Cincinnati Reds 2018 season preview: Sleeper potential as rebuild comes together
The Reds have some very interesting pieces here as their rebuild starts to take shape
By
Matt Snyder
•
7 min read
After making the playoffs three out of their previous four seasons, the 2014 Cincinnati Reds went 76-86. Since then, they've finished last place in the NL Central three straight seasons and haven't topped 68 wins during their rebuild.
Last season, the Reds were middle of the pack in the NL in most offensive categories, but ranked dead last in pitching with a 5.17 ERA. They allowed the most walks and home runs and that, obviously, is bad for business.
There's potential here for things to be looking up in 2018. Every season, we get a few surprise contenders and though I don't think it's likely, it's at least mildly conceivable that the Reds become one of those teams this time around. Let's check them out.
2017 record: 68-94 (negative-116 run differential)
2018 depth chart: Click here
2018 schedule: Click here
Probable lineup
- Billy Hamilton, CF
- Jesse Winker / Adam Duvall, LF
- Joey Votto, 1B
- Eugenio Suarez, 3B
- Scooter Gennett, 2B
- Jose Peraza, SS
- Scott Schebler, RF
- Tucker Barnhart, C
Bench: Whoever isn't starting in LF platoon; Devin Mesoraco, C; Cliff Pennington, IF; Phillip Ervin, OF
Probable rotation
- Luis Castillo, RHP
- Anthony Desclafani, RHP
- Brandon Finnegan, LHP
- Homer Bailey, RHP
- Robert Stephenson, RHP
Lots of others are in the mix for a chance, such as Sal Romano, Tyler Mahle, Cody Reed and Vance Worley.
Probable bullpen
Closer: Raisel Iglesias, RHP
Setup: Michael Lorenzen, RHP; David Hernandez, RHP
Middle: Wandy Peralta, LHP; Jared Hughes, RHP; Amir Garrett, LHP; Kevin Shackelford, RHP
Long: Austin Brice, RHP
Rotation upside
DeSclafani missed all of last season with an elbow injury, but he's recovered and he was very good in 2016, so there's already a plus to the rotation. Luis Castillo had an excellent rookie season, but it was only 15 starts. He'll be a full-timer this year.
Off to a good start with that top two. Both will pitch like frontline starters this year, in all likelihood.
Stephenson moved to the rotation in the middle of August and went 5-2 with a 2.74 ERA in eight starts to close the season. Perhaps he builds on that and has a successful season.
Finnegan missed most of last season, but he has a 3.99 ERA (107 ERA+) in the last two seasons combined. So far, so good in spring training, too.
Things are already looking up for the team with an atrocious rotation ERA last season, right?
Bailey has been either injured or bad since 2013, but he's still only 31 years old and it's possible he puts his struggles in the rearview and pitches something like a league-average pitcher. Really, he wasn't too bad down the stretch (3.58 ERA in last seven starts) and finished with seven shutout innings in his season finale.
Past that, Mahle was very good in his four starts (2.70 ERA) and Romano showed flashes of being acceptable in a big-league rotation.
Simply, there's enough here to believe the Reds pull a 180 in the rotation this year.
Of course ...
Rotation downside
Can we really count on Bailey? DeSclafani and Finnegan have to be considered health risks with potential to go down at any time.
And then there's how fickle young and inexperienced pitchers can be. It looks like Castillo will be awesome, but we can't be positive. Are Stephenson, Romano and/or Mahle sure bets? Of course not.
As noted, it's possible the Reds have an average or even good rotation this year. It's also possible that it's a disaster again. Anywhere on the board -- aside from elite -- seems possible.
That's why the Reds are predicted to finish fourth or last but have the potential to be a sleeper contender.
How long will Hamilton remain at the top?
Hamilton is fast and plays center field, so it's natural old-school baseball minds want to hit him leadoff, but he has a career .298 on-base percentage and that's just atrocious.
