Mets vs. Padres odds, prediction, line, start time: 2023 MLB picks, Tuesday, April 11 best bets from top model

The SportsLine model simulated Tuesday's San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets game 10,000 times and released its MLB picks today

By CBS Sports Staff

Apr 11, 2023 at 5:00 pm ET • 3 min read

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The San Diego Padres look to stay hot when they take on the New York Mets in National League action on Tuesday. The Padres (6-5), who have won three of their last four games, were 45-36 on the road in 2022. The Mets (6-5), who went 2-1 in their last series, were 54-27 at home a year ago. San Diego won six of nine meetings with New York last season, including a 2-1 edge in the postseason. The game is slated to begin at 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Stadium in New York.

The Padres are hitting .234 as a team this season, 22nd-best in MLB, while the Mets have a .217 average, 27th-best. New York is a -140 favorite (risk $140 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total runs scored is 9. Before making any Padres vs. Mets picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons, and it finished the 2022 MLB season on a 20-14 roll. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Padres vs. Mets and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Mets vs. Padres:

Padres vs. Mets money line: Padres +118, Mets -140
Padres vs. Mets over/under: 9 runs
Padres vs. Mets run line: Mets -1.5 (+140)
SD: The Padres are 6-3 in their last nine games overall
NYM: The Over is 4-1 in the Mets' last five Tuesday games
Padres vs. Mets picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Mets

Lefty David Peterson (0-1, 6.00 ERA) will start for New York and he'll be backed by a powerful lineup. Shortstop Francisco Lindor is hitting .233 on the season, but has hits in three of the last four games. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles and two RBI in a 7-6 loss at Milwaukee last Wednesday. In 16 games against San Diego, Lindor is hitting .246 with five doubles, two homers and five RBI. He has hit well at Citi Field, batting .253 in 148 career appearances there, including 18 doubles, two triples, 25 homers and 89 RBI.

Second baseman Jeff McNeil has been red hot, hitting in three consecutive games. He has two multi-hit games this season, including a 3-for-3 performance at Milwaukee in a 9-0 loss on April 4. He was 2-for-4 with an RBI in a 5-3 win at Miami on March 30. For the season, he is batting .237 with five RBI and three runs scored. He has feasted on Padres pitching, hitting .351 with four doubles and two RBI in 13 career games.

Why you should back the Padres

Left-hander Ryan Weathers (0-0, 3.60 ERA) will start for San Diego. He is coming off a no-decision in a 5-4 win over Arizona last Monday. In that game, Weathers pitched five innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs with one walk and two strikeouts. This will be his first-ever appearance against the Mets. He started just one game a year ago, but went 4-7 with a 5.32 ERA in 30 games, including 18 starts, in 2021.

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has been hitting well with at least one hit in 10 of 11 games. He was 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBI and two runs scored in an 8-6 loss to Arizona on April 4. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles and a run scored in a 7-2 loss to Colorado on March 30. In 13 career games against New York, Bogaerts is hitting .250 with a double, two homers and eight RBI.