Agent's Take: Has the potential for a Colts title run been squandered?

Ryan Grigson earned NFL Executive of the Year honors in 2012 as a rookie general manager because he oversaw a roster overhaul in which the Indianapolis Colts went from a league-worst 2-14 record in 2011 to a surprising wild card playoff berth. Incremental progress has been made under Grigson since the 2012 season. The Colts have advanced a round further in the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, making it to the AFC Championship this past January.

A Super Bowl 50 appearance will await the Colts if the progression continues this season. The Colts are a trendy Super Bowl pick and a championship favorite among Las Vegas oddsmakers, along with the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos.

Turning the Colts into a consistent playoff team without undergoing a lengthy rebuilding process like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders is no small accomplishment. However, despite Grigson's success, he might be the DeMarco Murray of NFL general managers.

Murray was named the 2014 NFL Offensive Player of the Year for gaining a league-leading 1,845 rushing yards. Although Murray won the rushing title by almost 500 yards, there's a perception that his success was primarily due to running behind the NFL's best offensive line.

Joseph Randle, who is assuming Murray's role after last year’s rushing champion signed with the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency, helped lead this charge during the offseason when he stated "there was a lot of meat left on the bone" in referring to the 1,845-yard season. Emmitt Smith, the NFL's all-time leading rusher, echoed Randle's sentiments with his assessment that Murray could have had 2,500 yards if he had taken advantage of the opportunities he was given. Future Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson quickly agreed with Smith's opinion.

Grigson's rebuilding efforts were jump-started because 2012 first-overall pick Andrew Luck quickly exceeded expectations as a rookie. Luck has been the catalyst for the Colts making the smooth and rare transition from one franchise quarterback, Peyton Manning, to another one without missing a beat.

The comparison with Murray stems from Grigson being the beneficiary of great timing, as the biggest no-brainer No. 1 overall pick since John Elway coincided with the Colts' down year, while some of his personnel moves, particularly in free agency, haven't panned out. Here's a look at Grigson's track record to determine whether the comparison is valid.

The Trent Richardson trade is one the Colts would like to have back. (USATSI)

NFL Draft

Grigson hit a home run with the 2012 rookie class outside of Luck. Tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, who were taken in the second and third rounds respectively, made an immediate impact and remain key contributors. Third-round pick T.Y. Hilton has been one of the biggest steals of that draft. Fifth-round pick Vick Ballard was a 1,000-yard running back in the making before knee and Achilles injuries derailed his career. Grigson also plucked inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman, who has started all 45 regular season games he's played for the Colts, from the Canadian Football League after his first attempt at an NFL career failed.

But there have been too many strikeouts and not enough extra-base hits with the drafts since Grigson's inaugural rookie class. The 2013 draft class has been a disappointment. Its saving grace is Grigson giving his 2013 second-round pick to the Miami Dolphins for Vontae Davis in a 2012 preseason trade. Davis has put himself in the conversation of the NFL's best cornerbacks because of his play since joining the Colts.

2013 first-round pick Bjoern Werner hasn't developed into much of a pass rusher at outside linebacker. He was a healthy scratch in last season's AFC Championship and should only see spot duty this season. The 2013 draft picks have produced one marginal starter in center Khaled Holmes, who was selected in the fourth round.

Grigson made one of the worst trades in recent NFL history by dealing his 2014 first-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for Trent Richardson early in the 2013 season, but that move obscures the contributions of the 2014 draft class. Second-round pick Jack Mewhort was arguably the best left guard in the AFC South in his rookie campaign. He has moved to right tackle this season. Third-round pick Donte Moncrief had two 100-yard games as the team's third wide receiver. Fifth-round pick Jonathan Newsome led Colts with 6.5 sacks in limited action.

The Colts released Richardson this offseason. During the 2012 third-overall pick's 29 games with the Colts, he gained 977 yards on 316 carries for a meager 3.1 yards per attempt. Giving up 2014's 22nd-overall pick cost the Colts a chance to land a defensive player that would have been more impactful than Richardson.

The Colts were on the wrong end of another trade in 2013. Jerry Hughes was sent to the Buffalo Bills for inside linebacker Kelvin Sheppard. The Colts released Sheppard after one season while Hughes has developed into one of the league's better pass rushers. However, Grigson can't be faulted for getting rid of Hughes. He was a bigger disappointment with the Colts than Werner has been.

Grigson's 2015 draft class didn't get rave reviews from draft pundits. His best-player-available approach produced a luxury pick in this year's first round. Phillip Dorsett was taken 29th overall despite wide receiver being arguably the deepest position on the team. The undersized speedster was viewed as a potential replacement for Hilton, who was in his contract year until signing a five-year, $65-million contract extension last month. Safety Landon Collins, who was selected by the New York Giants with the first pick in the second round (33rd overall) and defensive tackle Malcom Brown, who the New England Patriots took 32nd overall, were most mentioned as alternative choices.