Last year, Hamilton hit .247 with a .299 OBP. He struck out 144 times and walked 44 times. That's not the profile of anyone who should be even close to leading off. He did steal 59 bases and score 85 runs despite getting on base only 192 times, though.
Hamilton is obviously a very good baserunner, but he's a terrible fit at leadoff to this point. If he can turn things around and get to something like a .335 OBP, manager Bryan Price would be justified to leave him there.
Man, if that actually happened, the offense would take things to the next level. I'm just not seeing it. He's had over 2,100 career plate appearances. He is what he's shown himself to be: a poor hitter.
Price didn't move Hamilton out of the leadoff spot last year. If we see the same Hamilton this year and Price keeps him at the top -- giving the most plate appearances on a regular basis to one of the worst hitters -- it's malpractice and hurts the team's chances for contention.
Bridge to Iglesias
Iglesias is an excellent closer, so the Reds' leads come the ninth will generally be safe (and he can go further than one inning if need be on occasion, too). In front of him, there are questions.
Lorenzen has very good stuff and looks the part of a stud setup man, but he was very inconsistent last season, taking a step back from how well he performed in 2016. It's possible he settles in, but we haven't seen it for a full season just yet.
Hernandez has at times been an excellent setup man and is coming off a good season (3.11 ERA, 143 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP with 52 strikeouts against nine walks in 55 innings). He's working with a surgically-repaired throwing arm and has been inconsistent at times, but the talent is there.
So, like the rotation, the setup corps has questions and variance.
The rest of the bullpen is littered with questions as well.
Waiting on Senzel
In 2016, the Reds took Nick Senzel with the second overall pick in the draft out of the University of Tennessee. He's 22 years old this season and finished last year at Double-A. In all last season between high Class-A (62 games) and Double-A (57 games), Senzel hit .321/.391/.514 with 40 doubles, three triples, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 81 runs and 14 stolen bases. He's an incredible all-around player.
He's a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball and could immediately make a big-time impact.
But when?
Senzel has played just 57 games in Double-A and none beyond that. He's gotta get some Triple-A seasoning and play well there. Odds are it happens quickly and he forces a call up this year.
When Senzel does come up, he'll need third base cleared for him. Perhaps Suarez moves to second and platoons with Gennett (defensively, Peraza needs to stay at short)? Check out their splits from last year and imagine this was a platoon:
Suarez vs. LHP: .276/.392/.504
Gennett vs. RHP: .310/.359/.571
Hoo boy. That's a player.
Team that with Senzel, a better version of Hamilton and some other quality bats and we're talking sneaky contender.
Joey Freaking Votto
Votto played all 162 games last season, hitting .320/.454/.578 with 34 doubles, 36 homers, 100 RBI, 106 runs and he even stole five bases. He led the league in OBP, OPS and intentional walks and plays good defense at first base.
If a team is going to turn things around into a contender, a centerpiece like Votto is essential along with young, elite talents like Castillo and Senzel. The veteran leader, Votto has been on three playoff teams, too.
(Also, he's pretty damn funny.)
Big turnaround?
I had the Reds 23rd in my pre-preseason power rankings and I'm likely to pick them to finish last in the Central this year (if not last, fourth). The smart pick says the Reds make some progress this season, but don't actually contend into, say, June. The reality is that the Cubs are way better while the Cardinals and Brewers are both likely to be a decent amount better.
There's reason for Reds fans to be optimistic, though. This season at worst provides more clarity, such as finding out who the keepers are in the rotation and the solidification of the bullpen -- not to mention how they insert Senzel into the order and configure the defense upon his arrival.
When the dust settles, perhaps the biggest issue the Reds have heading into 2019: Are they going to contend before Votto (who turns 35 in September) starts to erode?
From a Reds' fans perspective, though, they'd probably just as well see the Reds contend this year. Even if people like me say it's unlikely, it's certainly possible. There's enough here to believe. Hope is a good thing, Reds fans, maybe the best of things (and the guy who Andy said that to was named "Red!"). Embrace hope with this group.
