First-place Twins have the easiest remaining schedule in baseball and it could decide the AL Central race
Minnesota will play the rest of its campaign against teams that combine for a 70-win pace
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2 min read
Although the regular season has a month-and-a-half to go, there's only one American League division race that remains in doubt -- that being the American League Central, where the Minnesota Twins hold a 2 1/2-game lead over Cleveland entering the week. (The East and West leaders are each up at least 7 1/2 games on their closest competitor.) The Twins will have a chance to add to their lead in the coming days, as they'll be playing the Chicago White Sox while Cleveland takes on a red-hot New York Mets team.
That scenario -- the Twins playing relative cupcakes compared to the teams Cleveland is facing -- is going to feel commonplace by the time the season is over. With no disrespect intended toward the Twins -- who had no say in their schedule and who would be worthy division champions -- the schedule may prove to be a deciding factor in the Central.
Consider that the average record of the Twins' remaining opponents equates to 43.1 winning percentage -- or a 70-win team over a full slate. That is the easiest schedule left in the majors, according to Baseball-Reference's figures. Cleveland, for its part, isn't about to embark on a grueling 39-game stretch, either. Its average opponent has won 48 percent of its games -- a 78-win pace over a full 162.
| Team | Games left | At home | Vs. contenders |
|---|---|---|---|
Twins | 38 | 19 | 12 |
Cleveland | 37 | 16 | 18 |
To put it another way, Cleveland will play four more series against non-Twins teams who could conceivably make the postseason -- the Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals. Comparatively, the Twins will play two more series against non-Cleveland teams who could conceivably make the postseason -- those coming against the Boston Red Sox and Nationals. What's more is that nine of those 12 games for Cleveland will take place on the road. Minnesota, meanwhile, will play three at home and three on the road.
If there is a wild card in the AL Central race, it's the potential for Cleveland to make up time in its six remaining head-to-head games with the Twins. Obviously it's just as possible that Cleveland cedes ground, or walks away from those six games with an even 3-3 record. Thus far on the season, Cleveland has a 7-6 record against Minnesota.
Again, we're not taking anything away from the Twins by observing these figures. We're just noting that the schedule should be an important consideration this time of the year -- especially in tight races. And the schedule, at least on paper, favors the Twins winning the division.
