Why Al Horford vs. Tristan Thompson is the most important non-LeBron-related matchup in the East finals
Al Horford has always been incredible, but one player has stood in his way of playoff success
•
6 min read
As the Celtics dominated the Cavaliers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, Al Horford did something unexpected. He dominated. The Celtics big man has been phenomenal in the playoffs, averaging 17.2 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. In Game 1, he poured in 20 points, pulled down six rebounds and dished out four assists. As injuries have decimated Boston's core, Horford has stepped up at every opportunity. He defensively dominated Joel Embiid in the second round and was a total matchup nightmare for the Bucks in the opening round.
However, it was still surprising to see him handle Cleveland the way he did. For as great as Horford is, the Cavs have always been a team he's struggled against ever since LeBron James returned to Cleveland in 2015. This goes beyond the Celtics and back to his time with the Hawks.
Horford has been eliminated by the Cavs the past three postseasons, including twice in the conference finals. He averaged no more than 15 points, five rebounds, and 4.5 assists over the course of those three series. Horford has never been a volume scorer before this postseason, so it's not surprising to see him average around 15 points, and besides, he's more valuable in other facets of the game.
The real issue the past three postseasons for Horford's opponents has been their ability to shut him down, keep him off the boards, and take him out of the game altogether. When fans and experts talk about the do-everything type whose value goes beyond the box score, they're almost always describing a player like Al Horford. However, his on-off numbers over the past three series his team has been eliminated are painful. These are an admittedly small sample size of games, but the numbers speak for themselves. The Cavs have owned Horford when he's on the floor. Via NBA stats:
| Al Horford | Off rtg off | Def rtg off | Net rtg off | Off rtgf on | Def rtg on | Net rtg on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014-15 (Hawks) | 99.3 | 115.5 | -16.2 | 96.9 | 105.3 | -8.4 |
2015-16 (Hawks) | 127.0 | 108.9 | 18.1 | 96.7 | 122.5 | -25.9 |
2016-17 (Celtics) | 109.3 | 115.8 | -6.5 | 99.2 | 132.2 | -33.0 |
The only time a Horford team has been better against the Cavs while he's on the floor was his first matchup with the Hawks. Even then, he was still a negative so it's not like he has something positive to fall back on or a history of something that worked. The Cavs have a formula that has traditionally worked for them.
So what was different about Game 1? It was personnel. The Cavs allowed Horford to abuse them the way they did by putting him in favorable matchups. No discredit to Kevin Love, but the Cavs small-ball starting lineup isn't going to slow Horford down. He's become a master at using his strength to simply overpower smaller defenders with simple moves. Check out how he bullied Love for his first bucket of the game on Sunday:
The rest of Game 1 was classic Horford. He used his size down low and was savvy near the perimeter. Horford was never stagnant. He was constantly moving and forcing Love to adjust his feet, get in position and try to contain the much bigger and stronger Horford. There were multiple times where Horford left Love in no man's land for an open 3-pointer or made a cut to the rim when the Cleveland defense had a miscommunication on a switch. If Horford is left unchecked, he can do this to anybody. He might not score 40 points, but he'll pick apart a defense in his own way.
It's obvious why the Cavs need to adjust and bring Tristan Thompson back into the starting lineup. The big man has floated in and out of the rotation this season, but we've seen a resurgence in his value in the postseason. He's also given Horford fits in previous playoff series whenever he's on.
When Horford is on against Thompson, he's made completely irrelevant to the play in every conceivable way -- on offense, defense and rebounding. He completely removes the do-it-all player out of the picture. Even when Horford scores, he does so inefficiently. It took him 18 shots to score 16 points in the Celtics' Game 3 victory during last year's conference finals. All the on-off numbers from the past three seasons have come against a Thompson-led unit.
It makes sense why Horford would struggle against a player like Thompson. He's a matchup problem. Horford struggles against centers that are typically bigger and more athletic. He can't overpower Thompson the same way he does Love, and his ability to recover doesn't allow him to slip free to the perimeter or to make a cut to the rim. Thompson's on-off numbers tell a similar story. Via NBA stats:
| Tristan Thompson | Off rtg of | Def rtg off | Net rtg off | Off rtg on | Def rtg on | Net rtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014-15 (against Hawks) | 115.0 | 108.0 | 7.0 | 108.1 | 95.3 | 12.8 |
2015-16 (against Hawks) | 119.3 | 107.4 | 11.8 | 117.5 | 104.9 | 12.6 |
2016-17 (against Celtics) | 122.1 | 101.7 | 20.4 | 129.0 | 102.9 | 26.1 |
Seeing this, it should come as no surprise that Cavs coach Tyronn Lue has already hinted at a starting lineup change in Game 2 with Thompson. Via Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com:
"It's definitely something we have to weigh," Lue said. "We weighed it before the series started, but we'd won seven out of eight and we weren't going to adjust until someone beat us and we didn't play well with that lineup that got us to this point."
Lue, not one who typically cites analytical data when announcing decisions, said that Thompson was No. 1 in the league over the last three years guarding Horford out of all defenders who had taken him on for at least 30 possessions.
"So, that's a good, you know?" Lue said.
It sounds like the Cavs saw enough of Horford in Game 1 to know that they can't just allow him to run wild. He might not be the type to take over a game purely with his scoring, but what he did to the Cleveland bigs early on caused enough chaos for Boston to build out an early 25-9 lead.
The Celtics have to be aware that this matchup is coming and they're definitely aware of Horford's history against Thompson. How Horford and the Celtics respond could make or break the series. In Game 1, there were glimpses of how they might choose to go about this. Thompson played 20 minutes, pulled down 11 rebounds, and scored eight points. However, only nine of those 20 minutes came with Horford on the floor.
During that nine-minute stretch, Horford didn't attempt a single shot from the floor, which felt by design, because what Horford did instead was work to remove Thompson from the play on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he played the passing lanes and use Thompson as a means to kill the Cavs spacing. Offensively, Horford became a distributor with the ball in his hands and someone to remove Thompson from the play. He dished out three assists while Thompson was on the floor. Any time he didn't have the ball, he would play as far away from it and the rim as he possibly could.
This chess match between Horford and Thompson will be fascinating to watch. In a sense, just by being on the floor Thompson is doing his job. He's taking Horford out of the play because the Celtics aren't even challenging the matchup. However, by removing Horford, they are in a sense eliminating Thompson from the play as well. He can't protect the rim or blow up the pick-and-roll if the Celtics are choosing to remove him from the play.
Unfortunately, the nine-minute sample size isn't enough to gain a full understanding of how these two might match up for the rest of the series. It's a glimpse into how important that change is for the Cavs and Celtics. Thompson is going to be on the floor far more often from this point on. Traditionally, there is nobody better at stopping Horford, but this season has a chance to be different. Horford is playing arguably the best basketball of his career. If there was ever a time for him to overcome the demons of Thompson and the Cavs, it's this series.
