Yankees vs. Royals odds, line: April 21 MLB picks, predictions from advanced computer model on 38-24 roll

The New York Yankees are back to .500 with wins in four of their last five games and on Sunday they'll have the chance to get to above .500 with a victory. But standing in their way will be the Kansas City Royals. It's the final contest of a four-game series and the Yankees lead the series 2-1 with wins on Friday and Saturday. The Yankees (10-10) will be sending out James Paxton (2-2, 3.91 ERA) while the Royals (7-14) will go with Jorge Lopez (0-2, 4.30 ERA). First pitch is at 1:05 p.m. ET in Yankee Stadium and New York is the -233 favorite with the total at eight in the latest Yankees vs. Royals odds. But before you make your Yankees vs. Royals picks, be sure to check out the Sunday MLB predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks in multiple sports. It is off to a profitable start on all its top-rated MLB picks this season, entering Week 4 on a strong 38-24 run. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in on Yankees vs. Royals. We can tell you it's leaning toward the over, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own MLB picks.

Heading into Sunday's series finale, the model knows that the Royals have been hitting the ball relatively well. Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon and Hunter Dozier all have an OPS of .898 or higher so far on the season and collectively they're a pretty formidable bunch at the top of the lineup.

They all have at least nine extra-base hits on the season and Paxton has been prone to giving up extra-base hits this year. Paxton gave up five extra-base hits in a loss to the Astros on April 10 and three of those extra-base hits came when Paxton had fallen behind in the count. So look for the Royals to work favorable situations to find pitches to drive on Sunday.

But just because Kansas City boasts a dangerous lineup doesn't guarantee that it will be the best value on the Yankees vs. Royals money line.

Paxton is also coming off his best start of the year. He threw eight shutout innings in a win over the Red Sox where he allowed just two hits and struck out 12, while walking one. That start lowered his ERA all the way from 6.00 to 3.91, and the 20 swinging strikes he generated was tied for the fourth-most he's ever had in a start in his career.

Current Royals have an OPS of just .486 against Paxton in 56 plate appearances and struck out 34 percent of the time. If Paxton is hitting his spots, the Royals are going to have a tough time generating contact and scoring runs to keep up.

So who wins Royals vs. Yankees? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Royals vs. Yankees money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

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