New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros ALCS odds: Picks from advanced computer model

The American League Championship Series opens Friday night as the Houston Astros host the New York Yankees.

Houston beat the Boston Red Sox 3-1 in the American League Divisional Series to advance, while the Yankees knocked off the Minnesota Twins in the AL Wild Card game and then came from behind to beat the Indians 3-2 in their ALDS series.

The Astros are favored in the best-of-seven ALCS at -165 on the moneyline. That means it would take a $165 bet on Houston to win $100. The Yankees are +145 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet on them to win the series would return $145. If you go big, it could be a life-changing bet.  

With so much on the line, you need to hear what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has to say.

A co-founder of AccuScore, Oh specializes in sports simulations, projections and statistical analysis. His advanced computer model has been used to power projections at the three largest fantasy sports sites. His NFL projection model at SportsLine is rated No. 1 by NFLPickWatch.

Now Oh's model has simulated the entire ALCS - every pitch, every at-bat, and every inning. He's sharing the results over at SportsLine.

In Game 1, the model has Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka going 6.3 innings, giving up 2.8 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and recording 5.2 strikeouts. Yankees star rookie outfielder Aaron Judge is projected to pick up 1.08 hits and 2.44 total bases.

Astros starter Dallas Keuchel is projected to throw 6.0 solid innings, giving up 1.9 runs, 5.6 hits, and striking out 6.1 batters. Second basemen Jose Altuve leads the way for Houston offensively with 1.15 hits and 1.83 total bases.

And one thing we can tell you about the series outcome: the model says a seven-game series is the most likely scenario, with 33.2 percent of the simulations leading to a winner in that game. There's also a 32.0 percent chance that this series goes six games.

So who wins this best-of-seven series between the Astros and Yankees? Visit SportsLine now to see which team is heading to the World Series and see whether the Astros or Yankees is the better value on the money line, all from the proven computer model that powered all three major fantasy companies, and find out.

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