The expression "trusting the hot hand" is one that transcends sports. Whether it's a backup quarterback overtaking a starting position, a normally suspect shooter that just can't miss being fed or a pitcher that has been doing exceptionally well over the course of the past two months, there's weird sports voodoo at play that is difficult to explain.

Terry Francona is, quite possibly, the smartest managerial mind in baseball. He's calculated and he's clever, and he's made the Cleveland Indians into a veritable powerhouse since he signed on in 2012. With that in mind, it makes his decision to start Trevor Bauer in Game 1 (how to watch) against the New York Yankees on Thursday even more confusing, since it seems so far outside of the realm of "the norm." Corey Kluber was the best pitcher in the AL by miles in 2017, if he doesn't win a Cy Young it would be a giant snub, so why not take the apparent 1-0 series lead?

Simply put, Bauer is the hot hand. In August and September, Bauer went 8-1 with a 2.57 ERA. Contrast that with his numbers earlier in the season, and he has made huge strides in 2017. Bauer started the year 9-8, and his total ERA came out to 4.19 for the season. However, both of Bauer's starts against the Yankees came in August. On Aug. 4 seven innings and gave up one run, while on Aug. 30 he gave up one run in six innings. All things told, Bauer went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA against the Yankees in the regular season.

There's also an air of perceived invincibility from Francona with this move. Francona may not be expecting a five game series, but he now has Kluber and Carlos Carrasco ready to take on a vaunted Yankees lineup (which showed how dangerous it can be in the Wild Card game against the Twins) even if Bauer does get pegged early. The other thing that the Yankees did in the Wild Card game? They burned through their bullpen. With Luis Severino getting just one out, the Yankees needed 8.2 innings out of their bullpen. Chad Green, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle all saw significant innings just two days ago, with Robertson going longer than he has in his career. Should Sonny Gray -- who hasn't been at his best this season -- get into trouble early, the Yankees may have to turn to Dellin Betances, who has fallen out of the good graces of Joe Girardi with a rough September (5.59 ERA, seven walks, 15 strikeouts).

All of that aside, Francona is playing the long game with this move. No team expects a five-game series, but good managers prepare for them. On the season, Yankee hitting is .155 against Kluber. You want to have that in a clinching game. Yankee hitters are .237 against Bauer, which may have gotten him the edge over Carrasco, against whom they're batting .269. Furthermore, the Yankees feast on fastball pitchers, making Carrasco a more difficult sell. Carrasco threw 48.4 percent fastballs in 2017, versus Bauer's 38.7 percent fastball rate (per Fangraphs). Bauer's repertoire is also more varied, as Carrasco is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher. Bauer's 29.1 percent change-up rate allows the Indians to get more creative pitch sequences against a Yankee lineup that needs to be kept off-balance.

There's a legitimate chance that this move is an example getting too cute, but the flip side is that it displays confidence in a 26-year-old pitcher that has gotten significantly better as the season has worn on. Although Bauer may not seem like the obvious choice, if he wins tonight that gives the Indians a huge advantage moving forward in the series. The reason that the first-seed is so coveted (and why the Wild Card is so difficult) is that it allows managers to make unorthodox tinkering decisions. The Indians have the bullpen depth to survive if Bauer does struggle early, but if the Gray has trouble early on it will be nigh on impossible for the Yankees to recover. It all comes down to October being a marathon -- and Francona is familiar with the training regimen.