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This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.

All times Eastern | All odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Cardinals at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.TV

  • The Pick: Marlins (-130)
  • Key Trend: The Cardinals are 0-4 in the last four meetings.

There's no doubt that the Cardinals have been one of the most disappointing teams in the majors. With their struggles continuing of late, I'm fading them.

Despite being a dominant arm in the past, Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has been less-than-stellar. He's accumulated a 5-5 record to go along with a 4.60 ERA, while surrendering at least six earned runs in two of his last three starts. The veteran right-hander's strikeout numbers have also been down in 2023 with five or less in his past three outings.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are sending young arm Eury Perez to the mound, and he's been electric. Sure, Perez got hammered in his last start to the tune of six earned runs, but keep in mind that it was against the Braves, who have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. Aside from that, Perez has yielded one run or less in each of his previous six starts, and the Marlins have been victorious in four of those outings. I'm counting on Perez to dominate yet again.

💰 More MLB picks

Kansas City Royals v Detroit Tigers
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Royals at Guardians, 7:10 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.TV

  • The Pick: Over 9 runs (-105)
  • Key Trend: The over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.

Despite these being two of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball, I'm actually hammering the over here.

The biggest reason is Royals starter Jordan Lyles. To put it mildly, he's been brutal. Lyles has a shocking 1-11 record on top of having a mind-boggling 6.68 ERA. The right-hander has given up three or fewer runs in just three of his 16 starts this season.

In addition, Lyles has lasted at least five innings in nine of his last 10 starts, so the Guardians should have plenty of time to get to him from a runs standpoint. It also doesn't hurt that the Guardians have topped the six-run mark in three of their last five games, including tagging the Braves for six runs in a 6-5 win on Tuesday

  • The Pick: Jordan Lyles Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-152)
  • Key Trend: Lyles has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in three of his last four starts.

You better believe that we are double-dipping when it comes to Lyles. I'm shocked that the Royals continue to trot him out there, but we're going to take advantage of it.

Lyles' struggles have been well-documented, as he consistently gives up a boatload of runs (12 over his last three starts to be exact). It also doesn't hurt that he's not the type of pitcher that has overpowering stuff. If the Guardians are able to get to Lyles early, he could have a short outing, which puts the strikeout prop very much in play.