Conventional wisdom says the Patriots are 60 minutes away from winning their sixth Lombardi Trophy. In his career, Tom Brady has mounted 42 fourth-quarter comebacks and 53 game-winning drives, including 11 in the postseason. (Eleven!) Not surprisingly, New England is just as dangerous when playing with a lead; in the Brady era, they are 147-25 in games where they score first, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

But instead of throwing up their hands, dropping their heads and sulking all the way back to Philly, the Eagles are actually going to take a run at this -- and for good reason. For starters, they have the league's No. 5 defense, according to Football Outsiders' metric, and they're nearly as efficient against the pass (7th) as the run (3rd). And while, yes, the Patriots do have six Super Bowl titles, they could just as easily have two or three; the Falcons blew a 25-point lead last year, and two years before that, the Seahawks inexplicably decided to throw at the 1-yard line instead of give the ball to Marshawn Lynch. In Super Bowl XXXVIII, the Panthers' kickoff out of bounds in the closing minutes proved to be the difference.

This isn't to say the Patriots are where they are because they're the galaxy's luckiest team, but that the combination of the game's greatest coach, greatest quarterback and a little luck has translated into the game's greatest team of the century.

The Eagles can take solace in that; even with all these perceived advantages nothing was ever easy for them in the Super Bowl. Put another way: It would be silly to dismiss Philly outright. This may help explain why, after the line opened with the Eagles as 5.5-point underdogs, it's now holding at 4 points.

So which side of the Super Bowl line do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Patriots-Eagles you need to jump on, plus what X-factor determines the outcome, all from a Vegas legend who's 9-3 on Eagles' games.

Gambling interests aside, there are other reasons to like the Eagles' chances. Remember, the end was nigh after Carson Wentz tore his ACL in December. There was no way backup Nick Foles could pick up the slack, much less recapture anything resembling the form he displayed in 2013 when he started 10 games for Chip Kelly's Eagles and threw 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Instead, Foles was inconsistent in three regular-season starts, which went a long way in explaining why the NFC's No. 1 seed was an underdog at home first in their divisional matchup against the Falcons and then again in the championship game against the Vikings.

Foles' performance varied between efficient and spectacular in those two games, and for the playoffs he completed 78 percent of his passes with three touchdowns, no turnovers and a passer rating of 122.1 (including a 141.4 rating against the Vikings). But as ESPN.com's Bill Barnwell points out, mind-blowing performances in one playoff game game doesn't predict subsequent postseason success. 

As an example, there are seven instances since 2001 of a quarterback posting a passer rating better than Foles' 141.4 in a playoff win. It's a group that includes Chad Pennington, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson and two performances from Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, all of whom are far more pedigreed than Foles. Those seven passers went 3-4 the following week with an average passer rating of 82.6.

But here's the good news: The Eagles aren't solely reliant on Foles to carry them to their first Lombardi Trophy. If that burden falls anywhere it's on the defense. But the unit has been up to the task for most of the season and the entirety of the playoffs and is now one game away from a Super Bowl title. This is no top-secret strategy for making this happen; simply put, the Eagles have to stop the league's best player.

"You cannot beat New England unless you get to the head, and the head is Tom Brady," former Ravens linebacker and future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis told The Talk of Fame Network recently. "So, I think Philly is going to have a tough task on how do they dial up blitzes without letting him know what coverages you're in or doing. That's one of the successes we had against Tom over the years."

Again, nothing groundbreaking in Lewis' words, but he's exactly right. In last year's Super Bowl, the Falcons, which came into that game with the 26th-ranked defense, harassed Brady for more than a half. The Patriots had just three points midway through the third quarter before exhaustion set in and Brady took over. (When it was over, the Falcons' defense was on the field for 99 plays, which is the equivalent of a game and a half condensed to three-and-a-half hours.)

And two weeks ago, the NFL's best defense this season, the Jaguars, harassed Brady for nearly three quarters. Jacksonville led by 10 -- in Gillette Stadium, mind you -- but the defense looked tight and out of sorts in the final quarter, right as Brady and the Pats' offense was finding its stride. And while Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels deserve credit for their on-the-fly adjustments, it didn't help the Jaguars' cause that they suddenly stopped being aggressive. That finally allowed Brady time in the pocket, and he summarily and repeatedly picked apart the defense to the surprise of no one.

This isn't to say the Eagles need to blitz Brady silly because he's so incredibly adept at getting the ball out quickly. But the Eagles do need to pressure him with their front four, and that starts with all-world defensive tackle Fletcher Cox.

"Their defensive line, we can all agree, is better than the offensive line in New England," TheMMQB.com's Andy Benoit told the No-Huddle Podcast this week. "That's where they have the advantage. The question is, how do we get to that ... How do we make that play out. On New England's side, they're going to try and take that out of the equation. It comes down to a deep drop-back passing offense, and now they've evolved into that.

"We've seen the Patriots transform back into that spread offense we've always known. They've been seamless in that transition, not many teams can do that. My guess is, they'll want to do that to take Philly's defensive line out of the equation ... Get the ball out before they can sack us."

To repeat: There is no great secret to beating Brady and the Patriots. In the simplest terms, it comes down to beating the man in front of you and doing it for 60 minutes. It won't be easy but the Eagles' defense is more than capable of doing just that.

Prediction: Eagles 21, Patriots 20

Super Bowl MVP: Fletcher Cox

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