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The San Diego Padres hold a 1-0 series lead in their 2022 NL Wild Card Series matchup with the New York Mets after a dominant 7-1 victory on Friday night. The Padres hit four home runs and tagged Max Scherzer for seven earned runs, but now they'll run into another former Cy Young winner with the Mets sending Jacob deGrom to the bump. San Diego will counter with Blake Snell and he's actually been the better of the two pitchers over the last month. Snell has given up two earned runs while striking out 32 over 25 innings in his last four starts while deGrom has a 6.00 ERA in that same span.

However, deGrom still has arguably the best stuff in baseball and he'll relish the chance to put the Mets on his back to even the series. First pitch at Citi Field is set for 7:37 p.m. ET. New York is listed as a -178 favorite (risk $178 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total runs scored is 5.5. Before making any Padres vs. Mets picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it entered the final week of the regular season on an 18-8 run on top-rated money-line MLB picks, returning almost $700 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Padres, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Padres vs. Mets:

  • Mets vs. Padres money line: New York -178, San Diego +150
  • Mets vs. Padres over/under: 5.5 runs 
  • Mets vs. Padres run line: New York -1.5 (+143)
  • NYM: The Over is 6-1 in New York's last seven home games
  • SD: San Diego is 6-1 in its last seven road games
  • Mets vs. Padres picks: See picks here

Why you should back the Mets

New York posted one of the best home records in the major leagues this season at 54-27 after winning eight of its final nine games at Citi Field but lost two of three when San Diego visited in July. And after Friday's loss with Scherzer on the bump, deGrom will need to erase the taste of arguably the worst month of his career.

The two-time NL Cy Young winner has a 1.28 career ERA in 10 career starts against the Padres and the current San Diego roster has a career OPS of .570 against him. Eduardo Escobar had four multi-hit games in his last eight regular-season contests and he went 2-for-3 with a home run and a double on Friday off Yu Darvish. The 33-year-old switch-hitter had an .817 OPS and hit nine of his 20 home runs against left-handed pitching this season.

Why you should back the Padres

San Diego went 4-2 and had a +13 run differential in six regular-season games against the Mets and then scored the 7-1 victory in Game 1. So the Padres should have a lot of confidence with a chance to close out the series in Game 2. Manny Machado made a late push to put himself back into the 2022 NL MVP conversation by posting a .930 OPS over the final two months of the season and he continued his impressive play on Friday.

Machado knocked Scherzer out of the game with a fifth-inning home run in the win. Josh Bell, Trent Grisham and Jurickson Profar also hit home runs and the Padres have now hit 10 home runs in their last six games overall. San Diego has averaged 6.2 runs per game against the Mets now this season and with deGrom giving up 14 earned runs over his last 20 innings, they'll be eager to get on the two-time NL Cy Young winner early.

How to make Mets vs. Padres picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 7.7 total runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Padres? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Padres vs. Mets you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.