Astros vs. Nationals World Series: Five big questions heading into a crucial Game 5
The World Series is now a best-of-three series
The 2019 World Series continues on Sunday night with Game 5 at Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, but the Houston Astros have rallied to even the series 2-2. The Astros are only the third team to win Games 3 and 4 of the World Series on the road after losing Games 1 and 2 at home, joining the 1986 Mets and 1996 Yankees.
The World Series is now a best-of-three series and the Astros have reclaimed home-field advantage. No matter what happens in Game 5, there will be a Game 6 in Minute Maid Park. Before we address five important questions for Game 5, here are the essentials:
When: Sunday, Oct. 27 | Time: 8:07 p.m. ET
Venue: Nationals Park (Washington DC)
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Starting pitchers: Max Scherzer (WAS) vs. Gerrit Cole (HOU)
Odds: WAS: +139 | HOU: -149 | O/U: 7
1. Can Cole get back into strikeout mode?
It sounds silly when we're talking about a guy who had 326 strikeouts during the regular season and struck out 39.9 percent of the batters faced, a new MLB record for a qualified pitcher, but Cole's strikeout rate has been trending down in October. The start-by-start numbers:
| Innings Pitched and Strikeouts | Strikeout Rate | Swing & Miss Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
ALDS Game 2 vs. Rays | 7 2/3 IP and 15 K | 55.6% | 24.6% |
ALDS Game 5 vs. Rays | 8 IP and 10 K | 37.0% | 15.0% |
ALCS Game 3 vs. Yankees | 7 IP and 7 K | 23.3% | 10.7% |
World Series Game 1 vs. Nationals | 7 IP and 6 K | 20.7% | 9.6% |
Cole's swing and miss rate during the regular season was 16.8 percent, the highest in baseball and well above the 11.2 percent league average. The strikeouts have been trending down each time out in the postseason though, and it's worth noting Cole has already thrown 242 innings in 2019, far and away a career high. Could fatigue be setting in?
Furthermore, Cole will face the Nationals for the second time in Game 5 on Sunday. Washington's offense had the fourth lowest strikeout rate during the regular season (20.9 percent, including 19.8 percent among non-pitchers), and each time an offense gets a look at a pitcher, the more the pendulum swings in its direction. The familiarity helps.
"There are always challenges that are involved in that," Cole said Saturday when asked about facing the Nationals for the second time in a week. "This being the largest stage that we can get on, certainly with the opponent being so well prepared, anticipate having to respond to some things tomorrow and hopefully we respond well."
Cole does not necessarily need to rack up a big strikeout total to win Game 5 -- the Astros won six of his seven lowest strikeout totals during the regular season -- but the strikeouts do help. Fewer balls in play equals fewer opportunities for hits to fall in and runs to be scored.
2. Can the Nationals get their offense going?
It was only Wednesday that the Nationals dropped 12 runs on the Astros in Game 2, yet it feels like a lifetime ago. Washington scored one run in Game 3 and one run in Game 4, going a combined 1 for 19 with runners in scoring position in the two games, and the one hit was an infield single that didn't even score a run.
Juan Soto went 3 for 4 with a double and an impressive opposite field home run in Game 1. He is 1 for 10 since, and with the bases loaded and one out in the sixth inning in Game 4, Soto hit a tapper to first base to get a run home. The Nationals needed more from their cleanup hitter in that spot down four runs. That's just how things have been going for their offense.
Trea Turner is 3 for 18 (.167) in the series with a .250 on-base percentage. Anthony Rendon had two hits in Game 4 yet is only 4 for 17 (.235) in the World Series. NLCS MVP Howie Kendrick is 3 for 14 (.214). To win the World Series, you need your best players to be your best players, and Turner, Rendon, Soto, and Kendrick are a combined 14 for 63 (.222) in the series. Not good enough.
The Astros are an excellent run prevention team -- they allowed 3.95 runs per game during the regular season, lowest in the American League -- and they deserve credit for keeping a very good Nationals offense in check. Tipping your cap is no way to win the World Series though. The Nationals need their offense -- and their best players -- to break out in Game 5.
3. Will we see Doolittle and Hudson?
We should. Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson have not pitched since Game 1. The Nationals won Game 2 in a blowout, so they weren't needed, but in Game 4 manager Dave Martinez let the Astros pull away against Tanner Rainey and Fernando Rodney. They couldn't keep the game close and give the offense a chance to get back into it.
"For me, you don't chase wins," Martinez said after Game 4. "Come tomorrow we're up 2-0, and all of a sudden we're in the seventh inning, you have to use Hudson for two innings, you have to use Doolittle for two innings. You want those guys ready to pitch. I know we got a day off the next day."
Not a great answer! Martinez admitted he was holding Doolittle and Hudson back in case they're needed in Game 5. In October, the most important game is the game you're playing. After Soto got a run home in the sixth, Doolittle and Hudson could've helped keep the game close, and that might have changed everything. Instead, Rainey and Rodney let it get out of hand, and the series is tied.
Monday is an off-day and I suspect we'll see Doolittle and Hudson in Game 5 no matter the score, possibly for multiple innings apiece. Game 5 feels like a must-win for the Nationals. They don't want to go back to Houston having to win two games. If there's no lead to protect in Game 5 though, Martinez being so conservative with his top relievers in Game 4 will look even worse.
4. Does Alvarez get into the lineup?
Because there is no designated hitter in the National League, Astros rookie masher Yordan Alvarez was not in the starting lineup in Game 3 or Game 4. He pinch-hit in both games and is 3 for 8 (.375) with two walks (.500 on-base percentage) in the World Series after going 1 for 22 (.045) in the ALCS. Manager A.J. Hinch stuck with Alvarez because he believes in him, and has been rewarded.
George Springer and Michael Brantley aren't coming out of the lineup, so Hinch started Josh Reddick over Alvarez in Game 3 and Jake Marisnick over Alvarez in Game 4, and hey, it worked out. Reddick went 1 for 4 with a run driven in and Marisnick went 2 for 4, and the Astros won both games. Alvarez is a poor defender and the Astros didn't miss his bat in Games 3 and 4.
"This is a really big left field, and I'm taking into consideration that. So we've talked about it a little bit. I can probably talk myself in and out of every scenario," Hinch said during Thursday's workout. "I don't think we play all three games here without him seeing the outfield. I'm not sure that will be (Game 4). Right now I'm kind of leaning against it. But I'll make that decision when I have to."
If the Astros were going to play Alvarez in left field at some point this series, Game 5 is the game to do. Cole's strikeout ability makes him much more likely to limit balls in play than Game 3 starter Zack Greinke and Game 4 starter Jose Urquidy, and more strikeouts equal fewer defensive chances for everyone, especially Alvarez. This would be the game to start him.
5. What's at stake in Game 5?
Historically, teams with a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win the series 70 percent of the time, which is less than I would've guessed, honestly. Also, only 46 percent of the time has the team with a 3-2 series lead gone on to win Game 6. That's a reminder that while Game 5 is incredibly important, the work doesn't end there.
















