Will Justin Verlander finally win a World Series game? Plus, other best bets for Thursday
Verlander has a 6.07 ERA in 43 innings across his eight World Series starts
By
Tom Fornelli
•
4 min read
The following statements can be true simultaneously. A traditional no-hitter, thrown by one pitcher, is extremely hard to do, and should be celebrated. Combined no-hitters are also extremely hard to do, and should be celebrated.
Based on the reaction I've seen to Houston's combined no-no in Philadelphia last night (the second time Astros pitchers have accomplished the feat this season, by the way), this is not a common opinion. It's dismissed as not a big deal since it wasn't the no-hitter we're used to seeing, but it's still incredible. I don't know why we so often go out of our way to diminish an accomplishment just because it's different, but I suppose trying to figure that out would require a lot more words than I'm supposed to include in this lede, so we'll save it for another time and place.
In the meantime, maybe take some time to sit back and appreciate an accomplishment instead of immediately trying to diminish it. Oh, and read these stories too.
- If you're waiting for Kyrie to apologize, it's going to be a while.
- The Spurs are being sued by their former team psychologist over allegations against Josh Primo.
- The Bills are considering Odell Beckham.
- Bradley Chubb hasn't played for the Dolphins yet, but he has a new contract.
OK, let's go for a combined no-loser tonight with our picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Astros at Phillies, 8:03 p.m. | TV: Fox
- Key Trend: The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings
- The Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
On the surface, tonight's pitching matchup skews heavily in Houston's favor. It's future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander against one-time flamethrower Noah Syndergaard. But it's never that easy, is it?
While Verlander is one of the best pitchers I've seen in my lifetime, it's hard to ignore the struggles he's experienced in the World Series. After allowing five earned runs in Game 1, Verlander's ERA rose to 6.07 in 43 innings in his eight World Series starts. His teams are 1-7 in those starts, and the lone win came courtesy of a late rally from the Astros offense in Game 2 of the 2017 World Series against the Dodgers.
While the sample size isn't large enough to reach a definite conclusion, it's large enough to raise an eyebrow. The results are startling. Then there's Syndergaard. Syndergaard is a contact pitcher now, and the Houston offense makes more solid contact than any other team in baseball. Verlander's struggles in the World Series and Sydnergaard's inability to miss bats mean we're likely to see a lot of balls in play tonight, which means we'll see more runs. I just hope it's a close game, too, because the last few have been boring. You know, no-hitters aside.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: If I'm not enough for you, check out what the Projection Model has to say. It's giving an A-graded play on the moneyline.
💰 The Picks
🏈 NFL
Eagles at Texans, 8:15 p.m | TV: Amazon Prime
The Pick: Miles Sanders Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-117) -- I had a harrowing experience earlier this week. I was walking my dog through the woods near my house when suddenly an eagle swooped down upon us. It came within 10 feet of my head before pulling up, flying in front of us, and rising back toward the top of a tree. It scared the hell out of me. I couldn't identify it right away (it was too big to be a falcon or hawk) but a quick Google search showed there are two types of eagle where I live: bald eagles and golden eagles. It wasn't a bald eagle, so it had to be a golden eagle.
Naturally, after the terror faded, I began to wonder what it meant. Was it a sign that I should take the Eagles -13.5 tonight against Houston? Or would taking the Eagles after an eagle might have been trying to eat my dog (seriously, they attack bear cubs) be a beta move? I don't know! My mind is in a pretzel here!
So, instead, I'm going to make the no duh play and take Miles Sanders Over 77.5 Rushing Yards. The Houston defense is awful against the run, and Philly will likely build a big lead and stay on the ground on a short week.
🏈 College Football
UTEP at Rice, 7 p.m | TV: CBS Sports Network
The Pick: Under 47 (-110) -- This total is a little too high, given the full context. On the season, Rice's offense ranks 75th nationally with an offensive success rate of 40.6% and 65th with an average of 2.28 points per possession. However, in conference play, those numbers have dipped to 38.2% and 2.04. Tonight, the Owls face a UTEP defense that has struggled mightily against passing attacks but has been phenomenal against the run in conference play. Rice does not have the kind of passing attack able to exploit it.
Finally, the weather will play a factor, as current forecasts call for heavy winds in Houston. No weather impacts scoring more than wind. It makes it challenging to pass vertically, and it affects special teams. I would marry this under if the total were at 49, but I'm at least willing to take it out to dinner at 47.5.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine's Mike McClure is sharing his top Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football.
