Chargers vs. Patriots prediction: Justin Herbert and Drake Maye square off in NFL playoff showdown
Let's preview Sunday night's Wild Card matchup between L.A. and New England
•
5 min read
The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers are no strangers to facing one another in the playoffs. Over the course of Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers' tenures, these organizations squared off three times, with the most recent contest coming back in the 2018 divisional round. Ironically enough, that postseason was the last time either franchise has recorded a playoff win, and both are trying to rectify that on Sunday night in Foxborough.
This time around, while it won't be a Brady vs. Rivers clash, we do get quite the quarterback matchup as Drake Maye and Justin Herbert represent two of the brightest young quarterbacks that the league has to offer.
In Year 2, Maye has put together an MVP-caliber season that helped propel New England from a 4-13 team over his rookie season to an AFC East-winning 14-3 club in 2025. As for Herbert, he's continued to blossom in his second season under Jim Harbaugh, ranking among the top-10 passing yard leaders in the league. And that quarterback head-to-head is just the tip of the iceberg of what should be a highly competitive playoff contest.
NFL Wild Card Weekend odds, predictions, expert picks: Best bets, where to watch, NFL playoffs, stream, more
Tyler Sullivan
Before we dive further into this matchup, let's make sure you have all the information you need to check out this game.
Where to watch Chargers vs. Patriots live
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 11 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough)
- TV: NBC
- Odds: Patriots -3.5, O/U 46.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Key questions
Can Drake Maye stay hot vs. Chargers defense?
New England's second-year quarterback has taken a quantum leap in Year 2, ascending as high as an MVP candidate. Maye became just the 10th quarterback since 1970 to lead the NFL in completion percentage and yards per attempt. He's also now the youngest of that group to do so. One of Maye's key strengths this season has been his proficiency in throwing the deep ball, but that could be put to the test on Sunday as he faces a stout Chargers secondary. Both Maye and the Chargers defense rank top-two in the league in completions, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns on or against passes of 15-plus air yards.
| Passing 15+ air yards this season | Drake Maye | Chargers defense |
|---|---|---|
Completions | 71 | 31 |
Completion percentage | 58% | 33% |
Passing touchdown | 12 | 4 |
If L.A. can keep New England's deep passing attack on the tarmac and force them into more of a dink-and-dunk attack, it'll go a long way towards keeping this game close. Conversely, if Maye can find success with chunk plays through the air, we could be in for a shootout with Herbert on the other side.
Can the Chargers protect Justin Herbert?
On the one hand, you have to commend the Chargers for withstanding the losses of both star tackles in Rashawn Slater (torn patellar tendon in August), along with Joe Alt (season-ending ankle injury in Week 9), and still reaching the postseason. However, their ability to protect the quarter has naturally worsened throughout the year. Overall, Los Angeles surrendered a franchise-high 60 sacks this season, the fifth most ever by a playoff team. Specifically, the offense's production after losing Alt took a noticeable dip. With Alt, the team was averaging 25.3 points per game. After he went down, that average dropped to 21.3 points per game. As it relates to Herbert, he averaged 8.3 yards per attempt this season when Alt was blocking for him, and that fell to 6.5 yards per attempt in his absence. New England doesn't have the best pass rush, but they are no slouches either, ranking just outside the top 10 in pressure rate (12th). So L.A.'s ability (or inability) to protect Herbert will be a central storyline.
How does New England look vs. playoff competition?
As impressive as New England's turnaround has been this season, increasing its win total by +10 (tied for the best year-over-year increase in NFL history), it's worth noting that its road was pretty soft. The Patriots' strength of schedule was the easiest since the 1999 Rams. They were 13-1 against teams with losing records this year and 1-2 against teams with winning records. Can you fault the Patriots for simply playing against teams that the NFL put in front of them? Of course not. However, we can be a bit skeptical of their actual ceiling until they prove to us that they can take down playoff-caliber competition, and that starts on Sunday against the 11-6 Chargers.
X factor
When we talk about some of the NFL's most talented quarterbacks, Justin Herbert comes up more often than not. He's coming off a 2025 regular season where he ranked inside the top 10 in passing yards, rushing yards, and passing touchdowns. Herbert has the second-most passing yards in his first six seasons (24,820) all-time, only looking up to Peyton Manning.
As prolific a start as Herbert has enjoyed to begin his career, that success has been exclusive to the regular season. He's 0-2 in his playoff career, and those two losses have been noteworthy. The first was the Chargers blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars during the 2022 playoffs. The second came last year, when he and L.A. were blown out by 20 by the Texans, as he threw four interceptions and posted a career-low 44% completion rate. That naturally raises the question of whether Herbert is the type of quarterback who can succeed in the postseason. If what we've seen in the past is who he'll remain to be, this game will be over in a hurry. If he can perform more as he has in the regular season, the narrative will begin to change, making him a true wild card over this Wild Card Weekend.
Chargers vs. Patriots prediction, pick
I think we're at a point with Herbert where we need to see it to believe it before deciding to back him in a playoff setting. Due to everything we mentioned above, it seems a little dicey to trust him in this spot, particularly being on the road and having a depleted offensive line. Meanwhile, the Patriots have gotten healthier in the trenches in recent weeks, welcoming back left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams in Week 18. Campbell should help keep Maye upright, while Williams will likely contribute to Herbert hitting the turf more than he'd like. Given that this game will be played in Foxborough, we'll say that helps New England get over the hump en route to the divisional round. (Prediction: Patriots 24, Chargers 20 | Pick: Patriots -3.5).
