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After suffering just their second loss of the season last week courtesy of the Spurs, the Thunder have back-to-back games against that very team this week. First away at San Antonio on Tuesday, then home on Christmas Day. 

For an OKC team that got off to a 24-1 start, tying the best record in NBA history over the first 25 games, the schedule has suddenly stiffened up on them. Over the weekend, the Wolves handed them their third defeat of the season and their second loss in three games. Consequently, the early chatter about whether the Thunder will eclipse the Warriors' single-season win record has hushed a little. Before the loss in Minnesota, OKC's odds to reach 70+ wins were -188 while the Thunder were installed at +360 to win 74 games and break the record. After falling to Wolves, those numbers dropped to -118 and +580, respectively, per FanDuel. When chasing greatness, the margin for error is slim and unforgiving. 

Despite the recent setbacks, the 26-3 Thunder remain an imposing team and the heavy favorites to win consecutive championships for the first time since the Warriors pulled it off in 2017-18. Their +16.1 point differential would break the NBA record they set last season. They're fifth in offensive rating and first in defensive rating by a comical margin. The gap between their top-ranked defense and No. 2 Detroit is roughly the same as the distance between the Pistons and the Lakers, who are 23rd in defensive rating. 

OKC is also simultaneously careful and opportunistic. They are first in turnover percentage, opponent's turnover percentage, and points off turnovers. They are second in assist-to-turnover ratio and opponent's points off turnovers. That's a good formula for trying to win another title. So is having a team led by the reigning MVP and Finals MVP (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and a roster that's pretty indisputably the deepest in the league. Jalen Williams made All-Star, All-NBA and All-Defense last season and missed the first 19 games of the year. It did not slow them down.

But being the favorites to win it all is a different proposition than reaching 74 wins. Clearing that bar means only eight losses all season -- which leaves just five more for OKC the rest of the way. There are roughly two thirds of the season remaining. That does not leave the Thunder with much wiggle room.

For comparison purposes, the 2015-16 Golden State team that set the 73-win record were first in offensive rating that season and sixth in defense. They had a +10.8 point differential. The Warriors didn't pick up their third loss until Jan. 13 -- but then lost again two games later. It was one of just two times that they lost two out of three games. They did not lose back-to-back games all season. In addition to winning their first 24 games, they had an 11-game winning streak, three seven-game streaks, a six- and five-game streak, and then closed out the season with four straight victories. For their part, the Thunder started the season with four straight wins, then rattled off 16 in a row before the Spurs knocked them off. 

Golden State played six overtimes and one double overtime. The Warriors lost just one of those. They also excelled when things got tight, going a league-best 30-4 in Clutch games. All three of OKC's losses this season have come in Clutch games. The Thunder aren't easy to beat, and even when they lose they make you work for it. That they are unlikely to get blown out is a notch in their favor if they have any shot to reach 74 wins, as is their depth should they suffer any significant injuries. 

Less helpful is the road ahead. With 53 games left, the Thunder have the hardest remaining strength of schedule. Of those, 27 are in OKC where the Thunder enjoy one of the best home-court advantages in the league. They lost on their floor just eight times all last season, including the playoffs. 

Going through the schedule and doing the win-loss thing generally lends itself better to NFL schedule releases, but for the purposes of this exercise we'll squint at OKC's remaining games and give it a try. Keep in mind fortune telling isn't a science. 

To have any shot of beating the Thunder, you'd hope for various things to happen. Maybe they're collectively cold on offense, as they were in the loss to Minnesota when they shot 37% from the floor and 28% from deep on 39 attempts. Maybe they're uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball, as they were in the loss to the Spurs when they had 15 turnovers leading to 26 San Antonio points. (In fairness, the Spurs weren't any better in that department. They had 19 turnovers in that game resulting in 25 OKC points. Normally that sort of thing would doom you against the Thunder.) Or maybe, as was the case in their first defeat of the season -- a two-point loss to the Blazers in Portland -- stuff just happens and things don't always go your way because, oh yeah, this is the NBA and the guys on the other team are some of the best professionals in the world, too. 

Games that stick out as potential pitfalls for OKC going forward: Tuesday at San Antonio, a team that has already beaten them -- though that would make three losses in five games for the Thunder, which is hard to imagine (and would render this whole endeavor retroactively silly). They start a four-game road trip on Jan. 15 at Houston. You have to figure the Rockets will be up for that one with it being the first time the two teams will play since OKC got past Houston in double overtime in the season opener. 

After that, there's a daunting stretch in late January through mid-February: at Minnesota and Denver, home vs. the Magic and then at San Antonio on a back-to-back, home against the Rockets, then at the Lakers and Phoenix. Another road trip in early March has them at Dallas (who are playing better of late and should have Kyrie Irving back by then), followed by a tough back-to-back turnaround at the Bulls and Knicks. There's a separate five-game road trip in March that begins in Orlando and ends in Boston. Then OKC closes out the season with three of four on the road: in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers, then at Denver, before wrapping things up against the Suns at home. 

Most of the potential danger outlined here comes on the road and/or in back-to-backs. And at some point, OKC will also lose at home. (Bold statement.) Bake all that in and, if I were a betting man, I'd wager that the Thunder lose more than five times over the rest of the season. Of course, I should probably note that I am not a betting man. But good luck to those of you who are so inclined. Betting against the Thunder seems dicey, too.