The Miami Heat have seemed like a natural Chris Paul destination for months. The Heat didn't trade for 30-year-old star Jimmy Butler because they wanted to take the long view, and they are one of the few teams that can put together a trade for Paul's $38.5 million salary without doing salary-cap gymnastics. 

Miami has started the season 18-6, good for second in the East. It is 10th in offense and 10th in defense, but the latter ranking undersells how stifling it has looked at its best, especially late in games. Given that the Heat have had such a strong start in the first year of the Butler era, surely they would be emboldened to call the Oklahoma City Thunder and try to go all-in on the season, right?

Wrong, according to NBC Sports' Tom Haberstroh: 

Don't hold your breath. Before trading Russell Westbrook to Oklahoma City, the Rockets tried to engage the Heat on a three-team deal to reroute Paul to Miami, but the Heat resisted, multiple sources told NBC Sports. The Heat's desire for Westbrook was "a level above" their interest in Paul, according to one high-level source involved in those talks. 

As it stands now, the Heat aren't expected to make a run at Paul, per multiple sources. 

Miami's rationale, per Haberstroh, is that it doesn't feel like it needs a massive shake-up, especially not such an expensive one. Paul will turn 35 during the second round of this season's playoffs, and he will make $44.2 million in 2021-22 unless he decides to turn down his player option, a financial sacrifice that would be difficult to imagine even if he were not the president of the National Basketball Players Association. The Heat are widely expected to take part in the 2021 free-agency bonanza, and Paul's contract would get in the way of that. 

Three thoughts: 

  • I wonder if the conversation would be the same if Miami were struggling. You can make a case that the Heat are a CP3 trade away from being true contenders, but you can also make a case that the current version of the team is built to make a deep playoff run. Butler is the de facto point guard in the starting lineup, and Sixth Man of the Year candidate Goran Dragic has never been more efficient, aside from his All-NBA 2013-14 season. It is not as if Miami is desperate for a playmaking upgrade. 
  • Let's say you are suspicious about this entire premise, and you continue to believe that the Heat want Paul if they can get him for a fair price. Let's say you believe that they will find a way to get involved in 2021 free agency regardless, just like they managed to wiggle their way into a Butler deal without cap space by executing a sign-and-trade. What, exactly, would be a fair price for Paul? Miami can't trade a first-round pick because of all its prior dealing, and if it were to send the likes of James Johnson and Dion Waiters to Oklahoma City, it would likely have to include one or more of its young players. Would the Heat be willing to send Justise Winslow or Tyler Herro to OKC? What about Kendrick Nunn or Duncan Robinson? Maybe Dragic could be sent somewhere else in a three-way deal and fetch a first for the Thunder, but he's turning 34 in May and would only be a rental. The point here is that, while Paul and Miami look like a good match in a broad sense, the specifics are complicated. 
  • The Heat are still one of the most fascinating teams in the league as the trade deadline approaches. Haberstroh mentioned Kyle Lowry, JJ Redick and Davis Bertans as potential targets, if their respective teams are open to moving them. Danilo Gallinari, Paul's teammate on this weird Thunder team, is another theoretical fit. Miami has the feel of a buyer, but it is unclear how motivated the front office will be to improve the roster in between now and February, and how attached it is to some of the players who have played roles in its early-season success.