Another main criticism of the draft class is that Grigson didn't address the offensive line, an obvious weakness, until the seventh round with offensive tackle Denzelle Good. The Division II lineman from Mars Hills College is a project.

Defensive linemen Henry Anderson and David Parry, third- and fifth-round selections, respectively, from Stanford, are already starters. Anderson is in the lineup because of injuries.

Cornerback D'Joun Smith, a third-round pick, and safety Clayton Geathers, a fourth-round pick, are expected to contribute on obvious passing downs. Sixth-round pick Josh Robinson and undrafted free agent Tyler Varga should also see action since they are currently the team's only backup running backs. It remains to be seen whether the critiques of this rookie class are correct.

Grigson's background is in scouting. Most notably, he was Philadelphia's director of college scouting for four years (2006-09), so his lack of success in finding talent in the later rounds of the draft is surprising. None of his 2012 or 2013 picks selected in the fifth-though-seventh rounds are still on the Colts' roster.

The roster composition is also a little surprising given Grigson's scouting pedigree. Only 29 of the 58 players on the roster or injured reserve are homegrown.

Gosder Cherilus goes down as a high-priced bust. (USATSI)

Free Agency

Grigson hasn't gotten nearly as good of a return on his investment from free agency as with the draft. He was essentially operating with one hand tied behind his back in his first year because of the salary cap consequences of a roster purge. The most important moves were re-signing wide receiver Reggie Wayne, who flirted with jumping ship to the Patriots, and franchise player Robert Mathis to multi-year deals.

The Colts had a league-leading $38 million in dead money, which are cap charges for players no longer on the roster. That left the Colts with effectively a $90-million cap for the 2012 season.

2013 was a different story because Grigson had over $40 million of cap space at his disposal. He squandered a tremendous opportunity to significantly upgrade the roster while Luck was at his cheapest. The quarterback's four-year rookie contract is worth a little more than $22.1 million, and the Colts have exercised a fifth year for him in 2016 at $16.155 million.

The following six players were given contracts in 2013 totaling more than $125 million.

Colts' big 2013 signings
Name	Position	Contract Guarantees	Deal Total	Length	Status
Gosder Cherilus	OT	$16,000,000	$35,000,000	5 Years	Released
LaRon Landry	S	$14,000,000	$24,000,000	4 Years	Released
Ricky Jean-Francois	DL	$8,500,000	$22,000,000	4 Years	Released
Erik Walden	OLB	$8,000,000	$16,000,000	4 Years	Starter
Greg Toler	CB	$5,000,000	$14,250,000	3 Years	Starter
Donald Thomas	OG	$3,500,000	$14,000,000	4 Years	Released
Total		$55,500,000	$125,250,000

None of these players were true difference makers. The Colts made Cherilus the NFL's highest paid right tackle with his deal. It was a distinction he still held when the Colts released him in the preseason. Cherilus performed capably during his first season in Indianapolis. He was slowed by groin, knee and shoulder injuries in his second year.

Injuries also prevented Thomas from contributing. He only played in two games during his two years with the Colts because of a torn quadriceps tendon in his right leg before his release at the roster cutdowns. Jean-Francois was best suited as a rotational defensive lineman who could provide depth.

Landry, who served a four-game suspension in 2014 for violating the NFL's policy on performance enhancing drugs, was also a disappointment. He is currently banned for 10 games for another PED violation.

The Colts aren't the only team to be aggressive during 2013 free agency with little to show for it. The Miami Dolphins spent more than the Colts, and their only impact player from that free-agent class is cornerback Brent Grimes.

Their failures don't excuse Grigson's inability to amass talent in 2013. A more prudent free agency approach would have adopting the strategy employed by the Denver Broncos after getting blown out by the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII. Denver focused on proven quality starters in their prime, with DeMarcus Ware being the only older addition.

Landry and Cherilus were the only established starters out of the six. One player that the Colts reportedly didn't pursue that would have been a better and cheaper option than Landry is Glover Quin. The 2014 second-team All-Pro signed a five-year, $23.5-million deal with the Detroit Lions.

Free agency was more fruitful last year even though Grigson wasn't as active. The Broncos were denied their first choice to fill their middle linebacker vacancy when D'Qwell Jackson accepted a four-year, $22 million deal with the Colts.

The crown jewel of the free agent class was supposed to be defensive end Arthur Jones, who signed a five-year, $33-million deal with $16 million in guarantees. He played for head coach Chuck Pagano during the 2011 season when Pagano was his defensive coordinator with the Baltimore Ravens. Jones has been bitten by the injury bug; he missed seven games in 2014 with an ankle injury and he's out for the 2015 season because of another ankle injury.

Journeyman safety Mike Adams, who signed a bargain basement one-year deal, was the team's most productive free agent acquisition. He was a Pro Bowl alternate in 2014.

