There's no sugarcoating 2017 for the Browns: it was an egg. A literal one, too, with a goose egg popping up in the win column thanks to the Browns' failure to win a single game all year long. The most impressive part about the whole thing was Hue Jackson, who has never won a game for the Browns on a Sunday, managed to keep his job after going a combined 1-31 in two seasons with Cleveland. 

Make no mistake, though: this is John Dorsey's team now and his fingerprints are all over the place. Starting with the quarterback room, which will look very different from last year. There is finally a veteran in place (Tyrod Taylor, acquired via trade this offseason) to give the roster a higher floor. Baker Mayfield, taken No. 1 overall, will be his primary competition and it could get pretty heated this offseason. Don't be surprised if Baker starts early. 

Dorsey shored up other areas too, acquiring wide receiver Jarvis Landry, a target hog who had a low yards per catch with the Dolphins, in a trade and signing him to a long-term extension. Add Antonio Callaway from the draft with Josh Gordon, David Njoku, Corey Coleman (who might be on thin ice) and Duke Johnson (future TBD as well) and you have some pretty nice pieces in the passing game. Carlos Hyde is a feature back signed in free agency, but he might not be long for Cleveland either, with Nick Chubb coming off the board at the top of the second round. The only real concern here is filling the void left by the retirement of Joe Thomas. Otherwise the Browns offense looks kind of ... good?

The defense is young and dangerous as well: Myles Garrett, Emmanuel Ogbah and Carl Nassib give them a pass rushing presence. Don't sleep on Larry Ogunjobi in the middle. Denzel Ward at No. 4 overall gives them more talent in the back end along with Jabrill Peppers; Damorious Randall could be a sneaky trade addition as well. This defense looks kind of ... good? 

It's just hard to fathom the Browns being actually a quality football team. Vegas isn't in on them yet, setting their over/under for wins in 2018 at 5.5.

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Early Schedule Analysis 

What does it say about the NFL that a team can go 0-16 and still end up with a tough schedule the next year? The Browns open with the Steelers at home in Week 1, play at the Saints in Week 2, get the Jets in Week 3 as a brief respite, then play at the Raiders in Week 4. There's a chance for 2-2 there, but 0-4 is on the table too. They need to win a couple because after that it gets really hard: Ravens (home), Chargers (home), Buccaneers (road), Steelers (road), Chiefs (home) and Falcons (home). That's an 0-6 stretch begging to happen, with four of those games at home. At least they have a Week 11 bye after Atlanta! Unfortunately four of their games post bye are away from Cleveland, including the first two against the Bengals and Texans. The Browns then close with the Panthers (home), Broncos (road), Bengals (home) and Ravens (road). That's just a really tough schedule.

Why They'll Go Over

It's a low bar to hit and as we saw with the Jets last year. Talented, young teams can often times make big strides, shatter expectations and still fall woefully short of hitting their number. The Browns winning five games would be a significant improvement, with them winning five times as many games as the last two years combined, and it would still go under. But there's reason for believing they can get this number, starting with the quarterback position. Cleveland ultimately opted to go with Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick, which gives them a duo of Tyrod Taylor and Mayfield to compete for the Week 1 job. That's a combo that can win football games right now (versus DeShone Kizer and Josh Allen). Particularly when you consider the weapons around them: with Hyde, Chubb and Duke out of the backfield, the running game should be good if the offensive line can overcome the loss of Thomas. The receiving weapons aren't perfect, but there is plenty of upside in Gordon, Landry, Njoku, Coleman and Callaway. It feels very boom or bust, but if Gordon plays the way he did last year over 16 games, Landry eats up yardage underneath and Njoku develops into the seam-buster we saw flashes of last year, the Browns could end up being a league average offense. Don't sleep on the addition of Todd Haley as offensive coordinator to keep Hue Jackson's mitts off the daily gameplan and to make life easier for whatever quarterback plays. A full season of Taylor probably gives the Browns the best chance to hit six wins, even if it might cap their ceiling a bit. Defensively there are viable questions about Gregg Williams' schematic execution but the Browns finished in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA last year and got better by adding Ward with the No. 4 pick. A full season of Myles Garrett would probably result in a Pro Bowl -- Garrett had seven sacks last year in just 11 games. Emmanuel Ogbah deserves more credit than he got during the "why didn't they take Bradley Chubb" pre- and post-draft talk. Strides from this defense and an average offensive performance could result in a second-place division finish. 

Why They'll Go Under

Because they're the Browns. Getting excited about Cleveland football is a May tradition unlike no other; we completely missed the Browns as the obvious worst team in football for the second year in a row last year. It was right there for the taking too, with a rookie quarterback and Jackson not bringing in an offensive coordinator. If Taylor gets off to a slow start and is benched for Mayfield (or just loses out to the rookie, which is entirely possible), it's easy to imagine a situation where Haley and Hue start fighting about deployment of the rookie. Picture a Week 6 "I'm taking back the offense" gambit by Hue, designed to save his job with the Browns stumbling to a couple of bad losses. Jackson has not been a good coach in the last two years and has made several critical errors that cost his team wins. If the young defense doesn't take a step forward (also conceivable) and the offense stumbles, this can easily be a five win team. Leaping from zero wins to six wins is a massive step in the NFL and it might be one the Browns aren't ready to make. 

The Pick

I'm gonna regret it, I'm sure, but picking the Browns to surprise in 2018 is just too easy. They've done a good job building a nice floor with this roster. It's really hard to imagine them going completely winless with Taylor under center and an improved defense, not to mention his weapons. They probably aren't a 10-win team yet, but the changes made by Dorsey this offseason give them a shot at .500 and a chance to compete for a low-end wild card and/or second place in the division. Give me all of your Browns shares, but maybe stage an intervention if I try to do something like make them a best bet. 

VERDICT: OVER