NBA picks as the season resumes and who you should back at The Players Championship to finish in the top 20

You should also be looking out for a low-scoring first half at Madison Square Garden

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 10, 2021 at 3:47 pm ET • 5 min read

Luka Doncic LaMarcus Aldridge Dallas Mavericks San Antonio Spurs

Getty Images

Hello, and Happy Wednesday. I hope you're reading this newsletter on your laptop or tablet while on your couch surrounded by all the sports goodness available to you. I mean, seriously, how much better can life get than it is right now for a sports fan?

As I write this, I'm watching a Premier League soccer match, as well as college basketball. Champions League matches will start soon, and tonight, not only will conference tournaments continue, but the NBA will resume the regular season as well. And Pete Blackburn can watch the NHL too! It's great. There's something for everybody. Hell, if you're a weirdo, you can even watch spring training baseball. All I ask is that if you do watch spring training, don't talk about it. Nobody cares. I love baseball. The only part of spring training that matters is nobody gets hurt. That's it.

Anyway, while there's plenty to watch, there's also plenty to read. So you should take this opportunity to catch up on what you might've missed while sweating your afternoon bets. Then we'll get to the bets you should sweat this evening.

OK, let's make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Spurs at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. | TV: NBA TV
The Pick: Spurs +4 (-110): There are only two games on the NBA slate tonight, but I'm quite fond of the line on this one. I think one of the greatest compliments we can give to Luka Doncic is that he's reached the level of player where people assume the team he plays for is much better than it is, just because Doncic is great. Perhaps that's why the Mavs are only 15-19 ATS this season and 9-12 ATS as favorites. And perhaps that's also why the Mavs are favored by four points in this spot when my numbers suggest they should be 1.5 to 2-point favorites.

Jonathan Coachman is joined by Larry Hartstein and Mike McClure to dish out the best bets in hoops for Wednesday. Rick Gehman gives out his favorite bets for The Players Championship.

Thanks to the break, the Spurs should be pretty close to 100% tonight. LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick White and Rudy Gay are all likely to be active tonight after missing San Antonio's last game before the break. All three will come in handy against a Dallas team that has not been reliable defensively and isn't as efficient offensively as you probably think given the presence of Doncic.

Key Trend: The Spurs are 12-6 ATS as underdogs this season.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model has given an A-grade to one of the plays in this game tonight. But which play is it?

💰The Picks

🏀 College Basketball

Minnesota Northwestern Basketball — USATSI

Northwestern vs. Minnesota, 6:30 p.m | TV: Big Ten Network
The Pick: Northwestern -1 (-110) -- If you're a regular reader of this newsletter, you probably aren't surprised to see this game appearing today. Sure, the fact I'm telling you to bet on Northwestern in a basketball game might cause an eyebrow or two to raise, but Northwestern isn't what matters here. Minnesota is, and we are still very much on the #FadeMinnesota train. Injuries have ravaged the Gophers in recent weeks, and coach Richard Pitino will be fired when the season ends. He knows it, his players know it, and the Gophers' performances as of late show it. Also, Northwestern comes into this game playing its best ball of the season. The Wildcats have won three straight -- a streak that started with a 67-59 win over Minnesota -- and have covered in three of five. Minnesota has lost seven straight and hasn't covered in any of those losses. This is a team that wants the season to be over and has the chance to end it tonight.

Key Trend: Minnesota has gone seven straight games without covering.

Providence vs. DePaul, 9 p.m | TV: FS1
The Pick: 1st Half Under 62.5 (-105) -- A few years ago, a friend tipped me off to a trend that I've been profiting from ever since. This friend told me that, for whatever reason, teams had trouble shooting during neutral court games at Madison Square Garden and needed time to adjust. So this friend told me that, for every game in the Big East Tournament at MSG, bet the first-half under. I listened, and you know what? Since I was first told in 2015, the first-half under in Big East games at MSG has gone 28-18-1. That includes a mark of 0-2 last season before the tournament was shut down. Now I share my friend's knowledge with you. Also, while this pick is for Providence and DePaul, that's the last Big East game being played tonight. Depending on when you're reading this, you could still make the same play in the Xavier-Butler game as well.

Key Trend: First-half unders in Big East Tournament games at Madison Square Garden are 28-18-1 since 2015.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Consummate golf stats expert Sal Johnson showed an uncanny knack for picking long shots last year, and he nailed Bryson DeChambeau's win last week. Now, he provides his best bets for this week's event at TPC Sawgrass.

💸 The DFS Rundown

Russell Westbrook Washington Wizards — Getty Images

With only two games on the slate tonight, I'm going to stick with my favorite option at each position, regardless of price.

PG: Russell Westbrook, Wizards
SG: Dillon Brooks, Grizzlies
SF: Rui Hachimura, Wizards
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mavericks
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Grizzlies

⛳ The Players Championship Top 20s

Patrick Reed PGA Tour Golf — Getty Images

We're betting on each of these golfers to finish in the top 20. Most of them likely won't, but the plan is for enough of them to do so that we profit.