Last year could not have been any more disastrous for the New York Giants. Locker room fighting and poor football led to the franchise, a proud bastion of NFL blue bloodiness, being humiliated in very public fashion. Coach Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese conspired to bench franchise quarterback Eli Manning late in the year for Geno Smith, a slap in the face in the face for a man with a pair of Lombardis on his resume. 

Enter Dave Gettleman, who spent most of the season out of work after being dumped by the Panthers at the last minute. The long-time personnel man returned home to New York, where he'd worked from 1998 through 2012. Gettleman quickly put his stamp on this franchise, hiring Pat Shurmur as his coach, reinstating Eli and publicly proclaiming Manning the future of the franchise despite his advanced age. Gettleman spent big in free agency on Nate Solder to protect Manning and just unloaded on a draft that is designed to help Eli.

The message is clear: the Giants are trying to win now. But can they? Vegas is not quite as bullish on them as the general consensus coming out of the draft, because their 2018 NFL win total is set at 6.5 games. 

Over the next several weeks, Will Brinson will have the best voices around the NFL on the Pick Six Podcast to break down the draft and win totals on a team-by-team schedule. It's a daily dose of football in your podcast app inbox by 6 a.m. to get you right for that commute, gym trip or just staring at your family over a cup of coffee. Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play

Why they'll go over

It was only two years ago the Giants won 11 games with a fairly similar roster -- Reese made it rain in free agency and it actually worked out well for him, which is a rarity in the NFL. If you squint hard enough, you can picture an offense that involves Eli being protected, Odell Beckham playing 16 games in a contract year and exploding for 1,500 receiving yards, Evan Engram continuing to develop as a threat down the seam and Saquon Barkley cruising to NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year behind a season of 1,400  yards from scrimmage. The defense gets an injection of life from some rookies (Lorenzo Carter, B.J. Hill), Eli Apple takes advantage of his clean slate, Olivier Vernon has a next-level breakout (he's still only 27!) and things go poorly for the rest of the NFC East. 

The Eagles might not get Carson Wentz back at 100 percent to start Week 1. The Redskins are in a transitional period, switching quarterbacks from Kirk Cousins to Alex Smith. The Cowboys might not be good! Gettleman has a history of coming in and making a team a contender quickly; Carolina was considered something of a rebuild when he took over, but he helped make them competitive quickly. 

Why they'll go under

The offensive line is improved but it is not a strength. Barkley is one of the most impressive running back prospects to enter the NFL in years, but it's much harder for a running back to make a significant impact when his team is losing and playing from behind. Eli could be washed. He has looked bad the past few years. If the locker room goes to hell in a handbasket under Shurmur in Year 1 -- there are still a ton of personalities on this roster -- it's not difficult to imagine OBJ doing something weird and things getting awkward. He has already done a dog pee celebration and proposed to a kicking net. Good luck predicting what he'll do next. The defense has the personnel to be successful, but a couple of injuries or bad, ahem, apples and things could easily fall apart. 

Early schedule analysis 

The standard "May schedule analysis" caveat applies here, but this is a BRUTAL start for the Giants. They open with the Jaguars in Week 1, a VERY quick test of the offensive line improvements. Then they do a Texas Two-Step with the Cowboys and Texans the next two weeks, before drawing the Saints at home in Week 4. The Panthers on the road in a Jonathan Stewart Revenge Game looms large for Week 5 before they get the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles at home four days later on Thursday night. At least they get a mini-bye before playing the Falcons in Atlanta the next week on Monday night! 

The NFC East drew the NFC South this year and the Giants drew the three best teams in that division before Week 8, plus the Jaguars, plus the Texans (a bounceback candidate), plus two divisional games. 4-4 into their bye -- they play the Redskins in Week 8 before getting a Week 9 break -- would be impressive. 

What they're saying

"You know why they're going to go under? Because ... they ... STINK. Because the team's not any good. And the offensive line's not any good. You know what Nate Solder is? He's an above average tackle being paid like Walter Jones because the Giants needed a left tackle. Maybe Will Hernandez is Alan Faneca. Maybe he's not! I still don't think this offensive line's very good. I think Saquon Barkley -- it's not a knock on the player or the prospect, I think he's great, [but] I don't think it's a great place for him to be in. I think Eli Manning, and I'm the biggest Eli Manning fanboy of all time -- I think Eli's washed. I think this team's screwed! I think there's a better chance the Giants are back at the top in two years than they are competing for a Super Bowl in the next two years." 

-- CBS Sports Nick Kostos on the Pick Six Podcast (follow Nick on Twitter here and make sure and watch Nick on CBS Sports HQ, our live, streaming OTT network that you can check out on the web or via Amazon/Apple/Roku/Xbox/Playstation/etc)

The pick

After looking at their schedule, the Vegas number makes more sense. You run through it and, even giving them a split Redskins and Cowboys divisional games, they're in a dogfight to get to 8-8. I had them 7-8 heading into Week 17 against the Cowboys at home, which is probably not good enough to be a playoff team. I'm high on Barkley on how he helps the team in the immediate future, so I'm fine buying on this over, but I don't love it as much as I did when I saw the number initially. 

VERDICT: OVER