Grigson returned to his aggressiveness in free agency this year armed with more than $40 million in cap space, which was partially from cutting losses with some of the roster mistakes from 2013. A different direction was taken by signing four players over the age of 30: outside linebacker Trent Cole, running back Frank Gore, offensive guard Todd Herremans and wide receiver Andre Johnson. None of the four received huge money or signed for longer than three years. Johnson, who is 34, received the largest contract at $21 million over three years. The deals are also structured so there will be minimal cap ramifications if age catches up to the players. Adams, who is also over 30, was re-signed to a two year, $4.25-million deal (worth a maximum of $5.95 million through salary escalators and incentives).

It is a bit curious that Grigson opted for Cole, who turns 33 next month, over the more versatile Pernell McPhee, who is six years younger. The first two years of McPhee's five-year, $38.75-million contract with the Chicago Bears, which are worth $15.875 million, aren't that much more than the two year, $14-million deal (worth up to $15.75 million with incentives) Cole received. McPhee's deal is structured so the Bears can walk away in the last three years without any negative cap consequences. As a former Baltimore Raven, McPhee would have had an easy transition to Pagano's defense.

A residual effect from the disastrous 2013 free agent class is that resources had to be used on safety Dwight Lowery and defensive lineman Kendall Langford, both 29 years old, instead of on other positions.

Anthony Castonzo is a rare plus on Indy's offensive line. (USATSI)

Roster Strength

The Colts didn't have the feel of a legitimate Super Bowl contender after the 45-7 blowout loss to the New England Patriots in last year's AFC Championship Game. That loss dropped the Colts to a 1-5 record against last season's division winners. The Colts were outscored 224-116 in those six 2014 contests.

The 30-somethings signed in free agency are considered upgrades for the Colts, although each player is past his prime. There are 14 players age-30 or older on the Colts, which is the most in the NFL. The Colts are still at a talent deficit compared to the other Super Bowl 50 contenders despite the offseason acquisitions.

The following chart looks at the number of above average players, according to Pro Football Focus, on the rosters of the contending teams.

Contenders' good-to-elite players
Team	Good	High Quality	Elite	Total above-average players
Broncos	7	7	3	17
Patriots	10	2	3	15
Packers	4	6	4	14
Seahawks	3	6	4	13
Colts	5	3	1	9
Source: Pro Football Focus

Five of the Colts' nine above-average players are on offense. Only one of the team's nine players, Anthony Castonzo, is an offensive lineman. Castonzo, a holdover from Bill Polian's regime, is in the good player category. The left tackle just received a four year, $43.812-million extension with $34 million in guarantees.

Three of the Colts' starting offensive linemen are considered subpar by PFF. Holmes and left guard Lance Louis are rated as poor. Right guard Herremans is considered as below average.

The Patriots have more players categorized as good than the Colts have in the three classifications combined. Green Bay and Seattle's 10 players each in the upper two tiers are also more than Indianapolis' nine players in all three tiers.

The other contenders average nearly 15 above-average players. Two other teams with a comparable amount of above-average players are the Eagles and Ravens, with 15 and 16, respectively.

Luck is a great equalizer. His ability to mask deficiencies is similar to Elway's during the first half of his career. Elway lost handily in his first three Super Bowl appearances because his teams were overmatched. It wasn't until the end of his career, when he was a complementary player instead of driving force behind Denver's success, that he won two Super Bowls.

Luck has only had one 100-yard rusher during his 55 games with the Colts. That was in Week 15 of his rookie season, when Ballard had 105 yards against the Houston Texans. Gore should be able to break the streak without a 100-yard rusher, which is at 41 games, this season. He had four 100-yard games in 2014, including two straight to end the season.

Outlook

The inability to put together a more complete roster won't matter if the playoff progression continues. It will most likely mean the Colts got their money's worth from the older, short-term rentals, and 34-year-old Robert Mathis was able to generate a pass rush in his return from a difficult torn Achilles rehab.

The disappointing loss to the Buffalo Bills in the season opener shouldn't be a cause for panic. The Colts rebounded from an 0-2 start in 2014 to win the AFC South, which is still the NFL's weakest division. The Colts should continue to feast on divisional opponents. The team has a 15-1 record against the division over the last three seasons.

The first real litmus test will come in Week 6 when the Colts host the Patriots. In the last three games against New England, the Colts have been outscored 130-49 and have given up an average of 219 yards on the ground.

Father Time quickly catching up the older players will probably signal the end of Pagano's tenure in Indianapolis because of the reported tension between him and Grigson, which owner Jim Irsay denied, and his lame duck coaching status. An extremely disappointing season could put Grigson, who is under contract through the 2016 season, under the microscope.

Either way, it will be critical in the coming years for the Colts to have more drafts similar to the 2012 class and avoid free agents mistakes like the ones in 2013 because there won't be as much margin for error with player acquisitions when Andrew Luck becomes the NFL's highest-paid player, which should happen next year.

Joel Corry is a former sports agent who helped found Premier Sports & Entertainment, a sports management firm that represents professional athletes and coaches. Prior to his tenure at Premier, Joel worked for Management Plus Enterprises, which represented Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Ronnie Lott.

You can follow him on Twitter: @corryjoel | You can email him at jccorry@gmail.com.