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The Las Vegas Raiders' playoff hopes were all but extinct a week ago, yet they pulled a surprising victory over the Cleveland Browns to remain alive in the AFC playoff race. The Denver Broncos had an opportunity to emerge in the AFC wild card race, but had a tough loss to the Cincinnati Bengals that significantly hurt their chance at the postseason. 

Both Vegas and Denver are essentially playing in an elimination game this week, as the loser of this AFC West rivalry will take a significant hit in going to the postseason. Neither team can afford an eighth loss in a tight AFC wild card race that will surely come down to the final week.  

Can the Raiders keep their momentum going? Will the Broncos bounce back after last week? Here's a preview of Sunday's AFC West showdown: 

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Dec. 26 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium (Paradise, Nevada)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: PICK, O/U 41

Key matchups

Derek Carr vs. Broncos' secondary

In the Raiders' first matchup with the Broncos, Carr completed 18 of 27 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns -- having one of his best games of the year. Carr had a variant of passes that went for 21+ air yards, completing 4 of 6 passes that went 21+ air yards for 152 yards and two touchdowns.

Denver struggling against passes that travel for 21+ air yards is uncommon, since opposing quarterbacks have completed just 26% of their passes that traveled that distance against their defense this year (fifth best in NFL). Those same quarterbacks average just 9.5 yards per attempt, the third best in the league. Even with Denver's success against the deep pass, they have allowed seven touchdowns on passes with 21+ air yards, tied for second most in the NFL.

Carr and the Raiders may test the Broncos downfield again, although the statistics suggest going underneath may be the better option in the rematch. 

Turnover battle

In the first meeting between the teams, Denver had an unusual day protecting the football. Denver threw three interceptions and fumbled the football once in the loss to Vegas, as the four turnovers were a season high. The Broncos are typically good protecting the football, having just 16 turnovers on the year (ninth fewest in NFL heading into Week 16).

While the Broncos protect the football well, the Raiders don't typically force takeaways. The Denver win was the only game Vegas forced more than two takeaways, showcasing this game was an anomaly for a defense that has just 13 on the year (tied for fifth fewest in NFL). 

Prediction

The Broncos' loss to the Raiders seems inexplicable, given the odds Vegas had against them heading into the matchup. The Raiders just fired Jon Gruden and interim coach Rich Bisaccia led the team in his first game, as Vegas had an inspiring performance to pull off the victory. This loss was just one of two games Denver allowed 30 points and 400 yards this year, very uncharacteristic of this Broncos team. 

Denver has a lot of losses that are hard to explain, which is part of the reason why the Broncos are 7-7 in the first place. This game is tough to pick since the numbers suggest Denver should win, yet Vegas as all the momentum -- and doesn't have a backup quarterback set to start in this game. 

Tough call this week, but the Raiders find a way to stay alive in the wild card race. 

Pick:  Raiders 26, Broncos 23