NBA Playoff Picture: As Warriors try to lock up West's 1 seed, Spurs won't make it easy
Breaking down magic numbers and tiebreakers as teams jockey for position down the stretch
By
Matt Moore
•
7 min read
The NBA playoffs begin in 42 days. And while most expect a Cavaliers-Warriors rubber match in the NBA Finals, teams consider their seasons a success or failure based on a lot more than whether they win the title. Making the playoffs would be a great step forward for a team like the Denver Nuggets, while anything short of a conference finals appearance is a letdown for a team like the mighty Spurs.
So with that in mind, here’s your first quick glance at the NBA playoff picture.
Note: “Magic numbers” refers to combination of wins and losses by the competing team. Example: If the Cavaliers have a magic number of nine for a playoff spot, that means they need a combination of nine wins and losses by Miami (the team currently out of the playoffs with the fewest losses).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Race for the No. 1 seed
Contenders: Cleveland, Boston, Washington | Pretender: Toronto (without Kyle Lowry)
The Cavaliers are a pretty safe bet for this. They lead the Celtics by three games overall and four in the loss column, even after Wednesday night’s loss at TD Garden. Their magic number for the No. 1 seed is 20, and they still hold a 2-1 lead in the tiebreaker with one more game to play against Boston. The Celtics would need to do the following in their final 21 games to surpass the Cavs: Catch them in wins, beat the Cavs one last time, then topple them in the conference standings.
It’s not impossible, though. With the Cavs missing Kevin Love and J.R. Smith, there’s real reason to think if they hit just one rough patch, the Celtics might be able to scrap their way enough to make it interesting. Plus, Boston has the easiest remaining schedule based on opponent win percentage, while the Cavs have the toughest. The most likely scenario, however, is the Cavs owning home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The Wizards are in even worse shape, back five games in the loss column and the Cavs have already secured the tiebreaker, so that’s really 5.5 games. The Raptors are seven games back in the loss column and don’t have Kyle Lowry. That’s done with.
Race for first-round home-court advantage (top-four seed)
Locks: Cleveland | Near-Locks: Boston, Washington | Contenders: Toronto, Atlanta
The Cavs’ magic number for home court in the first round is 16. Boston’s magic number is 18, and Washington’s is 21. The Celtics are lacking in tiebreakers all over the top of the conference. Barring a collapse, their four-game lead in the loss column should be safe.
One important thing to note here: In the Celtics-Wizards-Raptors-Hawks bracket you have four teams battling for three spots, in two divisions. The NBA removed the division winner as the tiebreaker a year ago -- it went to head-to-head record. However, if multiple teams end the season with the same record, you settle division winners first. In other words, if those four teams were to wind up tied, you would take the two division winners, break their ties, slot them, then take the other two based on head-to-head record.
If the Lowry-less Raptors and Hawks were to go on a run, and the Wizards and Celtics fall back a little bit simultaneously, Toronto could somehow win the division based on the head-to-head tiebreaker. As a result, Washington would win the tiebreaker (yet to be decided) and the Southeast Division. Even if Boston has the tiebreaker edge over Washington, it wouldn’t matter based on the division winner status. Then the Hawks and Celtics (tied 1-1) would be decided by their final game in April. Boston has plenty of reasons to avoid any sort of tie with anyone else. It comes out on the bottom in many of those scenarios.
One game could shake the balance of seeds 2-5. That’s why these regular season games matter.
Race for final playoff spots (seeds 6-8)
Contenders: Indiana, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, Charlotte
Oy. This is a mess. Indiana has a three-game lead over Miami and Erik Spoelstra’s squad is not slowing down. The Heat are throwing a major wrench in this.
I’m ready to call Brooklyn, Philly, Orlando and New York out of it. There’s always the chance of a late-season run out of nowhere, but it would have to be furious and immediate and there are no signs of that right now from those teams.
