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After 10 games, the St. Louis Cardinals probably stand out as the most disappointing team of the 2023 season thus far. Going into the second game of their road series against the Rockies on Tuesday night, Oli Marmol's club is 3-7 and in last place in the National League Central – behind, yes, even the Pirates and Reds. Across all of MLB, just the lowly Tigers and A's have worse records at this writing. 

While that's a minuscule sliver of the 162-game regular season, it's still a bit of a jarring start for a Cardinals team that won 93 games and the division title a season ago and added Willson Contreras' big bat over the winter. So as the Cardinals look to reverse their 2023 fortunes to date and get back to meeting expectations, let's check off some quick things to know about St. Louis' dismaying start to the season.

1. It's their worst start to a season in some time

The Cardinals have been perennial contenders in the current era, and as such they haven't endured too many starts like this one. Their 3-7 record through the first 10 games of the season is their worst such stretch since 2017, when they also stood at 3-7 at this juncture (they actually started off 3-9 before notching that fourth win of the season). That year, St. Louis wound up with a record of 83-79 and missed the playoffs. Of note is that the club hasn't endured a losing season since 2007, and they've made four straight postseasons.  

2. The rotation has been a big problem

The decision of ownership and the front office to leave the rotation unaddressed this past offseason remains a puzzling one. The on-paper crop of starters was a concerning mix of injury risks and age, and Adam Wainwright's spring health issues have already tested their depth (or lack thereof). Indeed, the rotation has struggled badly thus far. Right now, St. Louis ranks 26th in MLB with a rotation ERA of 5.96 and 21st in rotation K/BB ratio. As a unit, they've notched only one quality start so far, and they've averaged the fourth-most pitches per inning of any rotation. Related to that last point is that Cardinal starters this season have issued 24 unintentional walks in 51 1/3 innings (an MLB-leading 13 of those walks belong to Jack Flaherty). 

As bad as the rotation has been and as concerning as the rickety nature of it is moving forward, it's not going to remain this dismal across a more meaningful sample. One possible sign of better days for Cardinals starters is that the rotation's FIP, or Fielding-Independent Pitching – a measure of what a pitcher's or pitchers' ERA might look like once defense and luck are neutralized – is a much more palatable 3.64. The rotation as currently assembled probably won't be a pronounced strength, but it's likely to see better days. 

3. Situational hitting has been lacking

The Cardinals have what should be one of the NL's best offenses. Yes, Albert Pujols has retired, which wipes his stunningly productive final season from the ledger, but Contreras upgrades the catcher position, which on offense was a terrible problem for the Cardinals last season. On one level, St. Louis bats have performed as expected, as they're presently tied for seventh in MLB when it comes to OPS. However, at the same time they rank just 24th in runs scored per game.  

When you see a divide like that, poor production in RBI situations is typically to blame. In the Cardinals' case, their overall team OPS of .768 stands in sharp contrast to their team OPS of .621 with runners in scoring position. Worse still, the Cardinals so far this season are 0 for 8 in bases-loaded situations with four strikeouts and as many double plays (one) as RBI (still one). The good news for the Cardinals and their rooters is that this is an aberration. Teams over the larger sample tend to hit about what you'd expect in all situations. The Cardinals' failure to hit in run-scoring situations isn't because the likes of Paul Goldshmidt and Nolan Arenado suddenly became hothouse flowers in clutch situations. Rather, it's because there's a great deal of noise in almost all numbers this early in a season, particularly in narrowly defined splits like production with RISP and so forth. 

4. The schedule has been tough so far

Of the Cardinals' 10 games thus far, six have come against 2022 playoff teams that profile as among the best teams in the game in 2023 (the Blue Jays and Braves). Three more came against the Brewers in MIlwaukee, and they figure to be the Cardinals' stiffest competition in the NL Central (feel free to reframe this as "the Cardinals figure to be the Brewers' stiffest competition in the NL Central," if you wish).  St. Louis went 3-6 in those games. Obviously, you can't play .333 ball against good teams if you wish to achieve anything, but let the record show that the Cardinals last season had a losing record (34-38) against winning and .500 teams en route to clocking those 93 wins. Beating good teams is hard, and St. Louis has been acutely reminded of that fact so far in 2023. 

5. Jordan Walker remains the silver lining

For St. Louis, the consoling knowledge is that amid all the losing 20-year-old rookie phenom Jordan Walker has thrived thus far despite skipping over Triple-A entirely and being the youngest player in the majors right now. He forced his way onto the active roster with a strong spring and a measured demeanor that belied his age, and the Cardinals have been better for it. In addition to getting a hit in every game so far, Walker is slashing .324/.390/.553 with two homers, near-elite speed, and deeply impressive exit-velocity numbers. That latter achievement bodes very well for the future – near, mid-, and long-term. He's looking like a lineup fulcrum for years to come and an All-Star perhaps as early as this season. 

Struggles aside, it's too early in the season to revise what we thought about St. Louis coming in. They're still probably the favorites in the division, and they figure to find that level in the days and weeks to come. That said, the partial unbalancing of the MLB schedule will put some downward pressure on that 93-win baseline, and the St. Louis rotation still has collapse potential. As well, it's entirely possible that the Brewers are better than anticipated and that the Cardinals must contend with stiffer intra-divisional competition. Yes, the Cardinals are very likely in for better days ahead, but how much better is the heart of the matter in the NL Central.