So why isn’t Jeff Bagwell in the Hall of Fame yet? (Getty)
So why isn’t Jeff Bagwell in the Hall of Fame yet? (Getty)

For the next several days, we at Eye On Baseball will be breaking down the cases of each candidate on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for 2015. We'll present the pros and cons of each player as they relate to existing Hall of Fame standards and then wager a guess as to whether or not the candidate in question makes it in this time around by earning the necessary 75 percent of votes. Up now is Jeff Bagwell ...

Connecticut native Jeff Bagwell was of course originally a draftee (fourth round, 1989) and farmhand of New England's own Red Sox. However, in late August of 1990, the Sox sent Bagwell, coming off a strong season at the Double-A level, to the Astros in exchange for reliever Larry Andersen. Suffice it to say, the Red Sox would very much regret this trade. 

Across parts of 15 big-league seasons in Houston, Bagwell batted .297/.408/.540 with 449 home runs; 488 doubles; 2,314 hits; 1,529 RBI; 1,517 runs; 1,401 walks and, lest we forget, 202 stolen bases. His career OPS+ of 149 ranks 37th all-time. Here's a partial listing of other categories in which Bagwell ranks in the top 100 all-time: runs scored (63rd), RBI (49th), total bases (70th), doubles (67th), home runs (38th), walks (28th), extra-base hits (44th), times on base (57th), sac flies (25th), defensive games as first baseman (11th), double plays turned as a first baseman (12th) and career bWAR (63rd). In other words, Bagwell's got an impressive dossier. 

As well, "Bags" in his career racked up four All-Star appearances, three Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove. Bagwell also won the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 1991 and the NL MVP Award in 1994 (in addition to five other top-10 finishes in the MVP balloting). The bat we know was deeply impressive, but Bagwell was anything but a one-dimensional slugger. His athleticism made him an asset with the glove and on the bases. 

Once again, we'll turn to Jay Jaffe's JAWS system to provide us with the bottom line. JAWS sees Bagwell as comfortably exceeding the Hall's standards for first basemen in terms of both career and peak value. In fact, JAWS tabs Bagwell as having the sixth-highest score of any first baseman. Of the top 10 first basemen per JAWS, just three -- Bagwell and the not-yet eligible Albert Pujols and Jim Thome -- aren't in Cooperstown. 

Of course, at odds with all of this is the fact that Bagwell has come up short in each of his four previous times on the ballot. Here's how his ballot percentages have tracked ... 

2011: 41.7 percent
2012: 56.0 percent
2013: 59.6 percent
2014: 54.3 percent

That's not encouraging. That big jump in 2012 seemed to put Bagwell on target, but as the ballot got more crowded with worthies he lost ground in 2013 and 2014. So what's going on? On a lesser level, that Bagwell didn't meet any of the traditional Hall of Fame benchmarks -- i.e., 3,000 hits or 500 home runs -- is likely working against him. That's especially the case considering he manned a bat-first position. (Who knows, had Bagwell not lost all those games to the 1994-95 labor stoppage, then maybe he would've gotten to 500 homers -- it's quite unlikely but possible given the way he was hitting at the time.) 

Beyond that, Bagwell, as a muscled power hitter who played in the 1990s and early "aughts," is likely suspected of PED use in some voting quarters. Bagwell denies ever having used steroids, and no one's offered any proof to the contrary. Suffice it to say, I strongly disagree with this kind of speculative penalty. 

In the end, you're left with a worthy player who likely doesn't make it. Bear in mind that Bagwell, thanks to a recent rule change, will get just 10 years on the BBWAA ballot instead of 15, so 2015 marks the halfway point for him. For Bagwell to have a shot before his time runs out, the voters will need to clear some space by voting in a succession of large classes and Bagwell will need to reverse his downward trend. He's not getting in this year or next, probably, and gains are necessary in order to give Bagwell a shot in his final years of eligibility.