2022 NFL odds, picks: Cowboys, Jets present good value as initial win totals for upcoming season are released
Here's a rundown of the opening win totals for all 32 teams
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3 min read
The 2022 season will be here before you know it, but we do still have a number of mile markers to hit before we reach September and the start of the regular season. Most notably, the NFL Draft is still on the horizon, so teams are still very much constructing their rosters as they prepare for the upcoming campaign. The actual schedule itself has also yet to be released, so we don't have an exact view of how each path to Super Bowl LVII will look for teams, although we do know the full slate of opponents.
Despite the fact that some of those pieces to the overall puzzle are still waiting to be put in their place, the oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook have released their opening win totals for all 32 clubs for the 2022 season. Only three teams sit at the 11.5 wins mark -- the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those three teams are within the top five of the highest odds to win the Super Bowl next year, alongside the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, who are positioned at 10.5 and 10 wins, respectively.
Below, you'll find a full rundown of all the opening win totals, and below that, we reveal a couple of our early best bets.
| Team | Opening Win Totals | Over/Under Odds |
|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | 11.5 | -125/+105 |
| Green Bay Packers | 11.5 | -120/+100 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | +100/-120 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | -130/+110 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | +100/-120 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 | +100/-120 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | -105/-115 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | -130/+110 |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | -110/-100 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | -110/-110 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9.5 | -105/-115 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | -110/-110 |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | -110/-110 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | -110/-110 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 | +100/-120 |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 | -135/+115 |
| Miami Dolphins | 8.5 | -135/+115 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | +105/-125 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8.5 | +110/-130 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | +105/-125 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | +105/-125 |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | +110/-130 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | -130/+110 |
| New York Giants | 7 | +105/-125 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 | +105/-125 |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 | -140/+120 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 | -110/-110 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6 | -110/-110 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6 | -130/+110 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5.5 | +125/-145 |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | -110/-110 |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 | -125/+105 |
While we gander for some value across these opening totals, the Cowboys over 10.5 wins at +100 is a worthwhile look. On top of their yearly slate with their NFC East rivals, Dallas will face the NFC North and AFC South this upcoming season. Holding serve at home against the division and possibly sweeping them on the road (as they did in 2021) would quickly put Dallas at six wins. They also are set to host the Bears, Lions, and Texans at home, which should be three more layup games, bringing them to nine wins total. They'll travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, but that is another game that Dallas should be favored heavily to win whenever they head down there in 2022, barring any sort of catastrophic injury.
That hypothetical path lands them with 10 wins and home games against the Colts, Bengals, and Buccaneers still on the table along with road matchups against the Packers, Vikings, Rams, and Titans. Dallas will likely be favored against the Colts at home and could very well be road favorites in Tennessee and Minnesota. That's roughly 13 winnable games that are in realistic view for the Cowboys, which is plenty of cushion to cross that 10.5-win hurdle.
Last season, Dallas had the No. 2 ranked defense in DVOA, and that unit should continue to be among the top of the league. Offensively, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will lead the passing attack.
Meanwhile, 5.5 total wins for the New York Jets in 2022 seems a bit too high. They have three winnable games at home in the Jaguars, Bears, and Lions, but their other home opponents include the Bengals and Ravens, along with their AFC East rivals in the Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots. On the road, it's much tougher sledding with the Browns, Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Seahawks, and Vikings on the schedule. It's possible that New York could beat a Russell Wilson-less Seattle club, but that still only has them at four wins. Maybe they snag a win against the Patriots or Dolphins, and they could get lucky and face a Browns team that is awaiting a possible suspension of quarterback Deshaun Watson. However, a lot would need to go right for New York to see six-plus wins in my mind.