Here are the records of the teams in spots 6-10 against one another:
- Chicago: 5-6
- Charlotte: 6-5
- Detroit: 7-8
- Indiana: 4-7
- Miami: 7-7
- Milwaukee: 8-5
It’s way too early to tell what’s going to happen here. Any one of these teams could rattle off enough wins to secure the sixth spot, and any one of them could completely fall apart. The Bucks have the best set of tiebreaker scenarios, but they do things like “get blown out by the Nuggets who are on a road back-to-back” like they did Wednesday. This entire mess is a crapshoot.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Race for the No. 1 seed
Contenders: Golden State, San Antonio
Once again, it’s absurd that a team with a 50-10 record is in serious danger of losing the No. 1 seed, but the Spurs are gonna Spur. The Warriors’ magic number for home court throughout the playoffs is 20. This is doable, even without Kevin Durant, but the Spurs will probably make it tough on them. They play twice this month; if the Spurs win one of those games, they clinch the tiebreaker. It’s easy to say the Warriors will have to keep the pedal down to secure the No. 1 seed. If the Spurs decide it’s just not worth it to chase them for it, they’ll lose a few with rest games, and it’ll be decided. As of now, though, the Warriors are not out of the woods.
Golden State’s magic number for a top-two seed is only 14. So five more losses from the Rockets and the Warriors would only have to go 9-13 to secure home court in the second round. Houston is not going to catch them.
Race for first-round home-court advantage (top-four seed)
Locks: Golden State, San Antonio, Houston | Contenders: Utah, L.A. Clippers, Memphis, Oklahoma City
Magic numbers for home court:
- Golden State: 8
- San Antonio: 13
- Houston: 16
Those are pretty well set. You can expect those to be the top three seeds. Their advantage is high enough; Houston holds a five-game edge over Utah and the Clippers, and secured the tiebreaker over the Clippers on Wednesday.
That final spot is completely up for grabs. Most people tend to think of it as the Clippers’ to lose, but they keep dropping games they need. Utah is not going away, but it also loses plenty of games it should win, and the Grizzlies and Thunder do the opposite -- they win a bunch they should lose.
Oklahoma City is just one game back in the loss column from the No. 4 seed. A Warriors-Thunder playoff series in the second round is possible.
This jam-up is similar to that 2-5 cluster in the Eastern Conference.
Records against one another:
- Clippers: 6-3
- Grizzlies: 5-5
- Thunder: 6-4
- Jazz: 2-7
This could work out very poorly for the Jazz, who are currently in the fourth spot. Utah is 1-2 against OKC head-to-head, and by 1.5 games in division record. If the Thunder win the division, and wind up in a multi-team tie with the Clippers and/or Grizzlies, then the Jazz slide. Memphis already owns the tiebreaker advantage over Utah, and the Clippers are 2-1 with one game to go. If Utah winds up in ties, it won’t work out in its favor. That’s the kind of thing that comes back to haunt you.
One more thing on this grouping: The Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Jazz, Clippers, Grizzlies and Thunder are your top seven seeds. They are not falling further. The Thunder are in seventh with a magic number of just 15 for a top-seven seed. Let’s say Denver goes on a crazy run and finishes 16-5. OKC could go 10-12 and still clinch. No one’s climbing over these top seven. They’re practically locked.
Race for the final playoff spot
Contenders: Denver, Portland, Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans
Worst. Eighth seed. Ever. I want it stated for the record that I am team #LetTheWarriorsHaveABye. The Nuggets lead this raggedy pack and are five games under .500. But someone is going to land that coveted final spot.
Look, the Kings are technically still in this, but with that roster, having just lost to the Nets, I’m just not going to take them seriously until we get inside two weeks and they’re still hanging. Denver has a three-game lead in the loss column, but notably has already lost the tiebreaker to Portland. The Nuggets have tiebreaker-deciding games still to go against Dallas, Minnesota and New Orleans.
It’s impossible to have any confidence in any of these teams, so the edge goes to Denver. But ultimately, this seed is just cannon fodder for Golden State (or San Antonio) and will be decided by whoever is less terrible.
