MLB Prospects: Ranking top candidates to win 2017 Rookie of the Year
These six players have a chance to following in the footsteps of Corey Seager and Michael Fulmer
By
Mike Axisa
•
4 min read
Monday night, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager and Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer were named the 2016 Rookies of the Year. Seager won unanimously, as expected. Fulmer managed to hold off Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, who made a late season surge.
Seager came into 2016 as the top prospect in baseball and the heavy favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year award. Fulmer certainly wasn't an unknown -- he was traded for Yoenis Cespedes last year, after all -- but he wasn't among the AL Rookie of the Year favorites coming into 2016.
The unpredictable nature of the Rookie of the Year is what makes it the most exciting award, in my opinion. Yeah, we know who the top prospects are each season, but it's not often they actually win like Seager. Making the jump from the minors to MLB is really tough and guys have to adjust.
With that in mind, let's take a super early look at candidates for the 2017 Rookie of the Year awards. As a reminder, the MLB rookie limits are 50 innings and 130 at-bats, or 45 days of service time outside September. The players are listed alphabetically and we're going to start with the AL, the superior league.
American League
Andrew Benintendi, OF
The 22-year-old Benintendi will still be rookie eligible next year because he had only 105 at-bats with the Red Sox and accrued 30 days of service time before September. In those 105 at-bats, he put up a .295/.359/.476 (117 OPS+) batting line with 11 doubles, two home runs, and a solid 25/10 K/BB.
Benintendi is a sweet swingin' lefty who knows the strike zone and is capable of both hitting for power and stealing bases. And playing strong defense too. The Rookie of the Year award is as much about playing time as it is production, as the Fulmer-Sanchez debate showed us. Benintendi figures to be Boston's everyday left fielder on Opening Day next season. He's the early favorite to lead all rookies in WAR in 2017.
Jharel Cotton, RHP
The A's acquired Cotton from the Dodgers in the Rich Hill/Josh Reddick trade, and after a quick Triple-A tune-up, he had a 2.15 ERA (187 ERA+) in five starts and 29 1/3 innings with Oakland in September. He struck out 23 and walked only four, which locked him into a 2017 rotation spot.
Cotton, 24, is not a tippy top prospect. In fact, he's never once appeared on a top 100 list. As a four-pitch pitcher with good control and a swing-and-miss changeup, not to mention a pitcher friendly home ballpark, my guess is Cotton will have himself a very nice season in 2017 and sneak up on people in the Rookie of the Year race.
Francis Martes, RHP
The soon-to-be 21-year-old Martes is my AL Rookie of the Year dark horse. He has yet to pitch above Double-A, but this season he had a 3.30 ERA with 131 strikeouts and 47 walks in 125 1/3 innings at the level despite being more than four years younger than the average Texas League player.
Martes figures to open next season in Triple-A, which means he's only a phone call away from the big leagues. His power fastball/curveball combination is electric and figures to miss a ton of bats right away. Two outside factors will impact his Rookie of the Year candidacy: when the Astros call him up, and whether he has to be shut down at some point due to an innings limit.
Honorable Mention: Carson Fulmer, White Sox; Aaron Judge, Yankees; Yohander Mendez, Rangers; Yoan Moncada, Red Sox; Bradley Zimmer, Indians
National League
Jose De Leon, RHP
The Dodgers used 15 different starting pitchers this past season, three more than any other postseason team, and one of those was the 24-year-old De Leon. He had a 6.35 ERA (62 ERA+) with 15 strikeouts and seven walks in four starts and 17 innings late in the season. Not the best MLB debut, but it happens.
De Leon is on this list because he has a history of extremely high strikeout rates -- he fanned 163 in 114 1/3 minor league innings in 2016 -- and now that he's higher up the depth chart, he figures to get more big league time in 2017. He's not a slam dunk like Seager, but De Leon has the ability to provide impact right away next year. Besides, the Dodgers always seem to have a Rookie of the Year candidate on their roster.
Dansby Swanson, SS
Like Benintendi, 22-year-old Swanson remains rookie eligible despite an August call-up this past season. In fact, Swanson is rookie eligible by one at-bat. He had 129. The limit is 130. Can't get closer than that. He hit .302/.361/.442 (115 OPS+) with seven doubles and three home runs in those 129 at-bats with Atlanta.
Swanson, who I'm sure you know came over from the Diamondbacks in the Shelby Miller trade after being the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft, is a do-it-all shortstop without much flash to his game. He's going to be a star who doesn't generate much attention because he quietly goes about his business. I wonder if that'll work against him in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Alex Reyes, RHP
I'm not sure any rookie eligible player has a more electric arm right now than Reyes. The Cardinals called the 22-year-old up in August, and he gave them 46 innings of 1.57 ERA (263 ERA+) ball with 52 strikeouts. He made five starts and seven relief appearances, and in 10 of those 12 outings, he allowed no more than one run.
The big question: will Reyes be a starter or reliever? That decision will have a major impact on his Rookie of the Year candidates. Reyes has a dominant fastball/curveball combination and a promising changeup, so he's equipped to dominate in any role. St. Louis could look to break him in as a reliever before moving him into the rotation, a la Carlos Martinez.
Honorable Mention: Ozzie Albies, Braves; Josh Bell, Pirates; Lucas Giolito, Nationals; Tyler Glasnow, Pirates; Manuel Margot, Padres
