Baseball Hall of Fame: Derek Jeter will headline the 2020 class; who else could get in?
Jeter will try to match Mariano Rivera's unanimous selection
The dust has settled and we gained four new Hall of Famers on Tuesday night. Next winter, we'll again go through the process of dissecting the Hall of Fame candidacy of more than a dozen former players up for induction. When we do, here's a look at the most prominent players on the ballot.
At the top is a first-timer sure to glide in the with ease of his long-time teammate Mariano Rivera: Derek Jeter.
Jeter is an open-and-shut case. He's a career .310/.377/.440 hitter with 3,465 hits, 544 doubles, 260 homers, 1,923 runs, 1,311 RBI and 358 steals. He's a 14-time All-Star, five-time World Series champion and hit .308/.374/.465 with 200 hits, 32 doubles, five triples, 20 homers and 18 steals in 158 career playoff games. We don't really need to go on. Hell, we didn't even need to say all that. He's a Hall of Famer and he'll rightfully go in very easily.
Among the first-timers next year, Jeter is likely alone as a Hall of Famer. Bobby Abreu, Paul Konerko and Cliff Lee will grab a few votes, but none of them have the old-school credentials and only Abreu has a shot to grab the new-school crowd (he's still 20th among right fielders in JAWS, which is below average).
Some other first-timers worth mentioning: Jason Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, Josh Beckett, Rafael Furcal, Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Eric Chavez, J.J. Putz and Heath Bell.
There are certainly some names in there, but it's hard to see anyone outside of Abreu and maybe Konerko and/or Lee getting close to 5 percent of the vote to stay on the ballot.
What that means with five names coming off the ballot -- Fred McGriff didn't make it, but his 10 years are up -- and only really Jeter coming on is that there are now lots of extra open spots on the ballot. Remember, voters can vote a maximum of 10 players, and many vote for 10. With spots open, the following players have a chance to move up the ranks and get the call in 2020 or 2021.
Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds are tied together for obvious reasons and they are gaining ground as the ballot clears and the voting body continues to become younger and more new-school. The gained ground in 2019 was only marginal, however; neither made 60 percent (Clemens rose from 57.3 percent to 59.5 while Bonds went from 56.4 to 59.1). Maybe the cleared spots will help them make a bigger jump.
Curt Schilling's past three votes have been 45.1 percent, 51.2 percent and now 60.9 percent. He's on an upward trend that bodes well for getting in during his final three years on the ballot.
Larry Walker faces a stiff, uphill battle to gain enshrinement via the BBWAA vote. He has gained a lot of steam since his low output of 10.2 percent in 2014, but he's still only at 54.6 percent with one year left on the ballot. Under the old format where a player was on the ballot for 15 years, he would be on a more promising path, especially with the lightweight classes to come (more on that below), but as it stands, he's going to need a 20-plus percent jump. The good news for Walker? He jumped 20.5 percent from last year to this year.
My hunch is we get Jeter and Schilling next year with Walker having a shot before Bonds and Clemens make it in 2021. Why?
I mentioned the ballot clearing so let's note that on the 2021 ballot, the top first-timers are Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle. Very good players for a long time, yes, but they aren't Hall of Famers. The ballot has been cleared out by now. This means the path is easier for the aforementioned players. It also means it's worth watching what happens then with the following players in the next two votes.
Omar Vizquel got 37 percent in his first vote and this time around got 42.8. With the noted clearing happening, he seems on a decent path to make it, even if it takes eight, nine or 10 tries -- though we have seen players hit a wall.
Unlike Bonds and Clemens, Manny Ramirez actually has two failed tests with suspensions hanging over his candidacy. In matters I believe to be related, his voting percentage is stagnant: 23.8, 22, 22.8. He's not going to gain steam, I predict, but it's possible he does.
Todd Helton got 16.5 percent in his first try. He'll obviously need lots of momentum, but that's enough with spots coming off the ballot that I think he has hope. Andy Pettitte got 9.9 percent in his first try and that feels low, but he could gain steam.
Scott Rolen has hope, too, I think. He's a darling of the new-school stat group and rose from 10.2 percent to 17.2 percent in 2019.
Andruw Jones gained from 7.3 to 7.5, but I feel like he'll benefit from the ballot clearing and will start picking up votes next year. I'll predict he passes Manny Ramirez in percentage before either fall off.
Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner and Sammy Sosa also remain on the ballot but have been stagnant enough that we can safely assume they won't be making it, at least not via the BBWAA vote.
The 2022 ballot will bring us Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz with Carlos Beltran coming on for 2023. Otherwise we're discussing the likes of Mark Teixeira and Jimmy Rollins.
To me, that's the biggest takeaway of these past few years with a big influx of new Hall of Famers. The ballot was once far too crowded but now it's working itself out and coming back to where it's workable. The bolded names above should benefit from that.
















