challenger would win. It’s no mystery. McGregor’s a pressure guy. He has a good left hand and is effective with knees and kicks. He’ll succeed against a perhaps less-than-completely-prepared Diaz by being the more precise guy and the better-timed guy.
How Diaz wins: A lot will depend on how Diaz looks at the start. He’s the taller man, he has longer arms and he has more experience with fighting guys his own size, so if he’s able to take the initiative and throw McGregor off his game because of those dimensions, his confidence will swell. If that occurs, and if Diaz is still landing shots -- both verbally and with his fists -- at the end of five minutes, an upset might very well follow.
Fitzsimmons prediction: In the aftermath of Aldo, anyone picking against McGregor does so at his or her own peril. Though the 170-pound agreement fuels a notion that Diaz is a significantly bigger man, McGregor insists he walks around near 170 and will benefit by not having to cut weight. He may not be the same entity as he would be at a rock-hard 145, but he’s also facing a guy who has dropped three of five and whose conditioning hasn’t always been a strong suit.
It won’t be a blowout, but it won’t last too long either. McGregor by late first-round KO.
Kalland prediction: I can't go against McGregor in this spot. He's arguably the best fighter in the company and has dominated since moving to the UFC. Motivation will not be an issue like it often is for a replacement opponent as he wanted Diaz in this fight and I think the jump in weight class will end up being a wash for both fighters. So long as McGregor can keep this fight standing up, he'll walk out the victor with a second-round KO.
| Holm-Tate Tale of the Tape | ||
| Category | Holly Holm | Miesha Tate |
| Record | 10-0, 7 KO/Sub | 17-5, 9 KO/Sub |
| Height | 5-foot-8 | 5-foot-6 |
| Reach | 69" | 65" |
| Leg Reach | 38" | 37" |
| Weight | 135 | 135 |
| Age | 34 | 29 |
| Hometown | Albuquerque, New Mexico | Tacoma, Washington |
How Holm wins: Given what happened to Rousey -- and the appreciation for Holm that followed -- it’s not difficult to forecast a repeat. The bottom line remains, Holm is a premier striker and can defeat an awful lot of would-be high-end opponents with her fists and feet. In fact, that’ll continue to be her winning recipe until someone can get her off her feet and put her in situations where she’s not comfortable. If Tate doesn’t do that, it’ll be an unsuccessful night for her -- long or short.
How Tate wins: The challenger needs to do what every other one of Holm’s UFC foes has failed to do -- get her to the ground. Whether it’s from long range or from in close, the mandate remains the same. To do that, though, she’ll need to be effective enough with her strikes to make Holm consider defense, and open up some space. It’s a difficult game to play with a decorated boxer who has made the MMA transition, but if Tate is rugged enough to take some shots, she could cut the reign short.
Fitzsimmons prediction: A lot of people compared Holm’s upset of Rousey to Mike Tyson’s shocking dethroning at the hands of Buster Douglas. Douglas enjoyed his stardom, lived the high life and was quickly beaten in his next fight -- before a lucrative rematch with Tyson could ever be signed. Don’t expect Holm to fall into the same trap. She’s worked very hard to maintain her pre-championship mindset, and she’s still got the dynamic game with fists and kicks that Rousey couldn’t handle. Tate won’t either.
Holm controls each round with a superior skill set. Holm by unanimous decision.
Kalland prediction: The last three times Tate has taken on the best in the bantamweight division, she's lost (twice to Rousey, once to Zingano). Holm showed her class against Rousey and ability to control the pace and style of a fight. Holm will keep this fight where she wants it -- a striking battle -- and end this in the second with a KO/TKO, the same way she did against Rousey.
