The reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers rebounded from their first loss of the 2021 NFL schedule last week, posting a 19-17 victory over the Patriots in Tom Brady's much-hyped return to New England. Including last year's playoffs, Tampa Bay has won 11 of its last 12 contests and four straight at home. The Buccaneers will hope to continue rolling and are 10-point favorites against the visiting Miami Dolphins in the latest Week 5 NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Many will jump on them with their NFL survivor pool picks.

Other favorites that could attract attention for NFL knockout pool picks include the Patriots (-8 against the Houston Texans), Minnesota Vikings (-10 against the Detroit Lions) and Dallas Cowboys (-7 against the New York Giants). Before making any Week 5 NFL survivor picks, you need to see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to find the best values in the survivor pool format. The team winning the most model simulations each week is a perfect 4-0 after the Bills (87 percent) easily dispatched the Texans, joining the 49ers in Week 1 (75 percent), the Buccaneers in Week 2 (79 percent) and both the Cardinals and Ravens in Week 3 (79 percent) as winners for survivor contestants who used those teams over the first four weeks. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 5 NFL survivor pool predictions

For Week 5, the model is shying away from the Kansas City Chiefs against the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. Both teams possess potent offenses, as they are tied for second in the NFL with an average of 33.5 points per game. But the Bills have been much better on the other side of the ball, ranking first in the league in total defense (216.8 yards), while the Chiefs are 31st (437.8) and first against the pass (148.8).

Kansas City also ranks next to last in scoring defense (31.3 points) and rushing touchdowns allowed (eight) while coming in 30th against the run (146 yards). Buffalo owns the sixth-best offense (404 yards) and is fifth in the NFL in rushing (145.3). Even though Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown a league-high 14 TD passes, the Bills are too dangerous for the model's projections this week.

How to make Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is backing a team that has been playing extremely well defensively. Picking this team not only will get you to Week 6, it also will put you in the optimal position to go deep in your NFL survivor pool. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 5 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 5, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL, and find out.