Everything you need to know about MLB postseason scenarios going into final week
Let's take a look at what's on tap in Major League Baseball's final week
By
Matt Snyder
•
3 min read
Seven days.
That's all that remains in the 2016 Major League Baseball regular season. Thus far, we've seen 12 teams officially eliminated from postseason contention while four have clinched their divisions and one more has clinched a playoff berth. That means there's still some jockeying to be done before we're settled on our postseason bracket. We might not even know it one week from now (fingers crossed!). Let's take a glance around the league at the storylines and matchups to enjoy this week.
The Divisions are done
The Red Sox enter the week with a playoff spot clinched and a magic number of two in the AL East. The Indians have a magic number of one in the AL Central, which means they are guaranteed at least a tie. Every other division has already been clinched.
If the Red Sox go 0-6 this week, the Blue Jays would need to go 7-0 in order to win the division outright.
So, yes, we're calling them. All six divisions have already been decided.
NL wild card
This could be madness, of course.
The Marlins and Pirates are still hanging on the periphery, but it's mostly just not being mathematically eliminated. It would take a baseball miracle for either to make it in.
Instead, this war of attrition between the Mets, Giants and Cardinals could go down to the last day of the season.
Though the Mets are coming off a 3-4 week, they're in the best shape here. They are up one game on the Giants and 1 1/2 on the Cardinals. They close with six on the road, sure, but it's three against the Marlins (who obviously have a lot on their mind right now other than baseball) and the Phillies, who just lost three of four to the Mets.
The Giants have that half-game lead over the Cardinals for the last spot. They've alternated wins and losses over their last six games, but overall have gone 5-9 since a modest three-game winning streak earlier this month. They have only won one series in September and have gone 25-41 since the All-Star break. This week, the Giants have six home games, three against the Rockies and three against the Dodgers. The Dodgers might not have anything to play for, so that's something to watch.
The Cardinals followed a four-game winning streak by losing three of their last four, including a series loss to the Cubs. They return home for a seven-game homestand, but they are 33-41 at home this season. Getting four games against the Reds should help, but the Cardinals are only 8-7 against the Reds this year. They then close with three against the Pirates.
How to handicap this thing? SportsLine gives the Mets a 94.6 percent chance of making it, with the Cardinals at 74.3 and the Giants at 30.8.
AL wild card
So this could get a little complicated, which is always fun.
First off, the Blue Jays seem fine. They are up 1 1/2 games on the Orioles for the top wild-card spot, which is also three games into the playoffs. SportsLine has them with a 98.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The Orioles are at 75.9 percent, leading the Tigers by 1 1/2 games and the Mariners by 2 1/2. It won't be easy, though. The O's are 35-40 away from home and face a six-game road trip against the Jays and Yankees. A bad week leaves the door open, so they can't afford that.
The Tigers could be the beneficiary of a bad Orioles week, but they don't exactly have it easy. The Indians haven't yet officially clinched the AL Central and the Tigers have them for four games starting on Monday. The Tigers are 2-13 against the Indians this year. The Tigers then close with three games against the Braves, which sounds easy, but it's really not. The Braves are 13-9 this month and their loss on Saturday broke a seven-game winning streak.
So could the door swing open for the Mariners or Astros? Seattle is 2 1/2 back while Houston is three back. They face each other for three games starting Monday night in Houston. I'd say if either wants to have a real shot here, it's gotta be a sweep. The Mariners close with four home games against the A's while the Astros close with three against the Angels in "L.A."
The Yankees and Royals haven't technically hit their elimination numbers, but with the head to head action going on above them -- someone has to win those games -- that means they are both essentially already done.
Got all that? Good! Let's strap it on for a hopefully exciting week. And then the real fun begins.
