Indians vs. Astros ALDS preview: Playoff schedule, TV channel, stream, predictions and things to know

At first blush, you'd think the Astros could be in for an easy time of it when it comes to their ALDS matchup with the Indians, which begins Friday at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Sure, predicting the outcome in a best-of-five affair in a sport like baseball is a fool's errand, but consider the following:

The Astros are the reigning champions.
The Astros won 103 games in the regular season despite playing in a division that housed the 97-win Athletics, the 89-win Mariners, and the .500-ish Angels.
The Astros in 2018 had an MLB-best run differential of plus-263.
The Astros finished 12 games ahead of the Indians, who, in contrast, played in the worst division in baseball.
The Astros won the season series against the Indians by a margin of four games to three. In those games, they out-scored the Tribe 45-29.
The Astros will host a potential Game 5 against Cleveland, and the Indians this season were just three games above .500 in road games.

In light of all that, yes, picking the Astros in this series seems the wisest, safest tack, but of course nothing's that simple in baseball.

Before we take a deeper dive, the essentials for this particular ALDS:

ALDS schedule

Date	Time	Matchup	TV
Fri., Oct. 5	2 p.m. ET	Cleveland at Houston	TBS
Sat., Oct. 6	4:30 p.m. ET	Cleveland at Houston	TBS
Mon., Oct. 8	1:30 p.m. ET	Houston at Cleveland	TBS
Tue., Oct. 9*	4:30 p.m. ET	Houston at Cleveland	TBS
Thurs., Oct. 11*	4 p.m. ET	Cleveland at Houston	TBS

*if necessary

LDS games will air on FS1, TBS and MLB Network. Games on TBS and FS1 can be streamed on fuboTV (Try for free). For a look at the complete schedule, click here.

Now let's give this one the "what you need to know" treatment:

The Astros do almost everything well

Yes, you'd expect broad-based excellence from a team that out-scored its opponents by, as noted, 263 runs. And indeed that's the case. The Astros' offense ranked fifth in the 15-team AL in runs scored and OPS. Meantime, the Astros led the AL with a rotation ERA of 3.16, and they also paced the AL with a bullpen ERA of 3.03. As well, they ranked third in the AL in defensive efficiency (i.e., the percentage of balls in play that a defense converts into outs). Little wonder, then, that allowed a mere 534 runs on the season.

Looking to impugn their work? You'd point to the fact that Houston ranked just 11th in the AL in FanGraphs' team baserunning metric. Mostly, though, it's incredibly difficult to score runs off the Astros -- 63 times this season they've allowed three runs or fewer. Throw in a lineup that's peppered with stars, and, yeah, Houston wins a lot of games.

The Houston bullpen could be built for the playoffs

Last season the Astros barged to the belt and the title without a great deal of help from many of their go-to-relievers. Manager A.J. Hinch to fill in the gap leaned on a couple of regular-season starters to fill in the gaps (Brad Peacock was huge in the World Series, and Lance McCullers' relief performance in Game 7 of the ALCS won't soon be forgotten).

You'll see some of that again, except this time around the usual relief corps is probably in better shape for the Astros. Two additional big factors are the very successful conversion of Collin McHugh into a full-time reliever and trade -- however unseemly and controversial -- of Ken Giles for lockdown closer Roberto Osuna. Throw in the possible bullpen availability of McCullers or Charlie Morton and perhaps Josh James, and Hinch has a lot of options for the middle and late innings.

Of note: Hinch chose to leave Hector Rondon, Peacock, Chris Devenski, and Joe Smith off his ALDS roster.

There's great potential for old-school pitching

Especially in the postseason these days, the bullpens tend to dominate. Already, we've seen the Athletics go with a bullpen day in an elimination game. However, if you're weary of all the pitching changes and increasing rarity of the ace performance in October, then the Indians and Astros are here to help. Take a look at the likely pitching matchups:

Game 1: Corey Kluber vs. Justin Verlander
Game 2: Carlos Carrasco vs. Gerrit Cole
Game 3: Mike Clevinger vs. Dallas Keuchel

In Game 4, the Indians will go with Trevor Bauer or perhaps Shane Bieber against Morton or McCullers (or Hinch could piggyback the two). That Game 1 beauty features two aces with a combined 512 strikeouts on the season. More broadly, consider this:

The Indians this season were the only team whose starters averaged more than six innings per start.
The Astros were second in MLB with an average of 5.9 innings per start.
Indians starters threw 100 or more pitches 83 times this season to lead MLB.
Astros starters ranked second, as they threw 100 or more pitches on 73 occasions.
The Indians led all of MLB with 98 quality starts on the year, and the Astros were second with 97.
No other team had more than 84 quality starts.

Now consider that the rotation fat is trimmed a bit in the postseason (no fifth starters). We also know that these two managers will ride their aces longer than most managers do. In fact, Hinch, in order to persuade Verlander to approve the trade to Houston, famously promised the pitcher that he wouldn't quick-hook him. If you're pining for the classic playoff pitching duels of yore, then this series gives you your last, best chance.

Josh Donaldson is an X-factor

To the frustration of some other AL contenders, the Indians were able to finagle a trade for star third baseman Josh Donaldson just before the August waiver period expired. Prior to the trade, Donaldson endured serious calf troubles and was limited to just 36 games played for the Blue Jays. Along the way, he put up an OPS+ of 109 -- solid but sub-par by his standards. Since joining the Indians, though, Donaldson has batted a more characteristic .280/.400/.520 with three home runs and as many walks as strikeouts in 60 plate appearances. Yes, the sample size is miniscule, but Donaldson's post-trade surge at least raises hopes that he's something close to vintage form heading into the playoffs. If we get timely glimpses of MVP-caliber Donaldson, then the Indians will be threats to go deep. This, after all, is an offense that ranked third in the AL in runs scored and OPS mostly without Donaldson.

What about Andrew Miller?

The once-dominant lefty reliever was a central part of the Indians' 2016 run to the pennant and Game 7 of the World Series. This season, though, Miller has struggled with injuries an effectiveness. He comes into the ALDS with a regular-season ERA of 4.24 and a K/BB ratio of 2.81 -- both marks significantly worse than what we've come to expect from Miller. There's also this ...

Miller saw a dip in velocity last year, on average, and that trend has continued this season. He's now lost more than a tick-and-a-half since 2016, and that's obviously a troubling development. It could be age- or injury-related, and more likely it's some combination of the two.

The July trade acquisitions of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber and the shifting of the fifth starter to the bullpen (Bauer as a high-volume playoff reliever is a compelling thought) mean Terry Francona has more to work with, but a vintage Miller would help matters greatly. How Miller looks and how he's deployed early in this series will be telling in terms of both Miller's readiness and Francona's confidence in him.

The Indians' postseason outlook may be better than you'd think

Strong rotation plus Donaldson plus their first postseason with Hand and Cimber plus a pair of MVP candidates in the lineup? Maybe this one's close than you might think if all you're going on is those bullet points up top.

Speaking of which, the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) actually favors Cleveland in this series. It's a tight margin -- SportsLine gives the Indians a 52.6 percent chance of advancing -- but that's still surprising. What gives? Broadly speaking, the model favors Kluber over Verlander, and those two figure to square off twice, provided the series goes at least four games.

Either way, don't be surprised if this one is a white-knuckled affair.

So who wins every playoff game? And which teams are a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to get MLB Playoff picks from the proven model that simulates every game 10,000 times, and find out.